Public Kempax report

Daily After Market report · 2026-07-22

Kempax Research

Loop report · 2026-07-22

US Market After-Market Report — July 22, 2026

Generated: 2026-07-23T03:48 UTC after-market session Session: loopsession-5b117afa-5bde-44df-b679-79f335829093 Run: looprun-52c2a640-2070-44c2-96d0-69481c587210 Loop: Daily After Market report loop-bd10496e-1ccb-49a8-bef4-e0db49293bab Research Base: research latest.md loopsession-450dc792-1c26-4060-a08e-375acc9cf2c5 Status: Research complete — pending investment team review

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Executive Summary

Defensive rotation accelerated on July 22, and after-hours mega-cap tech earnings delivered a decisive negative shock. The regular session was a low-volume consolidation across major indices — SPY −0.12%, DIA flat, QQQ −0.51% — with Energy +1.20% and Utilities +2.25% as the only conviction sectors. Small caps IWM −0.93% lagged badly, confirming narrow breadth. After the close, Alphabet GOOGL and Tesla TSLA reported: GOOGL fell 4% on negative free cash flow driven by $45B capex, and TSLA fell 5% on an adjusted EPS miss. Nasdaq futures dropped 1% in after-hours trading, setting up a likely gap-down open on July 23. The technical picture was already fragile — SPY pinned below SMA10 749.43 , QQQ below all three key moving averages with a failed July 21 bounce — and these earnings results add a bearish catalyst to a market already in a defensive crouch.

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1. Major Index Performance

Session Summary — July 22, 2026

Index ETF Close Jul 22 Daily Chg 7-Day Chg 30-Day Trend ------- ----- ---------------- ----------- ----------- -------------- S&P 500 SPY 747.41 −0.12% −0.59% Neutral NASDAQ-100 QQQ 705.35 −0.51% −1.99% Weakening Dow Jones DIA 521.47 −0.01% −0.61% Neutral Russell 2000 IWM 293.79 −0.93% −0.24% Neutral

Index Levels from reported market data : - S&P 500: 7,499 −0.14% - NASDAQ Composite: 25,691 −0.57% - Dow Jones Industrial: 52,219 −0.01%

Weekly Trajectory July 14 → July 22

Date SPY QQQ DIA IWM Volume Signal ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- --------------- Jul 14 751.83 719.69 524.69 296.52 Below avg Jul 15 754.81 717.74 525.95 297.49 Normal Jul 16 750.72 705.94 524.68 299.40 Normal Jul 17 743.29 695.33 520.81 296.51 Distribution day +29% vol Jul 20 742.09 696.06 517.94 296.03 Slightly elevated Jul 21 748.28 708.97 521.51 296.54 Low-volume bounce Jul 22 747.41 705.35 521.47 293.79 Lowest volume of period

The week was anchored by a sharp Thursday 7 17 distribution day: SPY fell from 750.72 to 743.29 −0.99% on 62.7M shares — the heaviest volume of the period +29% above the 20-day average of 48.6M . The two-day bounce that followed 7 21: +0.83%, 7 22: −0.12% traded on declining volume — 34.3M then 32.8M — indicating weak institutional conviction behind the recovery. Russell 2000 underperformance −0.93% on 7 22 alone, nearly 8x SPY's decline confirms narrow breadth and risk-off small-cap positioning.

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2. Technical Analysis

SPY — S&P 500 ETF Chart

Indicator Value Signal ----------- ------- -------- Close 747.41 — RSI 14 51.52 Neutral — dead center SMA 10 749.43 Price below bearish short-term SMA 20 745.67 Price above bullish intermediate ATR 14 7.05 0.94% daily expected range — contracting Realized Vol ann. 10.4% Moderate Max Drawdown period −1.7% Contained

Level Price Strength ------- ------- ---------- Resistance 754.47 Strong 3 swing touches Resistance 755.58 Period high Support 740.11 Strong 3 swing touches Support 716.58 Weak 1 swing touch

Structure: Neutral consolidation. SPY is pinned between the SMA10 749.43 above and SMA20 745.67 below. The trendline is flat slope +0.70 . A −0.22% down gap was detected on the latest bar. No breakout, breakdown, or base pattern is active. The 740–755 range defines the near-term battleground — a break below 740 targets 716, while a close above 755 is needed to resume the uptrend.

QQQ — NASDAQ-100 ETF Chart

Indicator Value Signal ----------- ------- -------- Close 705.35 — RSI 14 41.43 Improving from 38.87, but still below 50 SMA 10 710.96 Price below falling — bearish SMA 20 714.25 Price below falling — bearish

Structure: Bearish short-term. QQQ remains below all three key moving averages. The July 21 bounce +1.85% was not confirmed on July 22 −0.51% with volume contracting to the lowest level of the period 23.7M . The critical support is 687 July 17 intraday low . With after-hours Nasdaq futures pointing 1% lower post-GOOGL TSLA earnings, a retest of this level on July 23 is the base case.

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3. Sector Performance

7-Day Trailing July 14 → July 22

Sector ETF 7 14 Close 7 22 Close 7-Day Δ% 7 22 Daily Δ% -------- ----- ----------- ----------- ---------- --------------- Energy XLE 56.95 59.20 +3.95% +1.20% Consumer Staples XLP 83.42 84.38 +1.15% +0.38% Healthcare XLV 158.29 159.43 +0.72% −0.51% Utilities XLU 45.69 45.93 +0.53% +2.25% Financials XLF 56.18 56.05 −0.23% −0.11% Industrials XLI 180.45 178.85 −0.89% +0.11% Consumer Disc. XLY 115.90 114.02 −1.62% −0.74% Technology XLK 183.62 180.27 −1.82% −0.28%

Energy Leadership Chart

Key Observations:

Energy +3.95% 7-day is the undisputed leader. XLE has rallied four consecutive sessions, closing at 59.20 on 7 22 with above-average volume 29.5M . Rising crude oil prices are the primary driver.

Utilities +2.25% on 7 22 alone delivered the session's strongest single-day sector move. The surge from 44.92 to 45.93 suggests either a mean-reversion bounce or an early signal of rate-sensitive sector rotation.

Technology −1.82% and Consumer Discretionary −1.62% led declines. Growth tech is under distribution as rising oil prices and the 10Y Treasury at 4.63% pressure high-multiple names.

Clear defensive rotation. Only four sectors are positive over the trailing 7 days — all defensive or commodity-driven: Energy, Staples, Healthcare, and Utilities.

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4. Market Breadth & Volume

Volume Profile

Date SPY Volume vs. 20-Day Avg 48.6M Signal ------ ----------- ------------------------ -------- Jul 14 35.1M −28% Below average Jul 15 43.8M −10% Normal Jul 16 46.4M −5% Normal Jul 17 62.7M +29% Distribution day Jul 20 50.4M +4% Slightly elevated Jul 21 34.3M −29% Low-volume bounce Jul 22 32.8M −33% Lowest of period — weak conviction

Breadth Assessment: - Small caps IWM −0.93% dramatically underperforming large caps SPY −0.12% signals narrow, defensive breadth. - The declining volume on the post-July 17 bounce suggests institutional money is not rushing back in. - One clear distribution day on record; no additional distribution days since, but the lack of buying volume tempers the offset.

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5. Notable Movers & Earnings

July 22 Regular Session Movers

Ticker Move Catalyst -------- ------ ---------- SMCI Super Micro Computer +26% Record backlog reported T AT&T +4% Beat EPS estimates RKLB Rocket Lab Flat $266M U.S. govt contract; initial gains faded RDDT Reddit −8% Reports it may restrict Alphabet data access for AI training

After-Hours Earnings Critical — July 22 After Close

Ticker After-Hours Move Highlights -------- ----------------- ------------ GOOGL Alphabet − 4% Revenue +24%, cloud revenue +81%, but FCF turned negative on $45B capex TSLA Tesla − 5% Revenue +26%, adjusted EPS missed; production transition volatility cited

After-Hours Market Reaction: - Nasdaq futures down 1% at 5:45 p.m. ET following the two mega-cap earnings reports - GOOGL's $45B capex-driven negative free cash flow raises concern about the broader AI infrastructure spending cycle - TSLA's EPS miss adds to growth-stock valuation pressure

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6. Active Triggers & Risk Assessment

Scanner Triggers

Trigger Status --------- -------- Relative Strength New High ACTIVE — SPY showing relative strength vs. XLK sector ETF on a new-high basis Breakout Inactive Support Break Inactive Volume Spike Inactive Volatility Compression Inactive Pullback Inactive Moving Average Cross Inactive Earnings Risk Inactive

Risk Metrics SPY, $100K Account, 1% Risk Budget

Metric Value -------- ------- Max Drawdown 21-day −1.7% Max Gap Risk 1.15% Current Risk at Entry $987 within $1,000 budget Position Size 70 shares $52,319 Stop Price $733.31 Reward Risk Ratio 3.0

Risk metrics remain contained. The 1.7% drawdown is modest, position sizing is within the 1% risk budget, and the 3.0 reward risk ratio is favorable.

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7. Macro Context

Indicator Value Implication ----------- ------- ------------- Gold $4,137.10 +1.49% Safe-haven demand rising 10Y Treasury Yield 4.63% Modestly higher — headwind for growth valuations Crude Oil Rising Supports Energy sector, pressures broad market via inflation expectations Nasdaq Futures − 1% after-hours Bearish overnight signal post-GOOGL TSLA

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8. Forward Outlook

Scenarios for July 23

Base Case 50% probability : - Nasdaq opens gap-down, testing QQQ 700 psychological support. SPY tests SMA20 745.67 . If these levels hold through the session, the consolidation range persists. Energy and defensive sectors continue to attract rotation flows.

Bearish Case 35% probability — elevated from prior session : - QQQ breaks below 700 and retests the critical 687 July 17 low . A break below 687 triggers acceleration toward 656. SPY breaks 740 support, targeting 732. The GOOGL TSLA earnings become the catalyst that confirms the July 17 distribution day as the start of a deeper correction.

Bullish Case 15% probability — reduced : - Buyers fade the gap-down open, treating GOOGL's cloud revenue growth +81% as the more durable signal. SPY reclaims SMA10 749.43 and QQQ recovers above 710. Requires broad-based buying on above-average volume.

Key Levels — July 23

Level SPY QQQ DIA ------- ----- ----- ----- Resistance 749–750 SMA10 710 SMA10 523 SMA10 20 Pivot 747 705 521.50 Support 1 745 SMA20 700 psychological 518 Support 2 740 swing low 687 critical 513 SMA50

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9. Summary & Recommendations

Market Regime: Defensive Rotation Consolidation with a post-earnings bearish tilt.

What Changed July 21 → July 22

After-hours earnings shock: GOOGL −4% negative FCF and TSLA −5% EPS miss are the dominant new information. Nasdaq futures fell 1% in response — a material overnight shift.
Bounce failed to gain follow-through: The July 21 bounce +0.83% was met with the lowest-volume session of the period on July 22 — weak conviction.
Defensive rotation accelerated: Utilities surged +2.25% in a single session. Energy extended to 4 consecutive up-days +3.95% over 7 days . Technology and Consumer Discretionary led declines.
Small cap divergence: IWM fell −0.93% — nearly 8x the SPY decline — signaling internal breadth deterioration.
Gold and yields rising: Gold at $4,137.10 +1.49% and 10Y at 4.63% reinforce the defensive safe-haven theme.

Unresolved Risks

Earnings cascade: GOOGL's capex-driven FCF shortfall and TSLA's EPS miss may set a negative tone for the remaining mega-cap tech earnings AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN .
QQQ support at 687: With Nasdaq futures pointing lower overnight, the July 17 low is under credible threat. A break below 687 opens a path to 656 −7% .
Oil price trajectory: Continued crude strength benefits Energy but pressures the broader market through inflation and rate sensitivity.
Treasury yield at 4.63%: Rising yields remain a persistent headwind for growth tech valuations.
Low-volume bounce: If SPY cannot reclaim SMA10 749.43 on higher volume, the July 17 selloff may prove to be the start of a deeper correction.

Recommendations for investment team review

Reduce high-beta tech exposure until QQQ reclaims SMA10 710 . The after-hours earnings shock increases downside risk.
Favor Energy XLE on pullbacks toward 57 — sustained leadership with above-average volume and fundamental commodity support.
Monitor Utilities XLU for a second consecutive up-day — confirmation would signal a broader defensive rotation warranting portfolio repositioning.
Maintain SPY exposure with a 740 stop — the intermediate structure remains intact, but the overnight futures signal demands caution.
Watch GOOGL TSLA analyst revisions on July 23 for potential second-order sector effects.
Keep powder dry — mega-cap tech earnings in late July remain the binary catalyst.

Recommendation Tags

defensive-rotation energy-outperformance tech-under-pressure neutral-trend earnings-risk low-conviction-bounce watch-740-support after-hours-shock qqq-bearish

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Summary Dashboard

Dimension Assessment ----------- ------------ SPY Trend Neutral — consolidating 740–755, pinned between SMA10 and SMA20 QQQ Tech Bearish short-term — below all MAs, RSI 41.43, failed bounce DIA Dow Neutral — flat, defending SMA20 IWM Small Caps Weakening — −0.93% daily, breadth divergence Sector Leader Energy XLE +3.95% 7-day, 4 consecutive up-days Sector Laggard Technology XLK −1.82% , Consumer Discretionary XLY −1.62% Key Resistance SPY 749–750 SMA10 , QQQ 710 SMA10 Key Support SPY 740, QQQ 687 critical Active Trigger Relative Strength New High SPY vs. XLK Volume Signal Bearish — declining volume on bounce, lowest session volume Jul 22 After-Hours Bearish — Nasdaq futures −1%, GOOGL −4%, TSLA −5% Market Narrative Defensive rotation accelerating; tech earnings delivering negative surprise; consolidation phase under threat

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Sources & Evidence

1. Tradier Historical Quotes Kempax run workflow node tradier get historical quotes : - SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM daily OHLCV: July 14–22, 2026 - Sector ETFs XLE, XLP, XLV, XLU, XLF, XLI, XLY, XLK : July 14–22, 2026

2. Technical Indicators Kempax render quote chart and compute technical indicators : - SPY: SMA10 SMA20 RSI14 ATR14 — June 23 – July 22, 2026 - QQQ: SMA10 SMA20 RSI14 — June 23 – July 22, 2026 - XLE: SMA10 SMA20 — July 7–22, 2026

3. Market Structure Kempax analyze market structure : - SPY support resistance, swing points, trendline, gap detection

4. Scanner Triggers Kempax scan market triggers : - SPY vs. benchmark and XLK sector ETF — Relative Strength New High active

5. Risk Analytics Kempax calculate market risk : - SPY drawdown, position sizing, reward risk $100K account, 1% risk budget, 8% stop

6. News & Market Context Kempax search web via CloakBrowser : - Motley Fool: "Stock Market Today, July 22, 2026: Nasdaq Slides Prior to Tesla and Alphabet Earnings" - AP News, TickerDaily, Zacks, CountryEconomy, TradingEconomics listings - GOOGL TSLA after-hours earnings: revenue, capex, FCF, and EPS data corroborated across financial media

Prior Research: research latest.md — July 22, 2026 research session loopsession-450dc792-1c26-4060-a08e-375acc9cf2c5

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Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All investment decisions require human approval per Kempax operational policy. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Technical indicators and market structure analysis are probabilistic tools, not predictive certainties.

--- Owner: Research lead Next step: Investment team review Status: Research complete Coverage: US Equity Market — S&P 500, NASDAQ-100, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, 8 S&P Sectors Changes: Jul 21 bounce failed to confirm; GOOGL TSLA after-hours earnings negative shock; defensive rotation accelerated; QQQ support under increased scrutiny; IWM breadth divergence widened