Public Kempax report

Daily After Market report · 2026-07-24

Kempax Research

Loop report · 2026-07-24

Daily After-Market Report — US Equities Friday, July 24, 2026 Week 30 Close

Published: 2026-07-25T01:25 UTC Saturday — weekend edition covering Friday close Session: Generate daily after-market report loopsession-0f901a1d-180e-49c6-8453-fb09c1c9955f Run: looprun-3e0b86ea-b4aa-49c5-8698-c9c3c5af6c6e Prepared by: Stock Researcher aiagent-34cc467f-e751-49d7-8fb1-4bf00217018e Status: Research complete — pending human analyst review Owner: Research lead upon assignment Coverage focus: Broad US equity market — indices, sectors, technicals, macro, forward catalysts

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1. Market at a Glance

US equities closed out a volatile week on a mixed note Friday, with the S&P 500 eking out a marginal +0.10% gain $SPY $738.93 while the NASDAQ-100 extended its losing streak to three consecutive sessions $QQQ $684.23, −1.12% . The Dow Jones Industrial Average led the session with a +0.48% bounce $DIA $518.76 , suggesting rotation into blue-chip value names rather than a broad recovery. The week's damage was concentrated in Thursday's −1.21% S&P 500 rout — the worst single-session decline in a month — driven by Tesla's post-earnings collapse −14.5% , Alphabet's capex-fueled selloff −7.1% , and Brent crude's surge above $100 bbl for the first time since May. The Magnificent Seven shed approximately $797 billion in market value on Thursday alone. The VIX retreated to 18.58 on Friday from Thursday's 18.70 spike but remains above all near-term moving averages, signaling that the volatility expansion regime is intact heading into FOMC week.

Weekly summary: SPY −0.59%, QQQ −1.60%, DIA −0.39%, IWM −0.98%. The tech-growth complex led losses while energy and defensive sectors provided relative shelter. The overarching narrative is a rotation from overextended growth tech into value, cyclicals, and energy — not a wholesale liquidation.

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2. Index Performance

Index ETF Jul 24 Close Daily Δ Weekly Δ 3-Month Δ YTD Δ RSI 14 Trend Key Support Key Resistance ------- ----- ------------- --------- ---------- ----------- -------- --------- ------- ------------- ---------------- S&P 500 $SPY 738.93 +0.10% −0.59% +3.50% +16.07% 39.09 Neutral 739.89 731.68 753.27 755.58 Dow Jones $DIA 518.76 +0.48% −0.39% +5.39% +15.24% 32.54 Neutral 515.14 505.82 526.63 532.54 NASDAQ-100 $QQQ 684.23 −1.12% −1.60% +3.07% +22.44% 33.06 Bearish 686.76 670 698.90 724.90 Russell 2000 $IWM 291.17 −0.31% −0.98% +5.25% +30.63% 36.34 Neutral 291.01 287.60 297.67 302.72

\ Estimated level; not confirmed by market structure tool. YTD returns are at the underlying index level. ETF prices are the primary data source from Tradier.

Index Performance Chart — $SPY June 1 – July 24, 2026

SPY structure note: Price closed at 738.93, fractionally below the high-strength support at 739.89 breached July 23 . The session high of 743.72 tested resistance but was rejected. The coiling pattern between the 716.58 swing low and 755.58 swing high 5.28% range resolved to the downside on July 23. Price is now below SMA10 746.47 , SMA20 746.15 , and SMA50 745.03 — a bearish alignment. The Friday bounce was weak and on declining volume 44.8M vs. 55.4M Thursday .

Index Performance Chart — $QQQ June 1 – July 24, 2026

QQQ structure note: QQQ is the weakest major index. It closed at 684.23, undercutting the critical 686.76 base-floor support intraday low 682.48 before paring losses into the close. This is the first close below the base floor — a technically significant breakdown. The lower-high sequence since June 3 748.65 → 737.62 → 726.39 → 724.36 and expanding MACD histogram confirm accelerating downside momentum. The next support zone is approximately 670. Volume was elevated at 42.9M shares vs. 38.0M 20-day average , indicating continued distribution.

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3. Sector Rotation

Rank Sector ETF Jul 24 Close 1-Month Δ% RSI 14 Trend Signal ------ -------- ----- ------------- ----------- --------- ------- -------- 1 Energy $XLE 59.62 +11.29% 85.00 ⚠️ Strong ↑ Overbought — mean-reversion risk elevated 2 Healthcare $XLV 162.57 +6.01% 44.64 Strong ↑ Defensive bid; 5 of last 7 days up 3 Financials $XLF 56.31 +4.82% 52.32 Strong ↑ 5 consecutive up days Jul 20–24 4 Real Estate $XLRE 45.95 +3.24% 53.38 Positive Rate-sensitive; modest bid 5 Utilities $XLU 46.29 +1.65% 54.68 Positive Classic defensive rotation beneficiary 6 Industrials $XLI 182.66 +1.36% 43.94 Positive Outperformed on Thursday's rout 7 Materials $XLB 51.26 +0.20% 34.81 Flat Near oversold; no catalyst 8 Comm. Services $XLC 106.30 −0.23% 36.46 Flat Alphabet Tesla weight drag 9 Consumer Staples $XLP 84.13 −0.37% 42.26 Flat Failed to attract defensive flows 10 Technology $XLK 175.88 −3.92% 47.06 Weak ↓ Breakdown from Jul 10 high of 186.23 11 Consumer Disc. $XLY 109.41 −4.92% 26.00 🔴 Weak ↓ Oversold; +47% volume on recent selloff

Rotation Heatmap — 1-Month Sector Performance

Energy          ████████████████████████████████ +11.29%
Healthcare      ██████████████████ +6.01%
Financials      ██████████████ +4.82%
Real Estate     █████████ +3.24%
Utilities       █████ +1.65%
Industrials     ████ +1.36%
Materials       █ +0.20%
Comm. Services  █ -0.23%
Consumer Staples█ -0.37%
Technology      ███████████ -3.92%
Consumer Disc.  ██████████████ -4.92%

Rotation thesis confirmed: Capital continues to rotate out of growth tech and consumer discretionary into energy, healthcare, and financials. This is a "risk-off within equities" pattern — not a broad liquidation, but a decisive sector rotation. Energy's +11.29% 1-month return is the dominant story, fueled by crude oil's 38% monthly surge. The key concern: XLE RSI at 85.00 is at a historically extreme overbought reading, suggesting mean-reversion risk in the near term. XLY's RSI at 26.00 is deeply oversold but oversold conditions can persist in downtrends.

Daily context July 24 : The Friday session saw continued pressure on tech QQQ −1.12% while the Dow +0.48% led. This is consistent with the rotation — selling concentrated in growth momentum names, buyers stepping into value cyclical at discounted levels.

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4. Notable Movers

Week's Top Catalysts

Ticker Event Impact Detail -------- ------- -------- -------- TSLA Q2 Earnings Miss −14.5% Q2 EPS $0.55 miss vs. consensus; 480K deliveries; inventory drawdown 28K units; worst single-day drop since March 2025 GOOGL Q2 Earnings + Capex −7.1% Revenue $119.8B; raised 2026 capex guidance to up to $205B spooking investors; DOJ antitrust remedy overhang INTC Q3 Guidance +4% Q3 revenue guidance $15.8–$16.8B well above $15.1B consensus ; rare tech bright spot Mag 7 Aggregate −$797B Combined market-cap loss in Thursday's session alone; largest single-day Mag 7 wipeout in 2026 XOM Energy Rally + Beneficiary of crude oil surge; reports Aug 7 NVDA AI Capex Debate − Selling pressure as market questions AI ROI; reports Aug 26 STMicro Semi Warning −17.7% European semiconductor warning; read-across to global chip sector

Energy Sector — Standout Strength - WTI Crude at $92 bbl +38% for July alone - Brent Crude above $100 bbl — first time since May; Red Sea Strait of Hormuz tanker strikes adding supply-risk premium - $XLE +11.29% 1-month; best-performing sector by a wide margin - OVX oil volatility at 69 — elevated, reflecting geopolitical supply risk

Tech Complex — Broad Weakness - $QQQ closed below 686.76 base-floor support — technically significant bearish breakdown - Semiconductors: Samsung −7%+ , SK Hynix −7%+ , STMicro −17.7% - AI capex narrative under scrutiny after Alphabet's spending guidance - MSFT earnings Jul 29 — next major tech test

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5. Technical Dashboard

Moving Average Crosses & Alignment

Symbol SMA10 SMA20 SMA50 Price vs All MAs MA Alignment Signal -------- ------- ------- ------- ----------------- -------------- -------- $SPY 746.47 746.15 745.03 Below all three SMA10 < SMA20 < SMA50 forming Bearish cascade developing $QQQ 703.70 711.71 718.29 Below all three SMA10 < SMA20 < SMA50 confirmed Bearish cascade — most bearish $DIA 521.65 523.00 514.53 Below SMA10 20, above SMA50 SMA10 < SMA20 but SMA50 still rising Mixed — SMA50 is the line in the sand $IWM 293.93 295.86 291.18 Below SMA10 20, marginal above SMA50 SMA10 < SMA20, SMA50 flat Precarious — only $0.01 above SMA50

Key signal changes this week: - SPY SMA50 breach: SPY closed below SMA50 745.03 on July 23 for the first time since April. Friday's close at 738.93 confirmed the breakdown. This is a regime-level change for trend-following models. - QQQ base-floor breakdown: QQQ closed at 684.23, below the 686.76 base-floor support. Confirmed breakdown — next support zone 670. - DIA SMA50 hold: DIA remains the only major index above its SMA50 514.53 , with Friday's bounce to 518.76 +0.48% reinforcing this relative strength.

RSI Extremes

Symbol RSI 14 Zone Signal -------- --------- ------ -------- $XLE 85.00 Overbought Historically extreme; mean reversion risk elevated $XLY 26.00 Oversold Deeply oversold; bounce possible but trend is bearish $DIA 32.54 Near oversold Approaching oversold; Dow may find a floor first $QQQ 33.06 Near oversold Declining; room to fall further before extreme $SPY 39.09 Weak In no-man's land — weak but not oversold

MACD Signals

Symbol MACD Line Signal Line Histogram Direction Signal -------- ----------- ------------- ----------- ----------- -------- $SPY +0.29 — Flattening Narrowing Bullish momentum exhausted $QQQ −6.05 — −2.66 Expanding Bearish — accelerating downside $DIA +1.32 — −1.54 Narrowing Positive but declining $IWM +0.25 — −0.85 Narrowing Likely to cross below zero next 1–2 sessions

Volume Spikes

Symbol Jul 24 Vol 20d Avg Vol Ratio Signal -------- ----------- ------------- ------- -------- $SPY 44,781,984 48,016,602 0.93× Normal — Friday session, below average $QQQ 42,876,659 37,971,570 1.13× Elevated — distribution on down day $DIA 3,328,437 3,593,285 0.93× Normal $IWM 19,771,042 21,861,373 0.90× Normal

Volume note: Thursday's selloff on elevated SPY volume 55.4M, 1.15× average was followed by a lower-volume Friday bounce — the classic "dead cat" pattern. QQQ's continued elevated volume on the decline confirms sustained distribution pressure in tech.

Active Scanner Triggers

Trigger Status Detail --------- -------- -------- Volatility Compression RESOLVED ↓ SPY's 5.28% range resolved to the downside Jul 23. Measured move target 716–720. Relative Strength New High ACTIVE XLE, XLF, XLV making new RS highs vs. SPY SPY Support Break CONFIRMED 739.89 breached Jul 23; not reclaimed Jul 24 close 738.93 QQQ Base-Floor Breakdown NEW 686.76 broken Jul 24; close 684.23 — technically significant DIA Support Break ACTIVE 517.16 breached Jul 23; Friday bounce to 518.76 may reclaim

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6. Macro Check

Volatility VIX

Metric Value Assessment -------- ------- ------------ VIX Close 18.58 Retreated from Thursday's 18.70 spike VIX SMA10 17.09 VIX above +8.7% — elevated VIX SMA20 16.97 VIX above +9.5% — elevated VIX Week Range 16.64 – 20.31 Wide; Thursday spike to 20.31 intraday VIX RSI 14 58 Neutral-rising

VIX assessment: The Friday retreat to 18.58 from 18.70 suggests the panic bid faded, but VIX remains above all near-term moving averages. The Thursday intraday high of 20.31 briefly breached the 20 "fear threshold" before pulling back. The key question heading into FOMC week is whether VIX will compress back toward 16–17 suggesting the spike was a one-session event or sustain above 18 confirming a higher-volatility regime . Overnight weekend VIX futures will be informative.

Fixed Income

Instrument Yield Rate Trend Signal ------------ ----------- ------- -------- Fed Funds Rate 3.50%–3.75% — FOMC decision Jul 29 2-Year Treasury 4.36% Rising Fresh 2026 highs 10-Year Treasury 4.70% Rising Testing critical 4.5–4.7% zone; equity valuation pressure 30-Year Treasury 5.17% Rising Above 5% — long-duration pressure UK 10-Year Gilt 5.10% Rising Global yield surge; synchronized tightening Australia 10-Year 5.08% Rising Same theme

Yield assessment: The 10-year Treasury yield rising toward 4.70% is a key macro headwind for equities, particularly growth tech names with high duration. The synchronized rise in global sovereign yields US, UK, Australia all above 5% on the long end suggests a structural re-pricing of term premium, not a US-specific event. The FOMC's July 29 decision will be pivotal — the Warsh Fed's data-dependent approach means the 4.2% CPI YoY print keeps a hawkish bias alive, even as equity markets wobble.

Commodities

Commodity Price Period Change Signal ----------- ------- --------------- -------- WTI Crude Oil $92 bbl +38% July Supply disruption premium; Strait of Hormuz risk Brent Crude $100.69 bbl + 7% Thursday First time above $100 since May Gold $4,030 oz − 2% weekly Sliding; broke $4,000 in late June Silver — −3%+ weekly Underperforming gold Copper $6.32 lb — Modestly lower; China demand concerns

Commodity assessment: Crude oil is the dominant macro story. Brent's breach above $100 bbl introduces demand-destruction risk for the consumer and margin compression for transportation industrial sectors. The 38% monthly surge in WTI is historically extreme and, combined with XLE's RSI at 85, suggests the energy trade is crowded and vulnerable to a reversal if supply fears abate. Gold's continued slide despite elevated uncertainty is a negative divergence — the market is not buying traditional safe havens, preferring to rotate within equities rather than exit to gold.

Currencies

Pair Rate Change Signal ------ ------ -------- -------- EUR USD 1.1382 −0.1% daily Range-bound near 1.14 USD JPY 163.80 — Multi-decade yen lows; intervention risk building GBP USD 1.3315 −0.45% daily Down 1% for the week USD CNH 6.778 — Yuan stable

Key Macro Calendar

Date Event Importance ------ ------- ------------ Jul 24 Fri Section 122 blanket tariff expiry HIGH — binary outcome; legal pathway TBD Jul 28–29 FOMC Meeting + Press Conference CRITICAL — rate decision + forward guidance Jul 29 Microsoft MSFT Q2 Earnings HIGH — next Mag 7 test after TSLA GOOGL Jul 30 Q2 Advance GDP + June PCE CRITICAL — "double data day"; growth + inflation Aug 7 ExxonMobil XOM Q2 Earnings MEDIUM — energy sector bellwether Aug 26 Nvidia NVDA Q2 Earnings HIGH — AI trade validation

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7. Forward Indicators — What to Watch Next Session Monday, July 27

Critical Levels

Index Bullish Trigger Bearish Trigger Pivot ------- ---------------- ----------------- ------- $SPY Reclaim and close above 740 → target 753 Break below 735 → target 731–716 738–740 zone $QQQ Reclaim 686.76 → relief rally to 698 Hold below 686.76 → measured move to 670 686.76 base floor $DIA Hold above SMA50 514.53 → blue-chip leadership Break below 515 → target 505 515–518 zone $IWM Hold above SMA50 291.01 → small-cap support Break below 291 → target 287.60 291

Scenario Framework for FOMC Week

Bull case 30% probability : - SPY reclaims 740 and closes above SMA50; QQQ rebounds from oversold RSI 33 ; VIX compresses back below 17. Catalyst: benign tariff resolution, dovish FOMC leak, or strong MSFT earnings guidance.

Base case 45% probability : - SPY consolidates in 731–740 range into FOMC. Tech continues to underperform. Rotation into energy healthcare financials persists. VIX holds 17–19. Market waits for FOMC + GDP PCE clarity before committing direction.

Bear case 25% probability : - QQQ breakdown below 686.76 accelerates, dragging SPY below 735. VIX breaks above 20. Catalyst: tariff escalation, hawkish FOMC surprise, crude oil spike above $105, or MSFT earnings miss following TSLA GOOGL pattern.

Key Questions for Monday

Did the Section 122 tariff expire, get extended, or get replaced? The Friday deadline may produce weekend news — this is the most immediate binary risk.
Does SPY reclaim 739.89 support or confirm the breakdown? Two consecutive closes below this level would be technically significant.
Can QQQ hold above the 682.48 intraday low, or does the base-floor breakdown attract momentum sellers? The 686.76 level is now resistance, not support.
Does the rotation into Dow Value names continue, or was Friday's DIA bounce just a dead-cat bounce within a broader decline? The DIA vs. QQQ divergence is the key intermarket signal.
Will pre-FOMC positioning drive a relief rally or a further derisking? The July 28–29 meeting is the most anticipated FOMC event since the Warsh Fed removed forward guidance.

Earnings to Watch

Date Company Consensus Est. Key Watch Item ------ --------- --------------- ---------------- Jul 29 Microsoft MSFT Revenue $86.7–87.8B Azure growth; AI capex commentary; FTC scrutiny Jul 29 NextEra Energy NEE — Clean energy demand; utility sector read Aug 7 ExxonMobil XOM — Energy sector validation; buyback capex plans Aug 26 Nvidia NVDA Revenue $91B guide Blackwell Vera Rubin supply; gross margin 74.9% ref

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8. Summary & Investment Implications

The US equity market enters the weekend — and the most consequential week of July — in a cautious-to-defensive posture . The evidence:

Factor Signal Weight -------- -------- -------- SPY below SMA50 first time since April Bearish High QQQ base-floor breakdown 686.76 Bearish High Sector rotation: Energy Healthcare Financials leading, Tech Consumer Discretionary lagging Defensive High VIX above all near-term MAs but below 20 Caution Medium 10Y yield at 4.70% — fresh 2026 highs Bearish for growth Medium Brent crude above $100 bbl — demand destruction risk Bearish for consumer Medium DIA holding above SMA50 Constructive Medium FOMC + GDP PCE next week — event risk Neutral → Binary High XLE RSI at 85 overbought , XLY RSI at 26 oversold Mean-reversion setups Low-Medium

Bottom line: The market is in a rotational correction, not a bear market. The Dow's SMA50 hold and the defensive sector bid suggest the selling is discriminating rather than indiscriminate. However, the combination of SPY's SMA50 breach, QQQ's base-floor breakdown, rising yields, and the upcoming FOMC GDP PCE gauntlet creates a high-risk environment where the probability of a 5%+ index move in either direction over the next two weeks is elevated.

Recommended posture: Underweight Technology and Consumer Discretionary; overweight Energy with tight stops given RSI 85 , Healthcare, and Financials. Hold elevated cash for FOMC-week opportunity. The volatility compression resolution to the downside measured move target 716–720 on SPY should be respected until either the 740 level is reclaimed or the 731–716 support zone is tested.

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Sources & Data Provenance

Source Data Provided Freshness -------- -------------- ----------- Tradier API via Kempax SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM OHLCV daily bars through Jul 24 close Jul 24 EOD Tradier API via Kempax VIX daily bars Jul 20–24 Jul 24 EOD Kempax compute technical indicators SMA10 20 50, RSI14, MACD, ATR for SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM Jul 23–24 Kempax analyze market structure Support resistance, swing points, gaps, ranges for SPY, QQQ, DIA Jul 23 Kempax render quote chart SPY and QQQ daily charts with MA overlays Jun 1 – Jul 24 Jul 24 EOD Kempax search web CloakBrowser Market news, macro data, crude oil, yields, notable movers Jul 24 Saxo Group Index closes, crude oil prices $100.69 Brent , Treasury yields 10Y 4.70% , commodity prices, currency rates, Mag 7 wipeout Jul 24 CNBC WSJ Tesla, Alphabet earnings impact; Section 122 tariff context Jul 22–24 Go Markets Fed policy framework, economic calendar, earnings previews Jul 2026 Trading Economics Index levels, VIX, crude oil, EUR USD Jul 24

Data Limitations

Sector ETF daily closes for July 24 are sourced from the prior research session Jul 23 close data . Intraday Friday sector flow is inferred from index-level signals Dow +0.48%, NASDAQ −1.12% rather than direct sector ETF measurements.
SMA200 values are not available from the current Kempax tool set requires 200 candles; tool returns up to 100 data points .
NYSE Advance Decline numbers are not retrievable through current Kempax tools. Breadth analysis is inferred from sector and index-level data.
Exact Treasury yield closes for July 24 are from market commentary Saxo Group , not a direct data terminal feed. Values should be verified against primary sources.
Commodity prices gold, silver, copper are from market commentary and should be verified against exchange data.

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