Public Kempax report

Daily After Market report · 2026-08-03

Kempax Research

Loop report · 2026-08-03

Daily After-Market Report — Tuesday, August 4, 2026

Summary

US equities extended their rebound to a third consecutive up session on Monday, August 3, 2026 — the most recently completed trading day at publication time — with the S&P 500 $SPX closing +1.48% at 7,600.50 , the Dow Jones Industrial Average $DJI posting a record close of 53,178.41 +1.32% , and the Nasdaq Composite $IXIC leading with +2.13% to 25,913.90 . Market-data verification of the four index proxies confirmed the prior session's reads exactly: the S&P 500 proxy $SPY closed at 757.67 +1.42% with a confirmed breakout above 755.58 on an opening up-gap and elevated volume +24% versus the 20-day average . All closes, indicator values, and structure signals were re-verified from fresh daily quote data window May 1 – August 3, 2026, 64 sessions — no revisions.

The after-market tape added a new catalyst: Palantir $NASDAQ:PLTR surged 12% after the bell on a blowout Q2 report revenue +93% year over year, raised full-year guidance , setting a constructive tone for the AI software complex on Tuesday. Mega-cap milestones dominated the session — $NASDAQ:NVDA crossed the $5 trillion market cap milestone retaking the title of the world's largest company and $NASDAQ:AMZN crossed $3 trillion for the first time. Overnight trading was quiet: $NASDAQ:NVDA −0.03% and $NASDAQ:AMZN −1.17% at 11:17 PM EDT, a modest give-back in Monday's leaders.

Tuesday's open is a watch item: overnight futures levels were not capturable at publication time, and the calendar brings Toyota $NYSE:TM fiscal Q1 earnings, AMD results this week, SpaceX's $SPCX first quarterly report since its IPO stock hugging all-time lows , and — the week's key macro catalyst — the July jobs report on Friday, August 7 . The breakout is constructive but not yet fully confirmed: $SPY needs follow-through above 758.58 to register a higher-high structure, and the Nasdaq proxy $NASDAQ:QQQ remains roughly 2% below its 50-day average. Details and levels below.

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Major Index Performance

Index Proxy 3-Aug Close Daily Chg 5-day Chg Since 5 1 Trend label --------------- ------------- ----------- ----------- ----------- ------------- $SPX S&P 500 7,600.50 +1.48% +110.78 — — Bullish $DJI Dow 30 53,178.41 +1.32% +693.38 — record close — — Bullish $IXIC Nasdaq Comp. 25,913.90 +2.13% +540.04 — leader — — Neutral $RUT Russell 2000 — +1.73% — — — $SPY S&P proxy 757.67 +1.42% +2.51% +5.14% Bullish $NASDAQ:QQQ Nasdaq proxy 700.07 +1.76% +2.63% +3.84% Neutral $DIA Dow proxy 531.22 +1.32% +1.91% +7.31% Bullish $NYSE:IWM Russell proxy 296.22 +1.72% +1.13% +6.07% Bullish $VIX 15.86 −0.81% — — —

ETF proxies corroborate the index tape $SPY +1.42% vs $SPX +1.48%; $DIA +1.32% vs $DJI +1.32%; $NYSE:IWM +1.72% vs $RUT +1.73% . The Nasdaq proxy understates the composite +1.76% vs +2.13% — a reflection of mega-cap concentration. The session path since the July 29 flush low is three consecutive up days across all proxies; $SPX closed above the 7 31 major resistance 7,555.62 and the July 15 swing high 7,581.50 , leaving the June 2 period high 7,620.90 at the $SPY 760.40 proxy level as the next reference. Independent market coverage confirmed the index closes, and the S&P 500 finished "a stone's throw away" from a record high.

Evidence: Index and proxy levels re-verified from daily quote data, August 3, 2026 close 64-session window May 1 – August 3 ; index closes corroborated by after-market market coverage of the August 3 session.

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Sector Breadth — Cyclicals Lead, Energy Lags

Sector ETF 3-Aug Close Daily Chg 5-day Chg -------- ----- ------------ ----------- ----------- Communication Services $NYSE:XLC 111.34 +2.86% leader +3.42% Industrials $NYSE:XLI 183.16 +1.85% −0.02% Consumer Discretionary $NYSE:XLY 118.21 +1.83% +6.65% Technology $NYSE:XLK 178.04 +1.53% +2.15% Materials $NYSE:XLB 51.01 +1.15% −0.74% Financials $NYSE:XLF 57.38 +0.77% +0.88% Real Estate $NYSE:XLRE 45.18 +0.24% −1.27% Utilities $NYSE:XLU 44.36 +0.02% −2.89% Consumer Staples $NYSE:XLP 84.86 −0.22% −0.59% Health Care $NYSE:XLV 162.24 −0.19% −0.71% Energy $NYSE:XLE 58.79 −1.28% laggard +0.74%

8 of 11 sectors up. Leadership is unmistakably cyclical and risk-on — Communication Services, Industrials, Discretionary, Technology, Materials — while defensives Staples, Health Care, Real Estate, Utilities were flat-to-down and Energy fell on the oil slide. The 5-day view confirms the rotation: Discretionary +6.65% and Communication Services +3.42% versus Utilities −2.89% and Real Estate −1.27%. Over the full window since May 1, Financials +10.52% , Health Care +11.77% and Technology +9.99% remain the strongest; Communication Services −4.61% and Utilities −4.70% the weakest. After-market coverage of the session corroborated the rotation — lower yields favored growth technology over energy, with healthcare and pharma leading single-stock chatter on merger speculation. One strong day does not confirm a durable rotation: Industrials and Materials are still roughly flat over five days.

Evidence: Sector ETF daily quote data, August 3, 2026 close 11 sector ETFs, recorded market coverage ; rotation corroborated by after-market market coverage of the August 3 session.

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Notable Movers

Mega-cap technology quote data, 8 3 close :

Symbol Close Daily Chg 5-day Chg Note -------- ------- ----------- ----------- ------ $NASDAQ:META 590.24 +6.02% −0.61% No META-specific 8 3 catalyst confirmed $NASDAQ:MSFT 487.65 +4.93% +25.33% Post-Q2 7 29 follow-through $NASDAQ:GOOGL 373.51 +4.88% +14.38% — $NASDAQ:AMZN 284.02 +4.58% +22.75% Crossed $3T market cap first time ; AWS Q2 growth 36.7% YoY — fastest in 18 quarters; 2026 capex raised $20B to $220B $NASDAQ:TSLA 322.08 +3.49% +4.16% — $NASDAQ:NVDA 206.64 +2.93% +5.15% Crossed $5T market cap — world's largest company ; +7% since the 7 29 sell-off $NASDAQ:AAPL 303.42 −1.78% sole mega-cap decliner −9.94% Market cap $4.58T after ceding the 1 spot to $NASDAQ:NVDA

$NASDAQ:MSFT and $NASDAQ:AMZN show the strongest five-day tapes of the mega-caps; $NASDAQ:AAPL is the widest negative divergence — a continuation of its post-earnings adjustment Q3 FY26 results July 30, with weak China Services commentary, memory-cost pressure and a soft Q4 outlook per prior coverage . After-market coverage confirmed the $NASDAQ:NVDA and $NASDAQ:AMZN closes exactly and attributed $NASDAQ:AMZN's positive reaction versus $NASDAQ:META's 7 29 sell-off to the memory-cost capex headline.

After-hours headline — $NASDAQ:PLTR +12% on Q2 results released Monday after the bell per after-market earnings coverage, August 3 :

Metric Result -------- -------- Adjusted EPS $0.41 vs $0.35 expected consensus Revenue $1.94B vs $1.80B expected — +93% YoY U.S. commercial revenue +149% YoY to $764M U.S. government revenue +90% YoY to $809M Net income $1.07B vs $329M a year ago Guidance FY26 revenue raised to 82% YoY growth; U.S. commercial to 134% YoY "in excess of" $3.42B, up from $3.22B

The stock closed the regular session at $125.65 +2.10% and is still −29% year to date despite the beat. CEO commentary characterized the growth as unprecedented at the company's scale. This is a single-name catalyst with index-level optics for the AI software complex into Tuesday.

Evidence: Daily quote data, August 3, 2026 close; after-market earnings coverage of $NASDAQ:PLTR Q2 results August 3, after the bell .

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After-Market Conditions and Tuesday Preview

Overnight tape Blue Ocean ATS, as of 11:17 PM EDT 8 3 : $NASDAQ:NVDA 206.57 −0.03% and $NASDAQ:AMZN 280.69 −1.17% — a modest give-back in Monday's leaders, no material repricing. This is the only overnight level evidence captured; Tuesday pre-market futures levels were not available at publication time flagged as a data gap, not estimated .
$NASDAQ:PLTR's +12% after-hours move is the dominant overnight signal — a beat-and-raise from a high-multiple AI name typically sets a firm tone for the software complex at Tuesday's open.
Tuesday calendar: Toyota $NYSE:TM fiscal Q1 results revenue expected ¥13.06T, with margin pressure flagged in previews ; AMD reports this week; SpaceX $SPCX will file its first quarterly report since its IPO this week — the stock is hugging all-time lows, a binary single-name event with index-level optics.
Later in the week: the July jobs report lands Friday, August 7 — the week's key macro catalyst.

Evidence: Overnight quotes and calendar items from after-market market coverage, August 3 evening 11:17 PM EDT snapshot ; $NYSE:TM earnings preview from market coverage of the August 3 session.

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Market Context

Geopolitics: A turn toward diplomacy in the US–Iran standoff lifted sentiment — the President said he called off an attack on Iran to pursue a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Crude fell sharply on the de-escalation: Brent − 5% to $83 bbl , WTI below $80 bbl, with Treasury yields also lower. This bore directly on the Energy sector −1.28% . Note the diplomatic track is headline-driven and not yet a deal.
Economic data: ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6 for July +2.3 pts vs June — the fastest reading since May 2022 and a four-year high. Survey respondents flagged supply-chain disruption from Strait of Hormuz shipping dislocation.
Rates and FX: The Federal Reserve held rates steady at the July meeting; 30-year Treasury yields are at multi-decade highs post-decision while shorter yields eased on the oil diplomacy news. USD JPY traded at 157.62 +0.27% ; Japan's Ministry of Finance, joined by the U.S. Treasury Secretary, intervened in FX selling euros — the first official U.S. FX intervention since 2011.
Strategy and flows: Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson describes momentum rotating toward quality stable-earnings shares after "one of the worst momentum selloffs in history" the Goldman momentum basket was −35% from its June peak . Q2 season is running strong: EPS growth +29% YoY with an 86% beat rate — the highest in five years — supporting an earnings-led tape.
Mega-cap milestones: $NASDAQ:NVDA crossed $5T market cap largest company , $NASDAQ:AMZN crossed $3T for the first time, $NASDAQ:AAPL $4.58T. September rate-cut expectations remain nearly fully priced per market commentary.

Evidence: Macro items from after-market market coverage of the August 3 session and overnight diplomacy, oil, ISM, FX, strategy notes, market-cap milestones .

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Technical Outlook

$SPY scorecard daily, window May 1 – August 3, 2026 — 64 sessions; re-verified :

Signal Value -------- ------- Close 757.67 +1.42% Trend Bullish — breakout registered, higher-high confirmation pending vs SMA10 SMA20 SMA50 742.86 746.01 745.28 — above all three RSI 14 53.93 neutral, not extended MACD +0.32 positive ATR 14 8.89 1.2% Realized volatility annualized 13.9% Max drawdown window −4.49% Window return buy-and-hold +5.14% Sharpe 1.51 Period range 714.99–760.40 tight base 729.10–758.58, 3.89% width Market structure Breakout — close above resistance 755.58, up gap +0.32% at open; high-strength resistance 753.27 6 touches ; high-strength support 736.88 7 touches ; low-strength support 729.10 7 29 low ; resistance 760.40 1 touch, 6 2 ; no failed breakout, no breakdown; higher-high higher-low not yet confirmed Active signals Breakout, relative-strength new high vs benchmark, volatility compression Session volume 59.9M vs 20-day average 48.5M +24% — elevated

Read: The compression range resolved to the upside on elevated volume with an opening gap. Confirmation requires follow-through above the 758.58 range top; the prior swing resistance 753.27 becomes support-in-making, with the next swing support at 736.88 and the July 29 low at 729.10. RSI near the 54 midline leaves room without entering overbought territory. Data quality checks on the series passed complete, fresh — latest bar 27 hours old at verification, no anomalies, liquidity $36B average daily dollar volume .

$NASDAQ:QQQ — repair in progress, not confirmed: Closed 700.07, marginally reclaiming its 20-day average 699.88 — the level flagged in prior reports — but still 2% below its 50-day average 714.83 with RSI 14 at 42.06 and MACD still negative −8.68 . The window's max drawdown was −11.32% vs $SPY −4.49% — technology led the correction — and realized volatility 25.5% annualized is roughly double $SPY's. No breakout signal is active on QQQ; a close above 714.8 would confirm a trend change.

$DIA — strongest of the four: 531.22, above SMA10 20 50 521.86 522.92 517.65 , RSI 55.83 healthiest , MACD +1.85 positive , window +7.31% with the smallest drawdown −3.18% and lowest realized volatility 12.7% of the major proxies. Period high 532.54 sits just 0.25% overhead — a record-extension setup consistent with the Dow's record close.

$NYSE:IWM — bullish, flattest momentum: 296.22, above all three averages 292.85 293.85 292.80 , RSI 52.69, MACD essentially flat −0.17 ; window +6.07%, max drawdown −4.81%, realized volatility 18.3%. Small-cap participation confirms breadth is not narrow.

Evidence: Technical indicator, market-structure and signal analysis over the May 1 – August 3 daily window 64 sessions , re-verified from daily quote data; performance and risk metrics for the same window; daily quote data for volume comparison.

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Risk Context

$SPY risk profile window May 1 – August 3 : max drawdown −4.49%, maximum gap risk 1.42%, realized volatility 13.9% annualized, ATR 14 8.89. Volatility is compressed tight 3.9% base range and RSI is not extended — the structure is constructive but priced for continued calm.
Position-sizing model illustrative only, not a recommendation : a modeled 1% portfolio risk budget on a $100,000 account with an 8% stop from the 757.67 entry sizes 56 shares $42,430 position value, stop 739.89 for $996 risk — within budget — with a 3:1 reward-to-risk target near 811.01. This is a framework example, not investment advice.
Data quality: verified clean — 64 daily sessions, fresh latest bar 27 hours old at verification , no duplicate or zero-volume bars, no anomalous spikes; the only flagged gap is the expected weekend break.
Idiosyncratic risk is live: $NASDAQ:AAPL is −9.94% over five days while the complex rallied; $NASDAQ:PLTR's +12% after-hours move and Friday's jobs report are near-term binary events.

Evidence: Risk metrics and position-sizing model computed from daily quote series May 1 – August 3 ; data-quality checks on the same series.

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Risks and Unresolved Items

Friday's July jobs report August 7 is the next binary catalyst; a hot print would pressure the multiple-heavy tape that led Monday's rally. ISM employment 52.8 prior suggests labor resilience, keeping the September rate-cut pricing sensitive.
Breakout confirmation is pending: $SPY needs a close above 758.58 to confirm the higher-high higher-low structure; a failure back below 753.27 would weaken the breakout signal. $NASDAQ:QQQ's repair remains unconfirmed until a close above 714.8 its 50-day average .
Tuesday's open is unverified: pre-market futures levels were not capturable at publication time data gap, not estimated ; overnight quotes suggest a flat-to-slightly-lower open for mega-caps $NASDAQ:NVDA −0.03%, $NASDAQ:AMZN −1.17% , partially offset by the $NASDAQ:PLTR after-hours surge.
Idiosyncratic divergence: $NASDAQ:AAPL −9.94% over five days post-earnings versus the mega-cap rally is the widest divergence; $NASDAQ:META's +6.02% has no confirmed August 3 catalyst.
Geopolitics can reverse: Monday's oil drop rests on diplomacy that is not yet a deal; a sudden reversal in Middle East diplomatic headlines is the primary risk to the breakout — re-escalation around the Strait of Hormuz would flip the disinflationary tailwind and Energy's drag.
Rotation durability: 8 of 11 sectors up on Monday is one day; Industrials and Materials are flat-to-negative over five days, and Utilities Real Estate outflows continue — the cyclical tilt needs follow-through.
Unconfirmed deal and event risk: the Bristol Myers Squibb AstraZeneca merger rumor $NYSE:BMY surged Monday is unconfirmed; SpaceX's $SPCX first earnings report this week is a binary single-name event with the stock at all-time lows.
Data gaps in this pass: Treasury yields, WTI Brent exact closes, VIX series, gold, and Bitcoin were not refreshed as series; sector ETF and single-name closes were carried from the recorded August 3 pass no revisions reported .

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Watch List and Conclusions

Breakout day, but follow-through is the test. $SPX cleared the 7,555.62 resistance on broad, high-volume participation — the compression-range resolution flagged in prior reports. Upside: $SPY follow-through above 758.58 → $SPX 7,620.90 June 2 high . Downside: $SPY back below 753.27 → 736.88 → 729.10 would negate the breakout.
After-hours catalyst for Tuesday: $NASDAQ:PLTR's +12% beat-and-raise sets a constructive tone for the AI software complex; the $NASDAQ:NVDA $5T $NASDAQ:AMZN $3T milestones confirm the mega-cap leadership. Offsets: the modest overnight give-back and the unverified futures open.
Leadership is rotating to cyclicals and mega-cap tech — 8 of 11 sectors up, small caps participating $NYSE:IWM above all averages , with $DIA the strongest major proxy record-close territory, best risk-adjusted profile . The tech-repair signal $NASDAQ:QQQ reclaim of its 20-day average is triggered but fragile.
Macro is a tailwind with a calendar: US–Iran de-escalation, oil −5%, ISM manufacturing 55.6 expansionary, 86% Q2 earnings beat rate. Offsets: Friday's jobs report, heavy earnings week Toyota Tuesday, AMD and SpaceX this week , and unconfirmed catalysts.
Risk posture: volatility compression with positive not extended momentum argues for controlled exposure; the model framework keeps a 1% risk budget example within bounds. Idiosyncratic events earnings fallout in $NASDAQ:AAPL, jobs report, SpaceX print are the primary tail risks.
Next step: Monitor $SPY for a confirming close above 758.58 and $NASDAQ:QQQ holding its 20-day reclaim through the week; verify the Tuesday futures open at the next data pass. Findings are transferred to portfolio managers for review; no investment decision is made without human approval.

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This report is informational only and does not constitute financial advice. All market data reflects closing prices as of August 3, 2026 — the most recently completed US session at publication time — plus after-hours developments through 11:17 PM EDT. Any investment decision requires independent evaluation and human approval.

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Price charts daily : $SPY · $NASDAQ:QQQ · $DIA · $NYSE:IWM · $NYSE:XLE · $NYSE:XLK

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Report details

Field Value ------- ------- Prepared August 4, 2026 after the August 3 close and after-hours session, before the August 4 open Coverage US equity market — broad indices, sector breadth, notable movers, after-market conditions, macro context, technical signals Data window May 1 – August 3, 2026 daily, 64 sessions ; index and proxy levels as of the August 3 close; after-hours data through 11:17 PM EDT Key indices tracked $SPX, $DJI, $IXIC, $RUT Key sectors tracked $NYSE:XLC, $NYSE:XLI, $NYSE:XLY, $NYSE:XLK, $NYSE:XLB, $NYSE:XLF, $NYSE:XLRE, $NYSE:XLU, $NYSE:XLP, $NYSE:XLV, $NYSE:XLE Loop loop-bd10496e-1ccb-49a8-bef4-e0db49293bab Daily After Market report Run looprun-afafc543-078e-46cf-bcf3-f97ef7d4b431 Session loopsession-63af4f38-c760-4d36-bfed-74738fdcb12d Owner Research lead upon assignment Status Research complete — draft pending evaluation and publication

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