Public Kempax report

Daily After Market report · 2026-08-05

Kempax Research

Loop report · 2026-08-05

Daily After-Market Report — Wednesday, August 5, 2026

Summary

US equities gapped higher Wednesday, August 5, probed fresh intraday highs, and then faded into the close — a failed-breakout day after two consecutive record sessions . The S&P 500 proxy $SPY closed −0.20% at 769.79 , finishing near its session low 3.8% of the day's range after printing an intraday high of 776.85 — a new period high above Tuesday's 773.41 breakout level. The Nasdaq proxy $NASDAQ:QQQ fell −0.90% to 717.30 , closing at its session low after gapping up and tagging 728.54. Only the Dow proxy $DIA held green, +0.44% to 542.81 after touching a new period high of 546.75. Reported coverage of the session framed the same tape — "stocks waver on Wall Street and hover around records" after an early record-high attempt — and the market-data picture is consistent with that framing: indices rose, made new intraday highs, and gave them back.

The pullback was orderly, not distribution : $SPY traded 44.4M shares −11% versus its 20-day average of 49.8M and $NASDAQ:QQQ 32.7M −21% versus 41.6M , well below Tuesday's record-session surge volume. Leadership rotated out of growth : Health Care +1.27% and Materials +1.23% led the tape, while Technology −0.53% , Communication Services −1.04% , and Utilities −1.02% cooled after Tuesday's tech surge and Energy fell −2.07% — the worst sector — as oil eased on renewed hopes for a Strait of Hormuz reopening. Seven of eleven sectors still closed higher, so breadth held.

The trend structure is unchanged in direction, softer in momentum : $SPY and $DIA remain above all rising short- and medium-term moving averages with positive MACD, while $NASDAQ:QQQ is the soft spot — trend label neutral, MACD negative at −3.35, and declining swing highs since June. Both $SPY and $DIA set new period highs intraday before the fade, and both $SPY and $NASDAQ:QQQ triggered failed-breakout signals intraday high above prior resistance, close below it . The macro backdrop is unchanged and headline-driven: Strait of Hormuz diplomacy keeps oil soft — a disinflationary tailwind that is reversible — and Friday's July jobs report August 7 remains the week's most closely watched release . Levels and detail below.

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Major Index Performance

Proxy 5-Aug Close Daily Chg 8 4 → 8 5 Intraday Range Close Position Window 5 1–8 5 Trend Label ------- ------------- ------------------------ ---------------- ---------------- ------------------- ------------- $SPY S&P 500 proxy 769.79 −1.54 −0.20% 776.85 769.51 3.8% of range — near low +6.82% Bullish $NASDAQ:QQQ Nasdaq proxy 717.30 −6.55 −0.90% 728.54 716.92 At session low +6.40% Neutral $DIA Dow proxy 542.81 +2.38 +0.44% 546.75 542.65 Near low, held green +9.65% Bullish

\ New period high for the window May 1 – August 5 : $SPY 776.85 and $DIA 546.75.

Key observations:

Failed-breakout tape, first pullback day. $SPY gapped up +0.59% and $NASDAQ:QQQ +0.33%; both probed above their prior-session highs intraday 776.85 773.41; 728.54 726.39 and then closed below them — $SPY below Tuesday's 771.33 close, $NASDAQ:QQQ at its session low. This is the first down day for the S&P proxy after two up days 8 3 +1.5%, 8 4 +1.8% as reported for those sessions that included record closes.
The fade came on lighter volume: $SPY 44.4M shares versus its 20-day average of 49.8M −11% ; $NASDAQ:QQQ 32.7M versus 41.6M −21% . Relative to Tuesday's surge, $SPY traded at roughly 64% of Tuesday's volume and $NASDAQ:QQQ at about 55% — consistent with profit-taking rather than institutional distribution.
New period highs confirm the uptrend's reach: $SPY's 776.85 and $DIA's 546.75 intraday prints extend the May–August window highs even as the closes gave them back — consistent with the reported "record high attempt" framing of the session.
Data quality clean: the $SPY series was verified fresh latest bar 21 hours old, well inside the freshness threshold , highly liquid $37B average daily dollar volume , with no duplicates or bad spikes; the only gaps are the expected weekend holiday ones. No revision issues.
Index-level note: point-value closes for the headline indices were not available; proxy moves were cross-checked against the reported session framing and no discrepancy appeared.

Evidence: Proxy closes, intraday ranges, gaps, and volume from market-data verification of the August 5 close; failed-breakout and gap signals from structure analysis of the same series; window returns and drawdowns from performance analysis over May 1 – August 5; session framing corroborated by reported market coverage of the August 5 session.

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Sector Breadth — Rotation Out of Growth

Sector ETF 5-Aug Close Daily Chg -------- ----- ------------- ----------- Health Care $NYSE:XLV 164.16 +1.27% leader Materials $NYSE:XLB 52.64 +1.23% Consumer Discretionary $NYSE:XLY 118.64 +0.30% Financials $NYSE:XLF 58.00 +0.21% Real Estate $NYSE:XLRE 45.20 +0.07% Consumer Staples $NYSE:XLP 85.33 −0.05% Industrials $NYSE:XLI 186.35 −0.03% Technology $NYSE:XLK 185.91 −0.53% Utilities $NYSE:XLU 43.66 −1.02% Communication Services $NYSE:XLC 110.87 −1.04% Energy $NYSE:XLE 57.31 −2.07% laggard

7 of 11 sectors up — leadership rotated one day after tech's +4.98% surge. Wednesday's tape flipped the 8 4 script: Health Care and Materials led defensively-oriented strength while Technology, Communication Services, and Utilities gave back ground and Energy was the clear laggard −2.07% as oil eased on Strait of Hormuz reopening hopes. Energy is now the only sector negative over the May–August window −2.62% . Breadth held 7 of 11 up , which argues against labeling this a broad risk-off day — it reads as profit-taking in the winners of Tuesday plus an oil-driven energy drag.

Window context 5 1–8 5 : Technology remains the best period performer +14.85% but the most fragile structurally — trend label neutral, MACD −0.45, a −15.96% max drawdown, and 35.6% annualized realized volatility. Financials +11.71% and Health Care +13.09% show steady bullish momentum with shallow drawdowns −2.08% and −3.77% , and Industrials is +7.74% on a bullish trend label. One session of rotation does not confirm a regime change — the durable question is whether growth leadership resumes or value defensives take the baton into Friday's jobs report.

Evidence: Sector ETF daily quote data, August 5 close 11 sector ETFs ; window trend, drawdown, and volatility context from indicator and performance analysis over the May 1 – August 5 window.

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Technical Outlook

$SPY scorecard daily, window May 1 – August 5, 2026 :

Signal Value -------- ------- Close 769.79 −0.20% — 3.8% of day range near low Intraday high 776.85 — new period high above 8 4 high 773.41 Trend Bullish — above SMA10 20 50 747.4 748.4 746.3; +3% above SMA50 RSI 14 61.6 healthy, not overbought MACD +3.92 positive EMA12 vs EMA26 752.0 748.1 bullish alignment ATR 14 9.66 1.25% Realized volatility annualized 14.1% Max drawdown window −4.49% Window return +6.82% Market structure Failed breakout — high 776.85 above resistance 773.41, close below it; up gap +0.59%; range 729.10–776.85 6.2%, tight Support resistance Strong support 736.88 7 touches and 729.10; resistance 773.41, with strong 753.27 6 touches now below price Active signals Relative-strength new high vs benchmark. No support break, no pullback, no moving-average cross, no volume-spike trigger Session volume 44.4M vs 20-day average 49.8M −11% — lighter

Read: The record-run breakout stalled one session later. $SPY remains in a bullish structure — above all three short medium-term averages with positive MACD and RSI at a healthy 61.6 — but the failed breakout at 773.41 is the fresh near-term negative : an intraday print above the breakout gate followed by a close below it raises the odds of a pullback toward the 753.27 former-resistance shelf, then the strong 736.88 pivot 7 touches , with 729.10 as the low-strength floor. A reclaim of 773.41 resets the breakout; the light-volume character of the fade is the mitigating factor. No other bearish triggers fired.

$NASDAQ:QQQ — the market's soft spot, momentum still deteriorating: Closed 717.30 −0.90% at its session low , back under the 724.90–726.39 ceiling it reclaimed only Tuesday. Trend label neutral, MACD −3.35 negative , EMA12 below EMA26 699.5 < 702.8 , and swing highs have declined since June 748.65 → 745.45 → 744.76 → 726.39 . The close is a slim 0.3% above SMA50 715.0 after Tuesday's reclaim; 26.0% annualized realized volatility and a −11.32% window drawdown keep it structurally the weakest of the three proxies. A sustained close above the 715–726 zone is required to confirm repair; failure opens 698.90 strong support, 4 touches , then 661.14.

$DIA — strongest large-cap profile, extending records: 542.81 +0.44% with a new period high of 546.75 intraday; RSI 63.9 firm , MACD +4.23 positive , above all moving averages 525.9 524.5 519.1 , window return +9.65% with the shallowest drawdown of the three −3.18% and 12.9% realized volatility. The Dow complex is carrying the tape while growth cools.

Evidence: Technical indicator, market-structure, and signal analysis over the May 1 – August 5 daily window; performance and risk metrics for the same window; daily quote data for volume comparison; data-quality checks on the same series.

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Market Structure — Key Levels

Instrument Failed breakout Gap Resistance Support ------------ ----------------- ----- ------------ --------- $SPY Detected high 776.85 773.41; close 769.79 < 773.41 Up +0.59% 773.41 8 4 high ; strong 753.27 6 touches, now below price Strong 736.88 7 touches ; 729.10 1 touch $NASDAQ:QQQ Detected high 728.54 726.39; close 717.30 < 726.39 Up +0.33% 726.39; strong 724.90 4 touches Strong 698.90 4 touches ; 661.14

Playbook for the next sessions: For $SPY, a reclaim of 773.41 resets the breakout; failure risks a retest of the 753.27 shelf, then the high-strength 736.88 pivot. For $NASDAQ:QQQ, the 724.90–726.39 zone is the ceiling and 698.90 the strong floor. Both structures spent the day probing resistance and closing back under it — the tell for Thursday will be whether either reclaims its gate intraday and holds.

Evidence: Market-structure analysis failed breakout, gap, pivot strength and touch counts over the May 1 – August 5 daily window.

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Market Context

Geopolitics — Hormuz oil remains the dominant, reversible driver. Reported market coverage of the August 5 session was anchored by the same themes as Tuesday: "US stock market hits record high amid hopes for Strait of Hormuz reopening" and "oil prices ease … on hopes for Mideast deal as companies report strong profits," with the session's final framing "stocks waver on Wall Street and hover around records as oil prices hold steady." The market data tells the same story in prices — an intraday record attempt that faded and an Energy sector down −2.07% on easing oil. The diplomatic track is still not a deal , and messaging has been conflicting — this is a headline-driven tailwind, not a settled one.
Economic calendar: Friday, August 7 — July jobs report remains the week's most closely watched release and the binary macro event for this tape: the September FOMC meeting is priced around the possibility of a rate hike rather than a cut . Kalshi traders put September-hike odds near 54% immediately after the July 29 hold with CME FedWatch-based readings near 48.8% , down from roughly 82% in late July, and June FOMC minutes signaled no rate cuts until 2027 ; the July 29 hold itself drew three dissents favoring a hike. The August 1–5 oil slide on Strait of Hormuz reopening hopes is the disinflationary force that would push those odds lower still — and a hot jobs print would revive them, which is what makes Friday's release the binary event for this tape.
Earnings season: the 8 5 session came after a two-day earnings-driven run record $CAT quarter, $PLTR blowout, $AMD report on 8 4 ; no new earnings anchors surfaced in the reported session coverage.
Narrative consistency: headline framing and price data agree — indices hovered around records after an early high, oil held steady on diplomacy hopes, and profit-taking trimmed Tuesday's winners. No contradictory signals were reported.

Evidence: Macro items and session framing from reported coverage of the August 5 session Al Jazeera, Local10 AP, Investopedia and of the August 4 sessions WSJ, Guardian ; jobs-report calendar carried forward from August 4 coverage; rate-path pricing from reported July 29–30 market coverage — Kalshi September-hike odds near 54% and CME FedWatch-based readings near 48.8% right after the July 29 hold Reuters, Kalshi news, Gate.com , down from 82% in late July Motley Fool , June FOMC minutes signaling no rate cuts until 2027 Forbes, Reuters , three dissents favoring a hike at the July 29 hold Reuters, WSJ , and the August 1–5 oil slide on Hormuz reopening hopes Local10, WSJ, Al Jazeera, Investopedia .

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Risk Context

$SPY risk profile window May 1 – August 5 : max drawdown −4.49%, maximum gap risk 1.42%, realized volatility 14.1% annualized, ATR 14 9.66. RSI is not extended 61.6 and no event risk was flagged — constructive, though Wednesday's failed breakout is the first crack in the two-day record-run composure.
Position-sizing model illustrative only, not a recommendation : a modeled 1% portfolio risk budget on a $100,000 account with an 8% stop sizes 51 shares $39.3k position value, stop 750.47 −2.5% for $985 risk versus the $1,000 budget, with a 3.0 reward-to-risk target. Framework example only — not investment advice.
Options backdrop open-interest estimate, not observed dealer positioning : for the nearest weekly expirations 8 11–8 13 , the primary, call-side, and put-side gamma walls all sit at the $770 strike — essentially at Wednesday's $SPY close 769.79 — with net gamma +$326M call-side +$816M vs put-side −$490M and gamma coverage of 66%; the net gamma wall sits at 785 +15% and notably heavy put volume was observed at the 760 strike 6,818 contracts . Positive net gamma near price suggests options dealers may damp near-term swings around the 770 level this week. Informational only — not financial advice.

Evidence: Risk metrics and position-sizing model computed from daily quote series May 1 – August 5 ; data-quality checks on the same series; options open-interest estimate from the weekly-expiry snapshot estimate, not observed positioning .

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Risks and Unresolved Items

Strait of Hormuz headlines are binary and reversible primary risk . Wednesday's oil-driven Energy weakness and the market's willingness to fade a record attempt both trace to diplomacy that is not yet a deal. A sudden reversal in Middle East headlines would flip the disinflationary tailwind into a risk-off shock.
Failed breakouts on $SPY 773.41 and $NASDAQ:QQQ 726.39 . Near-term odds of a pullback toward $SPY 753.27 736.88 and $NASDAQ:QQQ 698.90 have increased; Thursday's reclaim test 773.41 726.39 decides whether this is a one-day fade or the start of a deeper digestion.
$NASDAQ:QQQ repair durability. Negative MACD, bearish EMA alignment, declining swing highs, and a close back under the 724.90–726.39 ceiling; needs sustained closes above the 715–726 zone to confirm repair.
Friday's July jobs report August 7 is the week's most closely watched release; a hot print would revive rate-hike bets and pressure the growth-multiple-heavy tape.
Rotation durability. One session of growth→value rotation does not confirm a regime change — Technology is still the best window performer +14.85% but also the most fragile neutral trend, −15.96% drawdown ; watch whether leadership reverts.
Data gaps: detailed single-stock mover information was not available; mover coverage is headline-level only. $VIX, oil, Treasury yields, and gold were not retrieved as price series oil direction is corroborated by reported headlines . Index point-value closes were not available; proxy levels were used and cross-checked instead.

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Watch List and Conclusions

Failed-breakout day after a record run — follow-through is the test. $SPY and $NASDAQ:QQQ both gapped up, made new highs, and closed below their breakout gates on lighter volume. Upside: a Thursday reclaim of 773.41 $SPY and 726.39 $NASDAQ:QQQ resets the breakout. Downside: failure targets the 753.27 → 736.88 support cascade $SPY and 698.90 $NASDAQ:QQQ .
Rotation, not breakdown: 7 of 11 sectors up with Health Care and Materials leading while Energy fell on oil; breadth holding argues this is profit-taking in Tuesday's winners plus an oil drag, not broad distribution — but one day does not confirm a durable rotation.
Trend structure intact, momentum diverging: $SPY and $DIA bullish above rising averages with positive MACD and $DIA printing a new period high intraday ; $NASDAQ:QQQ neutral with negative MACD is the unresolved soft spot.
Risk posture: RSI not extended 61.6 , positive net gamma at the 770 strike may damp near-term swings, and the illustrative sizing framework stays within a 1% risk budget; the primary tail risks are headline-driven — Hormuz diplomacy, Friday's jobs report, and any re-acceleration in rate-hike expectations.
Next step: monitor the reclaim test at 773.41 726.39 Thursday, sector leadership growth vs value , and the July jobs report Friday; findings are transferred to portfolio managers for review — no investment decision is made without human approval.

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This report is informational only and does not constitute financial advice. All market data reflects closing prices as of Wednesday, August 5, 2026 — the most recently completed US session at report time — plus after-market developments through the session's close. Options figures are an open-interest estimate, not observed dealer positioning. Rate-probability figures are third-party market and prediction-market readings as reported by the cited outlets Kalshi, CME FedWatch-based coverage ; the most recent available reading is from after the July 29 FOMC decision, not August 5. Notable single-stock mover details were not available; mover coverage is limited to sector-level evidence. Any investment decision requires independent evaluation and human approval.

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Report details

Field Value ------- ------- Prepared August 5, 2026 after the August 5 close Coverage US equity market — broad indices, sector breadth, technical signals, market structure, macro context, market risk Data window May 1 – August 5, 2026 daily ; proxy levels as of the August 5 close Key proxies tracked $SPY, $NASDAQ:QQQ, $DIA Key sectors tracked $NYSE:XLC, $NYSE:XLI, $NYSE:XLY, $NYSE:XLK, $NYSE:XLB, $NYSE:XLF, $NYSE:XLRE, $NYSE:XLU, $NYSE:XLP, $NYSE:XLV, $NYSE:XLE Revision Corrective revision 1 of 2 — rate-pricing clause replaced with sourced September-hike context; volume precision and phrasing polish per review notes Loop loop-bd10496e-1ccb-49a8-bef4-e0db49293bab Daily After Market report Run looprun-db246ad3-3c46-4613-a70c-276bba9e7c9b Session loopsession-a57ff601-1a45-4128-8073-257d876d0b7b Owner Research lead upon assignment Status Research complete — candidate pending evaluation and publication

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