Public Kempax report

Daily After Market report · 2026-08-08

Kempax Research

Loop report · 2026-08-08

Daily After-Market Report — Friday, August 7, 2026

Summary

The rebound broadened: the S&P 500 finished the week near its record zone as leadership rotated away from mega-cap technology and into financials, health care, and small caps. The S&P 500 ETF $SPY closed Friday at 773.26 +0.61% , capping a +2.06% week August 3–7 that pushed the index to its window high at 776.85 August 5 — with a relative-strength new-high signal active and no bearish triggers fired. Friday was a broad risk-on session: the Nasdaq-100 proxy $NASDAQ:QQQ led with +1.17% to 723.03 , small caps $IWM gained +1.11% to 301.56 , and the Dow ETF $NYSE:DIA rose +0.27% to 539.62 .

The week's defining feature was rotation, not retreat . Over the June 1 – August 7 window the Dow +5.51% and small caps +4.35% outperformed the S&P 500 +1.94% , while the Nasdaq proxy lagged at −2.65% — yet that masks a sharp V-shaped recovery: $NASDAQ:QQQ fell as low as 661.14 on July 29 and has since rallied +9.4% . Sector leadership tells the same story: financials $NYSE:XLF and health care $NYSE:XLV both rose roughly +12% over the window, while technology $NYSE:XLK was down −3.98% before its own late-July repair +12.9% off the low .

Caveats: $SPY's RSI 14 at 69.6 sits near overbought after the run, $NASDAQ:QQQ's realized volatility 28.6% annualized remains roughly twice the Dow's 13.8% , and mega-cap dispersion is wide — $NASDAQ:MSFT +8.6% window and $NASDAQ:NVDA flat window, +17.9% off its low contrast with $NASDAQ:TSLA −21.0% window despite a +10.5% bounce off lows . Levels and detail below. This report is informational only and is not financial advice.

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Major Index Performance

Index ETF 8 7 Close Fri Chg Week Chg 8 3→8 7 Window Chg 6 1→8 7 RSI 14 Realized Vol ann. Notes --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- $SPY S&P 500 773.26 +0.61% +2.06% +1.94% 69.6 15.3% Window high 776.85 8 5 ; new-high relative-strength signal active; MACD +5.85 $NASDAQ:QQQ Nasdaq-100 723.03 +1.17% +3.28% −2.65% 59.6 28.6% +9.4% off 7 29 low 661.14 ; next resistance 728.54 $NYSE:DIA Dow Jones 539.62 +0.27% +1.58% +5.51% 66.8 13.8% Window leader; best risk-adjusted profile Sharpe 2.15, shallowest drawdown −3.2% $IWM Russell 2000 301.56 +1.11% +1.80% +4.35% 61.8 17.9% Small caps at window highs 303.06 on 8 5

Key observations:

$SPY closed the week at 773.26 , up from 757.67 on August 3, with the week's path 8 3 → 8 4 771.33 → 8 5 769.79, window high 776.85 → 8 6 768.56 → 8 7 773.26 . The index holds above its rising 10-day 753.87 and 20-day 750.17 averages, with MACD strongly positive +5.85 and a detected up trendline. RSI 14 at 69.6 is the one caution: near-overbought after the rally.
$NASDAQ:QQQ's V-recovery is the tape's repair story. After the July 29 low of 661.14 −11.3% max drawdown on the window , the proxy has rallied +9.4% in seven sessions , and Friday's +1.17% came on a gap up open 720.15 vs Thursday close 714.65 . It now trades above its 10-day 696.98 and 20-day 700.34 averages but faces the 728.54 resistance gate; MACD −0.88 is still slightly negative, and realized volatility 28.6% remains elevated.
$NYSE:DIA is the window's strongest benchmark +5.51%, +29.7% annualized, Sharpe 2.15, −3.2% max drawdown, 13.8% volatility — the calmest profile of the four . Friday's +0.27% was the smallest gain of the day, but the higher-high higher-low structure is intact.
$IWM kept pace +1.11% Friday, +1.80% week, +4.35% window , closing at 301.56 just below its window high of 303.06 — small caps confirming the broadening tape.

Evidence: daily closing prices, ranges, gaps, and volumes for the four benchmark ETFs June 1 – August 7 ; technical indicators SMA10 20, RSI14, MACD, ATR14 and market-structure analysis over the same window; performance and risk metrics annualized return, Sharpe, max drawdown, realized volatility for the window.

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Sector Breadth — Rotation into Financials and Health Care

Sector ETF 8 7 Close Window Chg 6 1→8 7 Week Chg 8 3→8 7 Note --- --- --- --- --- Health Care $NYSE:XLV 165.68 +12.07% +2.12% Window co-leader; steady grind higher Financials $NYSE:XLF 57.60 +12.00% +0.38% Window co-leader; high 58.41 8 5 Energy $NYSE:XLE 57.50 +0.35% −2.19% Week laggard; gave back early-week gains Technology $NYSE:XLK 187.97 −3.98% +5.58% Window laggard but fastest weekly repair +12.9% off 7 29 low 166.46

Read: this is a rotation tape, not a retreat. Over the window, money moved out of mega-cap technology into financials, health care, and small caps; the last two weeks show that rotation stabilizing — tech's sharp bounce +5.6% on the week, +12.9% off its July 29 low of 166.46 while financials and health care held their gains near highs. Energy is the soft spot, ending the week down −2.2%.

Evidence: sector ETF daily close data June 1 – August 7 for $NYSE:XLK, $NYSE:XLF, $NYSE:XLE, $NYSE:XLV.

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Mega-Cap Dispersion — Wide Gaps Beneath the Index Surface

Stock 8 7 Close Window Chg 6 1→8 7 Off-Low 7 29 low → 8 7 Note --- --- --- --- --- $NASDAQ:MSFT 499.99 +8.57% — Earnings-driven jump July 30 390.54 → 451.10, +15.5% in one session ; near window high 505.18 $NASDAQ:NVDA 223.96 −0.18% +17.9% 190.01 → 223.96 Flat on the window but the strongest off-low bounce; Friday +2.3% $NASDAQ:TSLA 328.58 −20.99% 415.88 → 328.58 +10.5% 297.38 → 328.58 Window's biggest mega-cap laggard; still −21% despite the rebound

Read: index-level strength masks heavy dispersion under the surface. $NASDAQ:MSFT's post-earnings re-rating July 30 jump has been the mega-cap growth anchor; $NASDAQ:NVDA repaired decisively off its July 29 low; $NASDAQ:TSLA remains the weak spot — down 21% on the window even after a +10.5% bounce off 297.38, with its Friday +2.8% a first step rather than a trend.

Evidence: daily close data for $NASDAQ:MSFT, $NASDAQ:NVDA, $NASDAQ:TSLA June 1 – August 7 .

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Technical Outlook and Key Levels

Signal $SPY $NASDAQ:QQQ $NYSE:DIA $IWM --- --- --- --- --- Trend structure Up trendline +0.98 day Flat −0.09 day Up +0.87 day Flat-to-up +0.24 day Close vs SMA10 SMA20 773.26 753.87 750.17 — above both 723.03 696.98 700.34 — above both 539.62 530.17 525.91 — above both 301.56 295.61 294.77 — above both RSI 14 69.6 — near overbought 59.6 — neutral 66.8 — strong, not stretched 61.8 — neutral-positive MACD +5.85 — positive −0.88 — negative, improving +5.14 — positive +1.52 — positive ATR 14 9.13 1.2% 14.94 2.1% 6.60 1.2% 4.32 1.4% Window max drawdown −4.5% −11.3% −3.2% shallowest −4.0% Resistance 776.85 8 5 window high 728.54 546.75 8 5 window high 303.06 8 5 window high Support 757.67 8 3 close , 747 area 7 31 714.65 8 6 , 661.14 7 29 low 531.22 8 3 , 524.32 7 31 298.25 8 6 , 291.20 7 31 Active signals Relative-strength new high None None None

Read of the tape: three of four benchmarks are in confirmed uptrends above rising moving averages with positive MACD; the fourth $NASDAQ:QQQ is repairing from a July 29 flush with momentum still slightly negative. The principal risk is $SPY's RSI at 69.6 — near overbought after the week's run — and the wide volatility gap between the calm Dow 13.8% and the volatile Nasdaq proxy 28.6% , which keeps $NASDAQ:QQQ the structurally weakest benchmark despite its rebound. No breakdown, support-break, pullback, or volatility-compression triggers fired on any tracked benchmark this week; the only active signal is $SPY's relative-strength new high.

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Report details

Field Value --- --- Prepared August 8, 2026 Saturday , covering the August 7 US close — the most recently completed session Coverage US equity market — benchmark indices, sector rotation, mega-cap dispersion, technical signals, market structure Data window June 1 – August 7, 2026 daily ; levels as of the August 7 close Key benchmarks $SPY, $NASDAQ:QQQ, $NYSE:DIA, $IWM; sectors $NYSE:XLK, $NYSE:XLF, $NYSE:XLE, $NYSE:XLV; stocks $NASDAQ:MSFT, $NASDAQ:NVDA, $NASDAQ:TSLA Loop loop-bd10496e-1ccb-49a8-bef4-e0db49293bab Daily After Market report Run looprun-c754816d-ee64-425e-808c-a4a4e25bd2ae Session loopsession-1d3c6582-7de2-49b1-a49e-a93635fb862b Owner Research lead Status Research complete — candidate pending evaluation and publication

Sources

Market data: daily price history open high low close volume , June 1 – August 7, 2026, for the benchmarks, sector ETFs, and mega-cap stocks above; fetched August 8, 2026, after the August 7 close.
Technical indicators: SMA10 SMA20 SMA50, RSI 14 , MACD, ATR 14 computed on the same daily window; market-structure trendline and swing analysis; performance review annualized return, Sharpe, max drawdown, realized volatility ; signal scan for breakout, pullback, support-break, volume-spike, volatility-compression, and relative-strength triggers.
Data quality checks passed on the $SPY series: fresh latest bar 44 hours old at fetch , liquid ≈$37B average daily dollar volume , no duplicate bars, missing bars only on non-trading days.
All figures are computed from the recorded market data above; no third-party news claims are made in this report. Chart blocks embed the same underlying series.

This report is informational only and does not constitute financial advice. All levels reflect closing prices as of Friday, August 7, 2026 — the most recently completed US session at report time. $NASDAQ:QQQ is used as the recorded Nasdaq-100 proxy. Any investment decision requires independent evaluation and human approval.

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