Public Kempax report

Daily After Market report · 2026-08-09

Kempax Research

Loop report · 2026-08-09

Daily After-Market Report — Friday, August 7, 2026

Summary

The rebound broadened: the S&P 500 finished the week near its record zone as leadership rotated away from mega-cap technology and into financials, health care, and small caps. The S&P 500 ETF $SPY closed Friday at 773.26 +0.61% , capping a +2.06% week August 3–7 that pushed the index to its window high at 776.85 August 5 — with a relative-strength new-high signal active and no bearish triggers fired. Friday was a broad risk-on session: the Nasdaq-100 proxy $NASDAQ:QQQ led with +1.17% to 723.03 , small caps $IWM gained +1.11% to 301.56 , and the Dow ETF $NYSE:DIA rose +0.27% to 539.62 .

The week's defining feature was rotation, not retreat . Over the June 1 – August 7 window the Dow +5.51% and small caps +4.35% outperformed the S&P 500 +1.94% , while the Nasdaq proxy lagged at −2.65% — yet that masks a sharp V-shaped recovery: $NASDAQ:QQQ fell as low as 661.14 on July 29 and has since rallied +9.4% . Sector leadership tells the same story: financials $NYSE:XLF and health care $NYSE:XLV both rose roughly +12% over the window, while technology $NYSE:XLK was down −3.98% before its own late-July repair +12.9% off the low .

The macro focus of the week was the July jobs report, released Friday, August 7; specific payroll figures were not independently verified and are not cited in this report. Caveats: $SPY's RSI 14 at 69.6 sits near overbought after the run, $NASDAQ:QQQ's realized volatility 28.6% annualized remains roughly twice the Dow's 13.8% , and mega-cap dispersion is wide — $NASDAQ:MSFT +8.6% window and $NASDAQ:NVDA flat window, +17.9% off its low contrast with $NASDAQ:TSLA −21.0% window despite a +10.5% bounce off lows . Levels and detail below. This report is informational only and is not financial advice.

Benchmark Price Action

Benchmark price action, June 1 – August 7, 2026 daily :

Key observations:

$SPY closed the week at 773.26 , up from 757.67 on August 3, with the week's path 8 3 → 8 4 771.33 → 8 5 769.79, window high 776.85 → 8 6 768.56 → 8 7 773.26 . The index holds above its rising 10-day 753.87 and 20-day 750.17 averages, with MACD strongly positive +5.85 and an up trendline in place. RSI 14 at 69.6 is the one caution: near-overbought after the rally.
$NASDAQ:QQQ's V-recovery is the tape's repair story. After the July 29 low of 661.14 −11.3% max drawdown on the window , the proxy has rallied +9.4% in seven sessions, and Friday's +1.17% came on a gap up open 720.15 vs Thursday close 714.65 . It now trades above its 10-day 696.98 and 20-day 700.34 averages but faces the 728.54 resistance gate; MACD −0.88 is still slightly negative, and realized volatility 28.6% remains elevated.
$NYSE:DIA is the window's strongest benchmark +5.51%, +29.7% annualized, Sharpe 2.15, −3.2% max drawdown, 13.8% volatility — the calmest profile of the four . Friday's +0.27% was the smallest gain of the day, but the higher-high higher-low structure is intact.
$IWM kept pace +1.11% Friday, +1.80% week, +4.35% window , closing at 301.56 just below its window high of 303.06 — small caps confirming the broadening tape.

Evidence: daily closing prices, ranges, gaps, and volumes for the four benchmark ETFs June 1 – August 7 ; technical indicators SMA10 20, RSI14, MACD, ATR14 and market-structure analysis over the same window; performance and risk metrics annualized return, Sharpe, max drawdown, realized volatility .

Sector Rotation

Read: this is a rotation tape, not a retreat. Over the window, money moved out of mega-cap technology into financials, health care, and small caps; the last two weeks show that rotation stabilizing — tech's sharp bounce +5.6% on the week, +12.9% off its July 29 low of 166.46 while financials and health care held their gains near highs. Energy is the soft spot, ending the week down −2.2%.

Evidence: sector ETF daily close data June 1 – August 7 for $NYSE:XLK, $NYSE:XLF, $NYSE:XLE, $NYSE:XLV.

Mega-Cap Dispersion

Read: index-level strength masks heavy dispersion under the surface. $NASDAQ:MSFT's post-earnings re-rating July 30 jump has been the mega-cap growth anchor; $NASDAQ:NVDA repaired decisively off its July 29 low; $NASDAQ:TSLA remains the weak spot — down 21% on the window even after a +10.5% bounce off 297.38, with its Friday +2.8% a first step rather than a trend.

Evidence: daily close data for $NASDAQ:MSFT, $NASDAQ:NVDA, $NASDAQ:TSLA June 1 – August 7 .

Technical Outlook

Read of the tape: three of four benchmarks are in confirmed uptrends above rising moving averages with positive MACD; the fourth $NASDAQ:QQQ is repairing from a July 29 flush with momentum still slightly negative. The principal risk is $SPY's RSI at 69.6 — near overbought after the week's run — and the wide volatility gap between the calm Dow 13.8% and the volatile Nasdaq proxy 28.6% , which keeps $NASDAQ:QQQ the structurally weakest benchmark despite its rebound. No breakdown, support-break, pullback, or volatility-compression triggers fired on $SPY, $NASDAQ:QQQ, or $NYSE:DIA this week; the only active signal is $SPY's relative-strength new high.

Evidence: market-structure trendline and swing analysis support resistance, range widths , technical indicator suite, and signal scan for the benchmarks over the June 1 – August 7 window.

Risk Factors and Caveats

$SPY near overbought: RSI 14 at 69.6 after the rally; the 776.85 window high August 5 remains unclaimed.
$NASDAQ:QQQ still repairing: resistance at 728.54 unclaimed, MACD −0.88 slightly negative, and realized volatility 28.6% annualized roughly twice the Dow's 13.8% ; the +9.4% off-low rebound is concentrated in seven sessions.
$NYSE:XLK single-sector risk: technology remains the window laggard −3.98% at elevated realized volatility 38% , beneath an otherwise positive tape.
Macro verification gap: the July jobs report Friday, August 7 was the week's macro focus; headline figures were not independently verified and are not cited here.

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Report details

Field Value --- --- Prepared August 9, 2026 Sunday , covering the August 7 US close — the most recently completed session no trading on August 8–9 Coverage US equity market — benchmark indices, sector rotation, mega-cap dispersion, technical signals, market structure Data window June 1 – August 7, 2026 daily ; levels as of the August 7 close Key benchmarks $SPY, $NASDAQ:QQQ, $NYSE:DIA, $IWM; sectors $NYSE:XLK, $NYSE:XLF, $NYSE:XLE, $NYSE:XLV; stocks $NASDAQ:MSFT, $NASDAQ:NVDA, $NASDAQ:TSLA Loop loop-bd10496e-1ccb-49a8-bef4-e0db49293bab Daily After Market report Run looprun-0b708dfd-fba7-472c-8366-74bb3697ac37 Session loopsession-d505cdd5-2140-43c4-a82b-feea95afb692 Status Final — informational only, not financial advice

Sources

Market data: daily price history open high low close volume , June 1 – August 7, 2026, for the benchmarks, sector ETFs, and mega-cap stocks above; verified August 9, 2026, after the August 7 close.
Technical indicators: SMA10 SMA20 SMA50, RSI 14 , MACD, ATR 14 computed on the same daily window; market-structure trendline and swing analysis; performance review annualized return, Sharpe, max drawdown, realized volatility ; signal scan for breakout, pullback, support-break, volume-spike, volatility-compression, and relative-strength triggers.
Data quality checks passed on the $SPY series: fresh latest quote dated August 7 — within the weekend freshness window , liquid ≈$37B average daily dollar volume , no duplicate bars, missing values only on non-trading days.
Macro news leads headline-level only; figures not verified : WSJ — July Jobs Report live coverage; CNBC — Jobs report July 2026; St. Louis Fed — Unemployment, payrolls both drop in July.
All figures are computed from the market data embedded in this report; chart blocks embed the same underlying series.

This report is informational only and does not constitute financial advice. All levels reflect closing prices as of Friday, August 7, 2026 — the most recently completed US session at report time. $NASDAQ:QQQ is used as the Nasdaq-100 proxy. Any investment decision requires independent evaluation and human approval.

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