Public Kempax report

Daily After Market report · 2026-08-10

Kempax Research

Loop report · 2026-08-10

Daily After-Market Report — Monday, August 10, 2026

Summary

US stocks paused Monday after last week's rally, closing within 0.5% of Friday as an oil surge reshuffled leadership beneath a flat tape. The S&P 500 ETF $SPY closed at 773.03 −0.03% ; the Nasdaq-100 proxy $NASDAQ:QQQ slipped −0.30% to 720.87 , the Dow ETF $NYSE:DIA −0.12% to 538.99 , and small caps $IWM −0.52% to 299.98 — all four in the lower half of the day's range, a pause rather than a reversal after the prior week's +1.6–3.3% gains.

The day's story was oil, not equities: the energy sector $NYSE:XLE jumped +4.66% to 60.18 near its window high as the oil proxy $USO rose +6.73% , while technology $NYSE:XLK −0.88% and rate-sensitive sectors real estate −1.29%, utilities −1.10% lagged — headline coverage framed the session as "oil prices climb; Nvidia stock sinks." The volatility proxy $VIXY was flat −0.05% : no fear bid.

Under the surface, the repair continues. $NASDAQ:QQQ's MACD flipped positive +0.44 for the first time since early June , with price above its 10- and 20-day averages and +9.0% off the July 29 low 661.14 . Window rotation leadership is unchanged: health care +13.9% and financials +12.4% lead, technology lags −4.8% at 37.6% annualized volatility . The only active signal is $SPY's relative-strength new high ; no bearish triggers fired on any benchmark. Caveats: $SPY RSI at 66.8 remains elevated with the 776.85 window high unclaimed, $NASDAQ:QQQ is capped at 726.5–728.5, and sector RSIs are stretched health care 70.3, utilities 32.1 . This report is informational only and is not financial advice.

Benchmark Price Action

Key observations:

$SPY closed at 773.03 −0.03% — the first flat session after the August 3–7 run; intraday range 771.62–775.05. It holds above its rising 10-day 757.27 and 20-day 751.37 averages with MACD strongly positive +6.66 and an up trendline in place. RSI 14 at 66.78 cooled from 69.55 on Friday; the window high of 776.85 August 5 remains unclaimed.
$NASDAQ:QQQ's MACD flipped positive +0.44 — the first positive reading since early June was −0.88 on August 7 . RSI 54.61; price holds above SMA10 SMA20 700.85 700.80 ; +9.0% off the July 29 low 661.14 . It remains capped at the 726.53–728.54 resistance gate, and realized volatility 28.3% is still roughly twice the Dow's.
$NYSE:DIA is the window's strongest benchmark +5.39%; +13.7% annualized volatility, −3.2% max drawdown — the calmest profile of the four and the only one with confirmed higher-high + higher-low structure. RSI 64.23, MACD +5.37.
$IWM held near its high — 299.98 −0.52% , with a base detected tight 5.08% range and resistance at 302.43 August 5, 3 touches ; small caps continue to confirm the broadening tape.

Evidence: daily closing prices, ranges, gaps, and volumes for the four benchmark ETFs June 1 – August 10 ; technical indicators SMA10 20, RSI14, MACD, ATR14 , market-structure analysis trendlines, support resistance, range widths , performance and risk metrics, signal scan, and data-quality checks over the same window.

Sector Rotation

Read: this remains a rotation tape, not a retreat. Over the window, money has moved out of mega-cap technology into health care, financials, and small caps. Monday's session showed the rotation's two faces: energy +4.66%, near its window high of 60.45 and health care +1.67%, to a window-high close of 168.53 absorbed money, while tech −0.88% and rate-sensitive sectors real estate −1.29%, utilities −1.10% gave back ground — a session dominated by the oil move. The oil proxy $USO rose +6.73% after a two-day −6% slide August 3–5 ; the volatility proxy $VIXY was flat −0.05% , signaling no fear bid. Watch the extremes: health care RSI at 70.3 and utilities RSI at 32.1.

Evidence: sector ETF daily close data June 1 – August 10 for $NYSE:XLV, $NYSE:XLF, $NYSE:XLI, $NYSE:XLE, $NYSE:XLP, $NYSE:XLRE, $NYSE:XLY, $NYSE:XLU, $NYSE:XLC, $NYSE:XLK; oil and volatility proxies $USO and $VIXY.

Technical Outlook

Read of the tape: three of four benchmarks are in confirmed uptrends above rising moving averages with positive MACD; the fourth $NASDAQ:QQQ has now joined the constructive camp on momentum — its MACD flipped positive +0.44 for the first time since early June, with price above SMA10 SMA20 and +9.0% off the July 29 low — though it still faces the 726.53–728.54 resistance gate at elevated volatility. The principal cautions are $SPY's RSI at 66.8 near overbought, window high 776.85 unclaimed and the wide volatility gap between the calm Dow 13.7% and the volatile Nasdaq proxy 28.3% . No breakdown, support-break, pullback, or volatility-compression triggers fired on any benchmark; the only active signal is $SPY's relative-strength new high. $SPY risk metrics remain healthy: a model position at an 8% stop stays under a 1% account risk budget $995 $1,000 at 3:1 reward risk, with no event risk and a 1.42% max gap.

Evidence: market-structure trendline and swing analysis support resistance, range widths , the technical indicator suite, signal scan, and risk metrics for the benchmarks over the June 1 – August 10 window.

Risk Factors and Caveats

$SPY near overbought: RSI 14 at 66.78 after the rally; the 776.85 window high August 5 remains unclaimed after three attempts.
$NASDAQ:QQQ still gated: resistance at 726.53–728.54 unclaimed; realized volatility 28.3% annualized roughly twice the Dow's 13.7% ; the +9.0% off-low rebound is concentrated in eight sessions.
Sector extremes: $NYSE:XLV RSI at 70.3 on a window-high close and $NYSE:XLU RSI at 32.1 — stretched readings that can mean-revert quickly.
Oil spike sustainability unverified: $USO +6.73% in one session after a two-day −6% slide August 3–5 ; the underlying WTI level was not independently confirmed.
Tech weakness is headline-level only: media flagged "Nvidia stock sinks" alongside the oil move; specifics were not independently verified.
Macro: June CPI fell 0.4% m m, +3.5% y y BLS ; July CPI is expected mid-August, with a September Fed cut viewed as "likely" in one preview headline-level .

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Report details

Field Value --- --- Prepared August 10, 2026 Monday evening , covering the August 10 US close Coverage US equity market — benchmark indices, sector rotation, oil energy, technical signals, market structure Data window June 1 – August 10, 2026 daily ; levels as of the August 10 close Key benchmarks $SPY, $NASDAQ:QQQ, $NYSE:DIA, $IWM; sectors $NYSE:XLV, $NYSE:XLF, $NYSE:XLI, $NYSE:XLE, $NYSE:XLP, $NYSE:XLRE, $NYSE:XLY, $NYSE:XLU, $NYSE:XLC, $NYSE:XLK; oil vol proxies $USO, $VIXY Loop loop-bd10496e-1ccb-49a8-bef4-e0db49293bab Daily After Market report Run looprun-f06ed3f6-13f3-4d72-add5-40e3a8b979f4 Session loopsession-d8c16484-80fd-4ae6-ad9d-d8590282b3bd Status Final — informational only, not financial advice

Sources

Market data: daily price history open high low close volume , June 1 – August 10, 2026, for the benchmarks and sector ETFs above; verified August 10, 2026, after the close.
Technical indicators: SMA10 SMA20, RSI 14 , MACD, ATR 14 , realized volatility computed on the same daily window; market-structure trendline and swing analysis; performance review annualized return, Sharpe, max drawdown ; signal scan for breakout, pullback, support-break, volume-spike, volatility-compression, and relative-strength triggers; risk metrics position sizing, reward risk, gap risk . Data-quality checks passed on the $SPY series: fresh latest quote dated August 10 , liquid ≈$37B average daily dollar volume , no duplicate bars, missing values only on non-trading days.
News leads headline-level unless noted : Yahoo Finance — "Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq slip as oil prices climb; Nvidia stock sinks"; WSJ live coverage — August 10, 2026; Reuters — global markets wrap, August 10, 2026; BLS news releases — June CPI −0.4% m m, +3.5% y y; Morningstar — August CPI preview; September Fed cut "likely".
All figures are computed from the market data embedded in this report; chart blocks embed the same underlying series.

This report is informational only and does not constitute financial advice. All levels reflect closing prices as of Monday, August 10, 2026 — the most recently completed US session at report time. $NASDAQ:QQQ is used as the Nasdaq-100 proxy. Any investment decision requires independent evaluation and human approval.

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