Public Kempax report

Daily After Market report · 2026-08-11

Kempax Research

Loop report · 2026-08-11

Daily After-Market Report — Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Summary

US stocks faded into Tuesday's close: indices opened higher and slipped to small losses on a quiet, below-average-volume tape positioning ahead of this week's CPI print — small caps were the only benchmark to hold gains, and energy led sectors again on the oil rally. Tuesday's closes: $SPY 770.56 −0.32% , $NASDAQ:QQQ 718.45 −0.34% , $NYSE:DIA 537.28 −0.32% , and $IWM 300.99 +0.34% . All four benchmarks finished above their 10- and 20-day averages with $SPY's momentum positive on a neutral trend, and no scanner triggers fired on any benchmark.

The day's leadership was unchanged: the energy sector $NYSE:XLE rose +1.25% to 60.93, extending its window leadership +7.38% since July 13 on the crude-oil theme, while financials $NYSE:XLF −0.02% stayed the steadiest sector and technology $NYSE:XLK −0.12% remained the fragile leg — a −9.29% window drawdown against a +2.65% return. The macro backdrop is unusual: the July jobs report badly missed on August 7, sending September rate-hike odds tumbling, with a hawkish-leaning Fed and CPI due this week as the next catalyst.

Caveats: news evidence is headline-level only, no single-stock movers were verified, and the direction of the crude move behind energy's leadership is unconfirmed. This report is informational only and is not financial advice.

Benchmark Price Action

Key observations:

$SPY closed 770.56 −0.32% — opened 774.53, faded from the 774.61 high to the lower half of the day's range 769.20–774.61 . Holds above SMA10 760.24 and SMA20 752.30 ; RSI 14 65.36, warm but not overbought. Window +2.86% 749.17 → 770.56 , max drawdown −3.36%, realized volatility 13.4% annualized.
$NASDAQ:QQQ closed 718.45 −0.34% — the window laggard: +0.94% since July 13 with the deepest drawdown −8.05% and highest realized volatility 24.1% annualized . Tuesday's low 715.50; SMA10 at 705.15. RSI 14 55.12, the coolest of the four benchmarks.
$NYSE:DIA closed 537.28 −0.32% — window +2.44% with the calmest profile −2.18% max drawdown, 13.9% volatility . RSI 14 62.53.
$IWM closed 300.99 +0.34% — the only benchmark to close green and near its high range 300.60–301.99 ; window +2.56%. RSI 14 60.32.

Evidence: daily open high low close volume and SMA10 SMA20 series for the four benchmark ETFs, July 13 – August 11, 2026, embedded in the charts above; closes, ranges, and volumes verified against the August 11 session.

Sector Rotation

Read: Tuesday was a continuation of the oil-driven rotation, not a fresh move: $NYSE:XLE +1.25% to 60.93 window +7.38%, 88% annualized while everything else hugged the flatline. The rotation tape is intact — money keeps flowing toward energy and financials the steadiest sector at 10.5% volatility and away from high-drawdown technology. The 8 11 session's framing in live coverage was CPI positioning and oil prices. Note: health-care leadership from the prior session was not re-verified this run.

Evidence: daily close data for $NYSE:XLE, $NYSE:XLF, $NYSE:XLK July 13 – August 11 embedded in the chart above; sector window returns, drawdowns, and realized volatility from the same window.

Technical Outlook

Read of the tape: three of four benchmarks are in constructive uptrends above rising 10- and 20-day averages; $SPY's structure is neutral-trend positive-momentum inside a tight 6.2% range 729.10–776.85 with a higher high confirmed but a higher low not yet. The principal cautions: $NASDAQ:QQQ's risk-adjusted lag 0.94% return at 24.1% volatility vs $SPY's 2.86% at 13.4% , the $SPY 776.85 window-high resistance 1 touch and the strong 750.38 level 3 touches just below, and support at 738.01 729.10. RSI 14 65.36 leaves room before overbought. No breakdown, support-break, pullback, or volatility-compression triggers fired on any benchmark; the only structural note is the small up-gap 0.19% . Risk metrics remain healthy: a model position at an 8% stop stays under a 1% account risk budget $991 $1,000 at 3:1 reward risk, with 1.15% maximum gap risk and no event-risk date flagged. Illustrative sizing only — not a trade recommendation.

Evidence: market-structure swing range analysis on $SPY support 729.10 738.01, resistance 750.38 776.85, 6.2% range , technical indicators SMA10 20, EMA12, RSI14, ATR14 , signal scan, and risk metrics; see the data table in the overview for full values.

Risk Factors and Caveats

CPI is the week's dominant catalyst BLS August schedule ; Tuesday's open-higher fade-to-close pattern across all four indices is consistent with pre-print positioning, but that link is inference, not verified fact.
Tightening-risk regime: the July jobs report released August 7 badly missed and September Fed rate-hike odds tumbled CNBC, Reuters ; Fed leadership is described as hawkish-leaning Chase . Treasury yields fell on the jobs report MarketDaily .
$NASDAQ:QQQ fragility: −8.05% window drawdown vs +0.94% return at 24.1% volatility; watch 715.50 Tuesday's low and 705.15 SMA10 . $NYSE:XLK similarly carries a −9.29% drawdown at 33.2% volatility.
Oil causality unverified: headline coverage on August 11 centered on crude Yahoo Finance, Fortune , while prior coverage flagged a US–Iran peace-deal theme that can pressure crude Economic Times liveblog — the direction and causality of the oil move behind $NYSE:XLE's leadership are NOT confirmed.
Earnings names Sandisk, Cloudflare, Atlassian appear only in headline context; no single-stock moves were verified.
Coverage limits this run: news evidence is title URL-level article bodies were not readable , MACD was not computed, SMA50 is not available within the 30-day window, and health-care sector data from the prior session was not re-verified.

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Report details

Field Value --- --- Prepared August 11, 2026 Tuesday evening , covering the August 11 US close Coverage US equity market — benchmark indices, sector rotation, oil energy theme, technical signals, market structure Data window July 13 – August 11, 2026 daily ; levels as of the August 11 close Key benchmarks $SPY, $NASDAQ:QQQ, $NYSE:DIA, $IWM; sectors $NYSE:XLE, $NYSE:XLF, $NYSE:XLK Loop loop-bd10496e-1ccb-49a8-bef4-e0db49293bab Daily After Market report Run looprun-efb13766-7b36-43e5-b560-71c4bff376cf Session loopsession-158ee099-7703-4a0b-9e66-210c95e1ebb7 Status Final — informational only, not financial advice

Sources

Market data: daily price history open high low close volume and SMA10 SMA20 indicators, July 13 – August 11, 2026, for $SPY, $NASDAQ:QQQ, $NYSE:DIA, $IWM, $NYSE:XLE, $NYSE:XLF, $NYSE:XLK; verified August 11, 2026, after the close data freshness, liquidity, and integrity checks passed — no stale, duplicated, or zero-volume bars; only expected weekend gaps .
Technical indicators: SMA10 SMA20, EMA12, RSI 14 , ATR 14 , realized volatility, max drawdown, market-structure swing range analysis, signal scan, and risk metrics over the same window.
News leads headline-level unless noted : CNBC — September hike odds tumble after July jobs miss; Reuters — rate futures cut September hike chances; BLS — August 2026 CPI schedule; GoodReturns — August 11 live market blog CPI positioning ; Zacks — stock market news for August 11, 2026; Yahoo Finance — oil price, August 11; Fortune — price of oil, August 11; TalkMarkets — WTI crude analysis, August 11; Economic Times — August 7 liveblog US–Iran, crude, Fed, jobs ; Benzinga — earnings volatility watch, August 2026; Chase — Fed outlook commentary.
All figures are computed from the market data embedded in this report; chart blocks embed the same underlying series.

This report is informational only and does not constitute financial advice. All levels reflect closing prices as of Tuesday, August 11, 2026 — the most recently completed US session at report time. $NASDAQ:QQQ is used as the Nasdaq-100 proxy. Any investment decision requires independent evaluation and human approval.

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