Public Kempax report

Daily After Market report · 2026-08-12

Kempax Research

Loop report · 2026-08-12

Daily After-Market Report — Wednesday, August 12, 2026

Summary

US stocks rebounded Wednesday as the July CPI report — reported to have cooled modestly while remaining above target, keeping the Federal Reserve on hold — fueled a technology-led advance: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished higher, the Dow was flat, and small caps held solid gains, though the tape faded from the open on below-average volume. Wednesday's closes: $SPX 7748.50 +0.26% , $NASDAQ:QQQ 723.70 +0.73% , $NYSE:DIA 537.15 −0.02% , $IWM 302.71 +0.57% . Technology led on AI-stock strength $NYSE:XLK +1.49% , while discretionary $NYSE:XLY −1.13% and materials $NYSE:XLB −1.24% lagged; energy kept its window leadership $NYSE:XLE +7.56% since July 13 . Structure is constructive but stretched: the S&P 500 is overbought RSI 14 75.11 at the top of a tight 6.19% range with no breakout confirmed, and options positioning into mid-August expiries is mildly short-gamma.

Caveats: the exact CPI figures are unverified headline-level evidence only , the direction of the crude move behind energy's leadership is unconfirmed, and $NASDAQ:QQQ $NYSE:DIA are recorded proxies for the composite and Dow index series. This report is informational only and is not financial advice.

Benchmark Price Action

Key observations:

$SPY closed 772.49 +0.25% — opened 771.28, tagged 774.90, closed 772.49 mid-range; window +3.11% 749.17 → 772.49 . Holds above SMA10 7668.53 equivalent basis with RSI 14 75.11 overbought on the index.
$NASDAQ:QQQ closed 723.70 +0.73% — the day's strongest benchmark: opened 727.08 near its high 727.25 , closed 723.70; window +1.68%, still the window laggard after the July drawdown −8.05% max drawdown vs +0.94% window return as of Tuesday's close .
$NYSE:DIA closed 537.15 −0.02% — the only benchmark in the red; opened 539.01 and closed near its low 536.86 ; window +2.42% with the calmest profile.
$IWM closed 302.71 +0.57% — opened 303.02 and closed near its high 303.41 ; window +3.15%, the best of the four ETFs over July 13 – August 12.
$NYSE:XLE closed 61.03 +0.16% — energy keeps the window lead at +7.56% 56.74 → 61.03 though momentum cooled for a third straight session.

Evidence: daily close series for $SPY, $NASDAQ:QQQ, $NYSE:DIA, $IWM, $NYSE:XLE July 13 – August 12, 2026 embedded in the chart above; recorded closes, ranges, and volumes verified for the August 12 session.

Sector Rotation

Read: Wednesday was a rotation day inside a CPI relief bid — money moved into technology AI names while discretionary, materials, and communication services sold off. The two window themes are unchanged: energy's crude-driven leadership +7.56% and technology's +4.18% recovery from a deep July drawdown. Real estate +0.93% led the defensive rate-sensitive group as yields settled after the inflation print.

Evidence: recorded sector ETF closes August 12 and window bases July 13 for the table above; window returns for $NYSE:XLE, $NYSE:XLK, $NYSE:XLF, $NYSE:XLY and the four benchmark ETFs computed from embedded daily closes.

Risk Factors and Caveats

CPI is the catalyst, but the print is unverified. Headline-level coverage says July inflation "cools modestly but stays stubbornly above target, keeping Fed on hold" EconoTimes, CNBC, WSJ live coverage . The reaction — "Dow ends lower as S&P 500, Nasdaq gain on AI stocks and softer CPI" Invezz — matches the recorded closes. Exact figures were not verified, so the durability of the relief bid is unproven.
Tightening-risk regime not resolved. The July jobs report August 7 badly missed and September rate-hike odds tumbled; Fed leadership is described as hawkish-leaning. CPI "keeping the Fed on hold" is consistent with a relief bid, but the hike-cycle question remains open.
Overbought at range top. $SPX RSI 14 75.11 at 7748.50, just below resistance 7793.68, in a tight 6.19% range — mean-reversion risk; no breakout confirmed.
Short-gamma backdrop. $SPY net gamma −$211M into August 18–20 expiries with a gamma wall at 770 just below spot open-interest estimate, not observed dealer positioning .
Oil causality unverified. Energy's +7.56% window lead rides a crude rally with mixed coverage Red Sea supply risk vs US–Iran peace-deal headlines, CNBC, Motley Fool ; Monday's market slip was tied to oil-driven inflation fears.
Coverage limits this run: news evidence is title headline-level article bodies were not readable ; no single-stock movers verified; the Nasdaq Composite and Dow index series were unavailable — $NASDAQ:QQQ and $NYSE:DIA are recorded proxies; sector window returns are available for the four sectors with recorded July 13 bases.

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Report details

Field Value --- --- Prepared August 12, 2026 Wednesday evening , covering the August 12 US close Coverage US equity market — benchmark indices, sector rotation, CPI catalyst, technical signals, market structure, options backdrop Data window July 13 – August 12, 2026 daily ; levels as of the August 12 close Key benchmarks $SPX, $SPY, $NASDAQ:QQQ, $NYSE:DIA, $IWM; sectors $NYSE:XLK, $NYSE:XLE, $NYSE:XLF, $NYSE:XLY, $NYSE:XLB Loop loop-bd10496e-1ccb-49a8-bef4-e0db49293bab Daily After Market report Run looprun-97b35b3f-b924-41a4-a610-121d4cb7e2bc Session loopsession-6d21b3bb-adaa-432c-ae98-88f7080d1c76 Status Final — informational only, not financial advice

Sources

Market data: recorded daily price history open high low close volume July 13 – August 12, 2026, for $SPX, $SPY, $NASDAQ:QQQ, $NYSE:DIA, $IWM, $NYSE:XLE, $NYSE:XLK, $NYSE:XLF, $NYSE:XLY, $NYSE:XLB, $NYSE:XLC, $NYSE:XLRE, $NYSE:XLP, $NYSE:XLU, $NYSE:XLV, $NYSE:XLI; fetched after the August 12 close; data freshness, liquidity, and integrity checks passed no stale, duplicated, or zero-volume bars beyond expected weekend gaps .
Technical indicators: SMA10 SMA20 SMA50, EMA12 EMA26, MACD, RSI 14 , ATR 14 , realized volatility, market-structure swing range analysis, signal scan, and risk metrics over the same window; options backdrop from the $SPY open-interest scan August 18–20 expiries, estimate only .
News leads headline-level unless noted : EconoTimes — July CPI cools modestly, Fed on hold; CNBC — CPI inflation report July 2026; WSJ — live coverage: stock market, CPI, August 12; Invezz — Dow ends lower as S&P 500, Nasdaq gain on AI stocks and softer CPI; Yahoo Finance — live blog, August 12; Reuters — Wall St futures tick up ahead of July inflation data; CNBC — oil prices: WTI, Brent, Red Sea; Motley Fool — markets slip as oil gains fuel inflation fears August 10 .
All figures are computed from the market data embedded in this report; chart blocks embed the same underlying series.

This report is informational only and does not constitute financial advice. All levels reflect closing prices as of Wednesday, August 12, 2026 — the most recently completed US session at report time. $NASDAQ:QQQ and $NYSE:DIA are used as recorded proxies for the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average, whose index series were unavailable. Any investment decision requires independent evaluation and human approval.

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