Public Kempax report

Daily After Market report · 2026-08-18

Kempax Research

Loop report · 2026-08-18

Daily After-Market Report — Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Summary

US stocks fell across the board Tuesday — the first real distribution day of the pullback from last week's record closes $SPX set record closes August 12–13 . All four tracked benchmarks ended red: $NASDAQ:QQQ 717.51 −1.69%, on volume roughly 20% above its 20-day average — distribution , $IWM 300.23 −1.26% , $SPY 767.45 −0.68%, breaking the 769.20 support it had held Monday and closing below its 10-day average and $NYSE:DIA 532.91 −0.24%, the most resilient . Week to date Friday 8 14 → Tuesday 8 18 : $NASDAQ:QQQ −1.85%, $IWM −1.59%, $SPY −1.15%, $NYSE:DIA −0.72%.

The defensive rotation finally materialized. Energy led a third straight session $NYSE:XLE +1.76% to 63.68 , with health care $NYSE:XLV +1.60% and staples $NYSE:XLP +1.06% the other clear winners; technology $NYSE:XLK −2.47%, semiconductors sank and industrials $NYSE:XLI −1.48% lagged — only 4 of 11 sectors closed higher. The $VIX rose +4.3% to 15.84, above its 10-day average 15.11 but still below its 20-day average 16.40 : elevated, not panic. The macro driver per Reuters is fading Iran peace hopes lifting oil and bond yields — consistent with the tape energy bid, rate-sensitive growth pressured .

Technically, the swing uptrend is intact but the short-term picture deteriorated. $SPY broke the 769.20 support and closed below its 10-day SMA 772.20 while staying above the 20-day 758.68 ; RSI 14 77.22 on the Jul 1 – Aug 18 window. Structure still shows higher highs lows with an uptrend line; resistance 779.37 3 touches remains unconsummated and secondary support is 738.51. A reclaim of 769.20–772.20 would repair the short-term picture; Wednesday brings FOMC minutes and Walmart earnings Home Depot reported Tuesday; direction unverified .

Caveats: news evidence is headline title-level only; after-hours mover prices are not verifiable screener links cited as pointers only ; options figures are carried open-interest estimates from Monday's session options scanning unavailable this session ; $NASDAQ:QQQ and $NYSE:DIA are recorded proxies for the composite and Dow index series; $VIX is feed-level. This report is informational only and is not financial advice.

Benchmark Price Action

Key observations:

$SPY closed 767.45 −0.68% — gapped down −0.51% at the open 768.70 , tagged 769.50, closed 767.45 near the session low 766.92 ; broke the 769.20 support and closed below the 10-day SMA 772.20 ; window July 13 base +2.44%. RSI 14 77.22; volume 42.5M −8.7% vs 20-day average .
$NASDAQ:QQQ closed 717.51 −1.69% — the worst of the four on volume 47.9M +20% vs 20-day average : distribution. Window +0.81%; about 2.0% below its August 13 high-water close 732.07 .
$NYSE:DIA closed 532.91 −0.24% — the most resilient benchmark Tuesday; window +1.61%; below its 10-day SMA 537.58 , above the 20-day 530.67 .
$IWM closed 300.23 −1.26% — below its 10-day SMA 301.61 ; window +2.30% — small-cap leadership paused, worst week-to-date −1.59% .
$NYSE:XLE closed 63.68 +1.76% — third straight up day; window +12.23% — energy's leadership extends on the oil bid; $NYSE:XLK closed 185.62 −2.47% — gave back the week's gains; window +2.39%, −2.31% since Friday.

Evidence: daily close series for $SPY, $NASDAQ:QQQ, $NYSE:DIA, $IWM, $NYSE:XLE and $NYSE:XLK July 13 – August 18, 2026 embedded in the charts above; recorded closes, session ranges and volumes verified for the August 18 session.

Sector Rotation

Read: Tuesday was a classic risk-off rotation, the defensive one Monday lacked: money left growth tech for health care, staples and energy. Energy $NYSE:XLE +1.76%, third straight day led on the oil bid; health care $NYSE:XLV +1.60% and staples $NYSE:XLP +1.06% followed; technology $NYSE:XLK −2.47% and industrials $NYSE:XLI −1.48% were the laggards. Only 4 of 11 sectors closed higher, and the leadership pattern — defensives up, rate-sensitive growth down — is consistent with rising oil and bond yields on fading Iran peace hopes.

Options and Gamma Context

Options scanning was not available this session; the following is carried from Monday's verified reading and is explicitly stale: $SPY weekly options expiring August 24–26 showed net short gamma −$1.10B — calls +$0.31B versus puts −$1.40B — which can amplify price moves near the walls: strike 765 net put wall, −$554M and strike 780 call wall, +$47M , with the heaviest put open interest at 763 1,212 contracts . These are open-interest estimates from Monday's reading, not observed dealer positioning, and are not financial advice.

News and Catalysts

Session driver headline-level : Reuters — US stock futures drop as fading Iran peace hopes lift oil, bond yields — consistent with the verified tape energy up, rate-sensitive growth down .
Session coverage title-level only, article bodies not readable this session : Yahoo Finance — stock market today, Tuesday August 18; WSJ live coverage; Schaeffers — Nasdaq leads midday selloff as semiconductors sink; stockmarketwatch — tech sell-off drags Nasdaq lower, healthcare and energy provide the cushion.
Earnings: Home Depot reported Q2 2026 results Tuesday press release — direction of the numbers not verifiable this session. Wednesday, August 19: FOMC minutes and Walmart earnings carried from the prior verified digest .
After-hours movers: unverified prices. No extended-hours quote feed exists; mover screens are cited as pointers only — StockAnalysis, StockMarketWatch, stocknear, StockTitan, MarketChameleon, MarketWatch, EarningsWhispers. Social-media sweeps returned no fresh actionable signal stale threads only and are not treated as evidence.

Risk Factors and Caveats

Distribution volume in tech. $NASDAQ:QQQ −1.69% on volume 20% above its 20-day average — the first high-conviction down day of the pullback; a second distribution day would argue the correction has legs.
Support break under $SPY. 769.20 1 touch broke Tuesday; the next technical line is the 20-day SMA 758.68, then 738.51. A reclaim of 769.20–772.20 would repair the short-term picture.
Breakout still unconsummated. Resistance 779.37 3 touches not broken; $SPY is about 1.3% below its August 13 record close of 777.88.
Still overbought. $SPY RSI 14 77.22 and $NASDAQ:QQQ 74.80 Jul 1 – Aug 18 window — three down sessions have not relieved the stretch.
Headline-driven macro. Fading Iran peace hopes are lifting oil and bond yields; a reversal or escalation in that narrative would swing energy and rate-sensitive growth the other way.
Event risk Wednesday. FOMC minutes and Walmart earnings, with Home Depot's Tuesday report direction unverified.
Coverage limits. News evidence headline title-level only; no verified after-hours prices; options figures carried from Monday stale ; $VIX feed-level; $NASDAQ:QQQ and $NYSE:DIA are recorded proxies for unavailable index series; options figures are open-interest estimates.

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Report details

Field Value --- --- Prepared August 18, 2026 Tuesday , after the close Coverage US equity market — benchmark indices, sector rotation, technical signals, market structure, options context, week-ahead catalysts Data window Daily closes July 13 – August 18, 2026 indicators July 1 – August 18 ; levels as of the August 18 close Key benchmarks $SPX, $SPY, $NASDAQ:QQQ, $NYSE:DIA, $IWM, $VIX; sectors $NYSE:XLK, $NYSE:XLE, $NYSE:XLF, $NYSE:XLY, $NYSE:XLB, $NYSE:XLC, $NYSE:XLRE, $NYSE:XLP, $NYSE:XLU, $NYSE:XLV, $NYSE:XLI Loop loop-bd10496e-1ccb-49a8-bef4-e0db49293bab Daily After Market report Run looprun-583c6792-c45c-49f6-b3f7-2d03bde4cf52 Session loopsession-9d660454-8158-40cc-9852-fbfaa024151c Status Report candidate for review — informational only, not financial advice

Sources

Market data: recorded daily price history open high low close volume for the benchmarks and sectors above, verified at the August 18, 2026 close latest bar dated 2026-08-18 for every tracked symbol .
Technical indicators: SMA10 SMA20, MACD, RSI 14 , ATR 14 , realized volatility, market-structure swing range analysis, signal monitoring, and illustrative risk metrics.
Options: open-interest-based gamma exposure for $SPY weekly expirations Aug 24–26, carried from Monday's session — an estimate, not observed dealer positioning; not refreshed this session.
News leads headline-level unless noted : Reuters Iran peace hopes oil bond yields ; Yahoo Finance, WSJ, Schaeffers, stockmarketwatch August 18 session coverage ; Home Depot Q2 press release; FOMC minutes and Walmart earnings Wednesday, carried from the prior verified digest .
All figures are computed from the market data embedded in this report; chart blocks embed the same underlying series daily closes, July 13 – August 18, 2026 .

This report is informational only and does not constitute financial advice. After-hours price moves were not verifiable at report time no extended-hours quote feed; mover screens are cited as pointers only ; news evidence is headline-level; options figures are carried from Monday's session and are stale open-interest estimates. $NASDAQ:QQQ and $NYSE:DIA are used as recorded proxies for the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average, whose index series were unavailable. Any investment decision requires independent evaluation and human approval.

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