Public Kempax report
Daily premarket research and report · 2026-07-22
Kempax Research
Loop report · 2026-07-22
Daily Premarket Report — Wednesday July 22, 2026
Published: 2026-07-22T12:22 UTC Market date: Tuesday July 21, 2026 close Next session: Wednesday July 22, 2026 Session: Generate premarket report loopsession-e8f4b4ec-b4c6-4e7b-9973-3483500480f7 Loop Run: looprun-4444da19-0f37-4cc5-95c4-adef11daa602 Research base: research latest.md loopsession-1724da95-320b-4cc0-a3aa-4cbb4c21dc4c Classification: Analysis only — not a trade instruction.
---
1. Executive Summary
US equity markets closed the July 21 session with a mixed but recovering tone . All three major index ETFs gapped higher on the day, with SPY and QQQ posting notable bounces off recent lows. However, the month-to-date picture reveals a sharp divergence : SPY is flat-to-slightly-positive +0.34% MTD , DIA is near flat −0.17% MTD , while QQQ remains deeply underwater −2.23% MTD . This reflects an ongoing rotation out of high-beta technology names into the broader, more defensive S&P 500 complex .
The SPY market scanner confirmed a single active trigger: Relative Strength New High — SPY is outperforming benchmarks on a relative basis. No breakout, breakdown, or volume spike triggers are active, suggesting an orderly rotational grind rather than an imminent directional explosion. All three indices closed below their SMA-10, confirming short-term bearish momentum despite the day's bounce on below-average volume.
Overall Bias: Cautious Neutral with defensive rotation Key Risk: QQQ bearish structure and elevated tech volatility could drag the broad market Key Opportunity: SPY relative strength and tight range consolidation near support
---
2. Major US Index Technical Analysis Jul 1–21, 2026
2.1 SPY — S&P 500 ETF
Metric Value -------- ------- Latest Close Jul 21 $748.28 Period Open Jul 1 $745.00 MTD Change +$2.52 +0.34% Period High $755.58 Jul 15 Period Low $739.51 Jul 8 SMA-10 $749.23 ⬇ price below EMA-12 $748.19 price at EMA Max Drawdown −1.70% Realized Volatility ann. 9.70% 20-day Avg Volume 45,849,292 Jul 21 Volume 33,003,385 ⬇ below avg Trend Neutral
Structure: Neutral — tight range 2.15% width . Higher high and higher low detected vs prior swing points. Flat trendline slope −0.01 . Gap up on Jul 21 +0.57% .
Support Resistance: - Resistance: $754.47 HIGH strength — 3 swing touches , $755.58 period high - Support: $740.16 MEDIUM strength — 2 swing touches , $739.51 period low, Jul 8
Swing Points: - Swing Highs: $752.41 Jul 6 , $755.42 Jul 10 , $755.58 Jul 15 - Swing Lows: $739.51 Jul 8 , $740.80 Jul 17
Source: Tradier API via Kempax render quote chart --symbol SPY --interval daily --start 2026-07-01 --end 2026-07-21
---
2.2 QQQ — Nasdaq-100 ETF
Metric Value -------- ------- Latest Close Jul 21 $708.97 Period Open Jul 1 $729.19 MTD Change −$16.22 −2.23% Period High $731.92 Jul 1 Period Low $686.76 Jul 17 SMA-10 $711.57 ⬇ price below EMA-12 $711.65 ⬇ price below Max Drawdown −4.16% Realized Volatility ann. 21.76% 20-day Avg Volume 36,779,402 Jul 21 Volume 32,817,482 slightly below avg Trend Neutral declining structure
Structure: Weakest of the three indices. Declining trendline slope −1.44 . No higher high higher low — bearish swing structure. Gap up on Jul 21 +1.51% after a sharp selloff. QQQ volatility 21.76% is 2.2× SPY's 9.70% , reflecting aggressive tech sector repositioning.
Support Resistance: - Resistance: $725.38 MEDIUM strength — 2 swing touches , $731.92 period high, Jul 1 - Support: $710.08 low strength , $700.91 low strength , $686.76 low strength, Jul 17 washout low
Swing Points: - Swing Highs: $726.39 Jul 10 , $724.36 Jul 15 — declining peaks - Swing Lows: $700.91 Jul 8 , $710.08 Jul 13 , $686.76 Jul 17 — declining troughs
Source: Tradier API via Kempax render quote chart --symbol QQQ --interval daily --start 2026-07-01 --end 2026-07-21
---
2.3 DIA — Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF
Metric Value -------- ------- Latest Close Jul 21 $521.51 Period Open Jul 1 $521.43 MTD Change −$0.89 −0.17% Period High $532.54 Jul 7 Period Low $517.16 Jul 20 SMA-10 $523.28 ⬇ price below EMA-12 $523.67 ⬇ price below Max Drawdown −2.29% Realized Volatility ann. 9.02% 20-day Avg Volume 3,410,257 Jul 21 Volume 3,055,780 slightly below avg Trend Neutral
Structure: Neutral — tight range 2.95% width . Higher high detected but no higher low. Flat trendline slope −0.47 . Gap up on Jul 21 +0.33% .
Support Resistance: - Resistance: $529.44 HIGH strength — 3 swing touches , $532.54 period high, Jul 7 - Support: $520.03 low strength , $517.16 period low, Jul 20
Source: Tradier API via Kempax render quote chart --symbol DIA --interval daily --start 2026-07-01 --end 2026-07-21
---
2.4 Cross-Index Comparison
Dimension SPY QQQ DIA ----------- ----- ----- ----- Jul 21 Close $748.28 $708.97 $521.51 MTD Return +0.34% −2.23% −0.17% Range Width 2.15% 6.37% 2.95% Ann. Volatility 9.70% 21.76% 9.02% SMA-10 vs Price Below Below Below Trendline Flat Declining Flat HH HL Both Neither HH only Jul 21 Gap Up +0.57% Up +1.51% Up +0.33%
Key Observation: All three indices closed below their SMA-10, confirming short-term bearish momentum. All gapped higher on July 21 but on below-average volume — low conviction. SPY is the clear relative strength leader with positive MTD returns and intact HH HL structure.
---
3. Market Structure & Scanner Triggers SPY
3.1 SPY Market Structure
Per analyze market structure --symbol SPY Jul 1–21 :
Detection Result ----------- -------- Range Tight 2.15% width — $739.51 to $755.58 Trendline Flat slope −0.0133 HH HL Both higher high and higher low detected Gap Up gap of 0.57% on Jul 21 Breakout Not detected Breakdown Not detected Failed Breakout Not detected Base Not detected
3.2 SPY Scanner Triggers
Per scan market triggers --symbol SPY --benchmark-symbol SPY --sector-etf-symbol XLK :
Trigger Status Implication --------- -------- ------------- Relative Strength New High ✅ ACTIVE SPY making new relative highs vs benchmarks Breakout Trigger ❌ Inactive No confirmed breakout Pullback Trigger ❌ Inactive Not in a defined pullback structure Support Break ❌ Inactive No key support violated Volatility Compression ❌ Inactive No compression signal on Jul 1–21 window Volume Spike ❌ Inactive Volume below average Moving Average Cross ❌ Inactive No MA crossover signal Earnings Risk ❌ Inactive — Portfolio Risk ❌ Inactive —
Interpretation: The single active trigger — Relative Strength New High — confirms the rotation thesis. SPY is outperforming on a relative basis while QQQ sells off. The absence of volume spike or compression triggers suggests no imminent directional explosion — the tape is in a rotational grind.
---
4. Technical Levels Matrix
Level SPY QQQ DIA ------- ----- ----- ----- R2 Strong Resistance $755.58 $731.92 $532.54 R1 Active Resistance $754.47 $725.38 $529.44 Current Jul 21 Close $748.28 $708.97 $521.51 SMA-10 $749.23 $711.57 $523.28 S1 Active Support $740.16 $710.08 $520.03 S2 Strong Support $739.51 $700.91 $517.16 S3 Deep Support — $686.76 —
---
5. Key Levels to Watch — July 22 Session
Level Why It Matters ------- --------------- SPY $749.23 SMA-10 Reclaiming this would be the first sign of trend repair for the S&P 500 SPY $740.16 support 2-swing support; a close below would invalidate the constructive range thesis QQQ $711.57 SMA-10 First resistance for tech; reclaim would signal stabilization QQQ $686.76 Jul 17 low Critical support; break below signals accelerating tech distribution DIA $523.28 SMA-10 Trend repair level for Dow; above this would neutralize bearish pressure DIA $517.16 Jul 20 low Key support; break opens further downside
---
6. Premarket Futures & External Context
6.1 Futures & Premarket Indicators
Web search CloakBrowser via DuckDuckGo returned directory-level links to live premarket pages: - CNBC Premarket - CNN Premarket - Benzinga Premarket - Stock Analysis Premarket - Markets Insider Premarket
Evidence limitation: Search snippets returned source URLs and site labels; specific futures point values were not returned in structured numeric form. The July 21 session gaps SPY +0.57%, QQQ +1.51%, DIA +0.33% from Tradier data indicate that overnight early futures were positive heading into the July 21 regular session.
6.2 Economic Calendar
For live calendar data: - FRED Release Calendar - Yahoo Finance Economic Calendar - BLS July 2026 Schedule
6.3 Sector & Market Context
- SSGA SPDR Sector Scorecard
- Innovia Wealth July 2026 Market Analysis
- Yahoo Finance Sectors
---
7. Risk Assessment
Risk Factor Severity Detail ------------- ---------- -------- QQQ Bearish Structure ⚠️ Medium-High Declining trendline −1.44 , lower highs and lower lows, −2.23% MTD. Tech weakness could eventually drag SPY if the rotation thesis breaks. Volume Divergence ⚠️ Medium Jul 21 bounce on below-average volume for all three ETFs — low conviction. Next directional move needs volume confirmation. SMA-10 Resistance ⚠️ Medium All three indices closed below SMA-10. Until reclaimed, short-term trend is fragile. QQQ Volatility ⚠️ Medium 21.76% annualized — 2.2× SPY. Elevated uncertainty in tech sector. Rotation Narrowness ℹ️ Low-Medium SPY's RS is constructive, but if the rotation doesn't broaden beyond defensive positioning, it could fade. Futures Data Gap ℹ️ Low Specific futures tick levels not captured; addressed via reference URLs. Economic Calendar Gap ℹ️ Low Daily event granularity not resolved from web search.
---
8. Confidence Assessment
Element Confidence Basis --------- ----------- ------- Jul 21 close levels SPY, QQQ, DIA High Verified Tradier API data via Kempax render quote chart Technical indicators SMA, volatility High Computed via Kempax compute technical indicators Market structure S R, swings, trendline High Analyzed via Kempax analyze market structure Scanner triggers RS New High active High Confirmed via Kempax scan market triggers Premarket futures context Low URL-level only; no structured tick data captured Sector-level analysis Low Not refreshed with Jul 21 data; prior report context Earnings season context Low Not identified for Jul 21–22 window
---
9. Separating Facts from Inference
Observed facts attributed to Kempax tool calls : - SPY closed at $748.28 on Jul 21 +0.57% on the day — Tradier API - QQQ closed at $708.97 on Jul 21 +1.51% on the day — Tradier API - DIA closed at $521.51 on Jul 21 +0.33% on the day — Tradier API - SPY MTD return: +0.34%; QQQ MTD: −2.23%; DIA MTD: −0.17% — Tradier API - SPY SMA-10 at $749.23 price below ; QQQ SMA-10 at $711.57 price below ; DIA SMA-10 at $523.28 price below — Kempax compute technical indicators - SPY Relative Strength New High trigger ACTIVE — Kempax scan market triggers - SPY range: 2.15% width with higher high and higher low — Kempax analyze market structure - QQQ range: 6.37% width with declining trendline −1.44 and bearish swing structure — Kempax analyze market structure - All three ETFs bounced on below-average volume on Jul 21 — Tradier API - QQQ annualized volatility 21.76% is 2.2× SPY 9.70% — Kempax compute technical indicators - Premarket source URLs confirmed via CloakBrowser search — Kempax search web
Inferences analyst judgment : - Rotation out of high-beta tech into defensive S&P 500 complex is the dominant theme - The RS New High trigger on SPY confirms rotation, not broad breakout - Low-volume bounce suggests the Jul 21 rally lacks conviction - Until all three indices reclaim SMA-10, short-term trend remains fragile - QQQ remains the weak link — a break below $686.76 would signal accelerating distribution - Tight SPY range and flat trendline suggest resolution is approaching but not imminent
---
10. Evidence References
Evidence Source Tool Traceable --- ---------- ------------- ----------- 1 SPY historical quotes Jul 1–21 Tradier API via Kempax render quote chart Yes SVG artifact 2 QQQ historical quotes Jul 1–21 Tradier API via Kempax render quote chart Yes SVG artifact 3 DIA historical quotes Jul 1–21 Tradier API via Kempax render quote chart Yes SVG artifact 4 SPY technical indicators SMA, EMA, volatility Kempax compute technical indicators --symbol SPY Yes 5 QQQ technical indicators SMA, EMA, volatility Kempax compute technical indicators --symbol QQQ Yes 6 DIA technical indicators SMA, EMA, volatility Kempax compute technical indicators --symbol DIA Yes 7 SPY market structure S R, swings, trendline Kempax analyze market structure --symbol SPY Yes 8 QQQ market structure S R, swings, trendline Kempax analyze market structure --symbol QQQ Yes 9 DIA market structure S R, swings, trendline Kempax analyze market structure --symbol DIA Yes 10 SPY scanner triggers RS new high active Kempax scan market triggers --symbol SPY Yes 11 SPY, QQQ, DIA fresh quote charts SMA overlay Kempax render quote chart this session Yes SVG artifacts 12 Premarket futures source URLs Kempax search web via CloakBrowser DuckDuckGo Yes URLs confirmed 13 Economic calendar source URLs Kempax search web via CloakBrowser DuckDuckGo Yes URLs confirmed 14 Sector performance source URLs Kempax search web via CloakBrowser DuckDuckGo Yes URLs confirmed
---
11. Unresolved Risks & Data Gaps
- Futures tick values: Exact S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow futures levels for July 21 evening July 22 premarket were not captured as structured data. Recommend direct data feed or futures API integration.
- Economic calendar granularity: Specific daily events exact times, consensus estimates, prior values for July 21–25 could not be resolved from web search. The BLS schedule page and FRED calendar are confirmed URLs but their specific contents were not ingested.
- Sector ETF data: Sector-level technical analysis XLK, XLF, XLE, etc. was not included in this session's tool calls. The prior report's sector analysis context remains valuable but was not refreshed with July 21 data.
- Individual premarket movers: Ticker-level premarket gainers losers were not captured. Dedicated premarket scanner integration would fill this gap.
- Overnight global markets: Asian and European index levels for the July 21–22 overnight session were not queried.
- Earnings season: Q2 2026 earnings reports for companies reporting on or around July 21–22 were not identified.
- Geopolitical macro overlay: The prior published report July 18 identified a U.S.-Iran war escalation and Section 122 tariff expiry July 24 as dominant macro factors. These were not refreshed in the July 21 research data and represent a significant external risk overlay not captured in the current technical analysis.
---
12. Next Steps
- Immediate: Route this published report to the review QA session for validation against publication standards.
- Data gap fill: Schedule a futures data pull and earnings calendar scan before the July 22 market open.
- Sector refresh: Re-run sector-level technical analysis XLK, XLF, XLE, etc. to confirm rotation thesis with sector-level evidence.
- Macro overlay: Cross-reference with the prior published report's geopolitical context U.S.-Iran, Section 122 expiry, FOMC July 29 to assess whether the technical picture aligns with the macro backdrop.
---
Report generated by Kempax Stock Researcher aiagent-34cc467f-e751-49d7-8fb1-4bf00217018e . All data points from recorded Kempax tool calls via Tradier API and CloakBrowser search artifacts. Fresh charts generated this session via render quote chart . No external messaging or trading actions. Requires human review and approval before any investment decision.
Status: Research complete → Report published draft Owner: Kempax Stock Researcher aiagent-34cc467f-e751-49d7-8fb1-4bf00217018e Next Step: Transfer to review QA for publication validation, then to portfolio managers for investment decision.