Public Kempax report

Daily premarket research and report · 2026-08-04

Kempax Research

Loop report · 2026-08-04

Premarket Report — Tuesday, August 4, 2026

As of: 2026-08-04 premarket. Index and ETF closes reflect the 2026-08-03 session daily window 2026-07-01 → 08-03 ; options open interest is an estimate across the three nearest weekly expirations Aug 10–12 and is not observed dealer positioning. Classification: Analysis only — not a trade instruction. Human approval required before any investment decision.

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Executive Summary

Inflation is the market's dominant theme entering Tuesday's session. Headline PCE inflation stands at 4.1% 12 months to May , core PCE at 3.4% , and energy prices are up +24% year over year — while the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50%–3.75% last week with three dissents in favor of a rate hike 1 . Philadelphia Fed President Paulson reinforced the hawkish tilt today, keeping an "open mind" on policy and warning that "the passage of time without progress would itself signal that more restrictive policy is needed" if underlying inflation which he estimates at 2.4%–2.8% stays stubbornly elevated 2 .

The bond market is already repricing this: long-duration fixed income has been under pressure for a month. $TLT long Treasuries is down −3.89% since July 1 and sits oversold RSI 31 ; $SCHP broad TIPS is down −1.37% with RSI 28 — the deepest monthly drawdown of any instrument tracked here. By contrast, short-duration TIPS are holding their ground : $VTIP is up +0.22% on the month with negligible volatility annualized 1.4%, max drawdown −0.36% , and $STIP is down only −0.52%. That performance split — short TIPS resilient, longer-duration TIPS and nominals weak — is consistent with rising real yields and a steep breakeven curve, the configuration the Fed's own report describes 1 3 . The research base concludes short-duration TIPS offer the best inflation-protection risk reward in this environment, while long-duration TIPS carry material mark-to-market risk if the Fed hikes again 1 .

Equities remain firm but narrow: $SPY closed at $757.67 +1.60% since July 1 , above both its 10- and 20-day averages; $IWM closed at $296.22 , also above its key averages; but $QQQ at $700.07 is still −3.46% on the month and only just reclaimed its 20-day average after a −8.8% drawdown in July 4 . Options positioning supports a range-bound tape: the dominant $SPY call wall sits at $760 net gamma +$117M, just 0.3% above spot , $QQQ's wall is at $700 essentially at the money , and $IWM's pin is $295 with a secondary wall at $300. Net gamma is positive across all three indices +$279M, +$168M, +$71M respectively 5 .

Week's calendar: $NASDAQ:AMD and SpaceX report earnings today, $SNDK and $NASDAQ:WDC on Wednesday, and July nonfarm payrolls land Friday 08:30 ET — the week's dominant macro release after a weak June print 9 . $NYSE:PLTR reported after Monday's close 9 10 .

Overall assessment: CAUTIOUS — inflation risk rising near-term, anchored long-term; favor short-duration inflation hedges over long duration; equity positioning is neutral-to-bullish but event-heavy into payrolls.

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1. Macro Inflation Snapshot

Metric Current Prior Year Trend --- --- --- --- Headline PCE 12mo to May 4.1% 2.5% ↑ sharply Core PCE 12mo to May 3.4% 2.8% ↑ PCE Energy 12mo to May +24% — ↑ surge Core Goods PCE 2.4% 0.6% ↑ sharply Housing Services PCE 3.2% 4.1% ↓ improving Core Nonhousing Services 3.9% — ↑ elevated Dallas Trimmed Mean PCE 2.4% 2.6% ↓ modestly Unemployment Rate Jun 4.2% — ↔ stable Fed Funds Rate 3.50%–3.75% — ↔ held Jul 29–30 FOMC

Evidence: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Report, July 2026 1 .

Inflation expectations — the split that matters:

Short-term expectations have risen sharply: University of Michigan 12-month expectations moved from 3.4% Feb to 4.6% June 1 .
Long-term expectations remain anchored: SPF median expects PCE inflation to average 2.1% over the 5-year period beginning 5 years from now; market-based TIPS breakevens at the long end are "little changed" year-to-date 1 3 .

The divergence between hot near-term expectations and anchored long-term expectations is exactly the steep-breakeven-curve environment that structurally favors front-end inflation protection over long-duration real assets 1 .

Fed policy posture post-July 29–30 FOMC

Rate held at 3.50%–3.75%; three dissents voted for a HIKE including Cleveland Fed's Hammack 1 .
Chair Warsh declined to provide forward guidance; the Fed has commissioned an independent task force exploring inflation frameworks 1 .
Paulson Philadelphia Fed , Aug 4: "open mind" on rates; supports the hold for now; underlying inflation estimated at 2.4%–2.8%; "my highest priority is delivering 2 percent inflation while sustaining full employment"; oil prices "have since jumped and remain volatile," though supply shocks "can be temporary," reinforcing the case for looking through them 2 .

Net assessment: Policy bias is asymmetric to the hawkish side — rate cuts are off the table; the live debate is hold vs. hike. Near-term credibility is challenged, long-run credibility intact.

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2. Fixed Income & Inflation-Hedge Positioning live market data

Instrument Latest close 8 3 Since 7 1 RSI 14 ATR 14 Max drawdown Ann. volatility --- --- --- --- --- --- --- $VTIP — Vanguard Short-Term TIPS $49.63 +0.22% 51.9 $0.06 −0.36% 1.4% $STIP — iShares 0–5 Yr TIPS $100.60 −0.52% 30.2 $0.12 −0.83% 2.9% $SCHP — Schwab U.S. TIPS broad $25.88 −1.37% 27.5 $0.07 −1.62% 3.8% $TLT — 20+ Yr Treasury $82.19 −3.89% 31.0 $0.59 −3.89% 8.1% $GLD — Gold $371.71 +0.30% 49.6 $6.26 −4.49% 21.1%

Evidence: live market data, daily window 2026-07-01 → 08-03, latest candle 2026-08-03, fetched 2026-08-04 4 . Data QA: fresh latest candle age < 37h , liquid, no gaps beyond weekends holidays 6 .

Reading the tape

Duration is the risk, not inflation accrual. The month's damage is concentrated where duration is longest: $TLT −3.89% and $SCHP −1.37% vs. $VTIP +0.22%. This is the signature of rising real yields — nominal yields rising faster than breakevens — consistent with hawkish Fed repricing 1 4 .
$SCHP at RSI 27.5 and $TLT at RSI 31.0 are oversold — a technical bounce is plausible, but the trend is down until the inflation Fed path stabilizes 4 .
Short TIPS are behaving like their design intent: near-zero drawdown −0.36% , 1.4% annualized volatility, and CPI accrual — the best risk-adjusted inflation hedge currently available 1 4 .
Gold is flat +0.30% despite the inflation backdrop — the research base notes gold is "likely bid" as a competing hedge, but it carries no yield and higher volatility 21.1% annualized ; TIPS offer a direct contractual CPI link with positive real yields and no credit risk 1 4 .

Segment verdicts research base

Purpose Verdict Rationale --- --- --- Inflation protection Attractive short-duration TIPS PCE 4.1%, energy +24%, tariff pass-through — CPI accrual is valuable with minimal rate risk 1 Tactical duration Avoid long-end TIPS Three FOMC dissenters want hikes; real yields can rise further 1 2 Income Moderate Real yields positive but modest; better than negative-real-return nominals 1 Nominal Treasuries Unattractive Deeply negative real return at 4.1% PCE; duration risk if the Fed hikes 1 Strategic allocation Overweight short TIPS, underweight long TIPS Steep breakeven curve favors the front end; long-end expectations anchored 1

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3. Market Overview closes, daily window 7 1 → 8 3

Metric $SPY $QQQ $IWM --- --- --- --- Latest close 8 3 $757.67 $700.07 $296.22 Since 7 1 +1.60% −3.46% −1.04% RSI 14 53.9 42.1 52.7 vs SMA-10 SMA-20 above $742.86 above $746.01 above $688.15 at $699.88 above $292.85 above $293.85 Realized vol ann. 12.7% 23.7% 14.0% ATR 14 $8.89 $15.07 $4.18 Period max drawdown −3.4% −8.8% −3.6%

Evidence: live market data, daily window 2026-07-01 → 08-03, fetched 2026-08-04 4 .

$SPY reclaimed both its 10- and 20-day averages and closed at the top of its July range; $IWM is structurally the most intact index, above all major averages. $QQQ — the month's laggard after a −8.8% drawdown — closed essentially on its 20-day average, with the tech-led advance not yet confirmed beyond that line 4 .

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4. Options Gamma Walls open-interest estimates, expirations Aug 10–12

Instrument Primary call wall Distance from spot Put wall Distance from spot Net gamma all strikes --- --- --- --- --- --- $SPY $760 $117M net gamma +0.3% $735 −$67M −3.0% +$279M $QQQ $700 $30M net gamma 0.0% ATM $680 −$27M −2.9% +$168M $IWM $295 $27M net gamma −0.4% $290 −$9M −2.1% +$71M

Notes: Walls are the strikes with the largest net gamma exposure from call and put open interest; they mark levels where delta-hedging flows concentrate and prices can be pinned or accelerate through. Distances vs. the 2026-08-03 closes above. Figures are open-interest-derived estimates, not observed dealer positions 5 .

$SPY: The $760 wall dominates — 5,643 calls vs 309 puts, +$117M net gamma, roughly 2.3× the next largest single-strike exposure. Spot closed $757.67, so the wall is directly overhead at +0.3%; a push through $760 is where dealer hedging flows historically amplify follow-through. Support below clusters at $755–$757 net gamma +$11M to +$30M per strike and the $750 area, which carries a heavy put block 3,512 puts . The $735 put wall is the deeper downside shelf 5 .

$QQQ: The $700 wall sits right at spot and coincides with the 20-day average $699.88 — the cleanest technical positioning confluence on the board. $QQQ's put structure is lighter than $IWM's put wall $680, −2.9% , so downside is less defended; a sustained close above $700 would confirm participation broadening 4 5 .

$IWM: The $295 pin 6,842 calls is backed by a second large call block at $300 4,715 calls, +$24.7M — a call ladder into round-number resistance. Downside is cushioned by the dense put block at $287–$290. $IWM's range is the most tightly bracketed of the three 5 .

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5. Options Ladder Summaries calls puts open interest, net gamma exposure, expirations Aug 10–12

5.1 $SPY close $757.67

Strike Call OI Put OI Net gamma $M --- --- --- --- $748 955 1,354 −5.4 $749 901 1,026 −1.9 $750 2,578 3,512 −12.9 $751 760 718 +0.4 $752 1,051 1,128 −1.5 $753 1,346 1,573 −4.1 $754 1,786 2,433 −11.0 $755 3,599 2,944 +11.0 $756 2,522 1,959 +14.5 $757 2,827 1,344 +29.9 $758 1,837 1,429 +7.8 $759 1,681 478 +23.7 $760 5,643 309 +116.9 $761 1,631 304 +28.3 $762 1,393 329 +22.1 $763 1,766 469 +26.6 $764 1,650 1,102 +10.0 $765 2,901 2,017 +16.3 $766 2,045 1,214 +14.0 $767 3,554 384 +51.6 $768 1,496 181 +19.6

5.2 $QQQ close $700.07

Strike Call OI Put OI Net gamma $M --- --- --- --- $690 1,688 1,151 +4.5 $691 558 394 +1.4 $692 273 537 −2.4 $693 332 246 +0.8 $694 399 163 +2.2 $695 1,897 1,122 +7.3 $696 242 721 −4.7 $697 832 481 +3.4 $698 734 873 −1.6 $699 987 162 +7.8 $700 3,561 635 +29.8 $701 609 176 +4.5 $702 612 74 +5.5 $703 414 62 +3.6 $704 257 149 +1.0 $705 1,421 541 +8.5 $706 348 196 +1.6 $707 614 36 +5.8 $708 402 114 +2.8 $709 831 71 +7.4 $710 1,826 216 +14.3

5.3 $IWM close $296.22

Strike Call OI Put OI Net gamma $M --- --- --- --- $287 29 1,897 −3.9 $288 199 1,623 −3.4 $289 66 720 −1.8 $290 667 3,478 −8.6 $291 2,818 1,004 +6.4 $292 2,618 549 +7.7 $293 2,691 1,054 +6.6 $294 918 865 +0.3 $295 6,842 1,152 +27.1 $296 4,561 1,162 +16.8 $297 1,388 239 +6.5 $298 1,830 37 +10.4 $299 1,052 46 +5.7 $300 4,715 26 +24.7 $301 473 16 +2.1 $302 874 3 +3.4 $302.5 8 0 +0.0 $303 253 2 +0.8 $304 199 10 +0.5 $305 368 0 +0.8 $306 323 0 +0.5

Evidence: options open interest and gamma exposure by strike, three expirations 2026-08-10 11 12 aggregated, fetched 2026-08-04 5 . Net gamma = call gamma exposure + put gamma exposure; positive values reflect call-dominant long-gamma strikes. Open-interest estimates, not observed dealer positioning.

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6. Catalysts & What to Watch

Fed speakers and the hike debate — Paulson's "open mind" comments today 2 follow three hawkish dissents at the July 29–30 meeting 1 . Watch for further FOMC commentary; the live policy debate is hold vs. hike.
Oil remains the swing variable — energy drove PCE +24% after Strait of Hormuz disruptions 1 ; Monday saw crude plunge more than 5% on de-escalation hopes before the reported timeline was contradicted 8 . Paulson notes supply shocks "can be temporary" 2 . A durable resolution would unwind near-term breakevens; renewed escalation would push them higher.
Earnings continue — $NASDAQ:AMD and SpaceX report today ; $SNDK and $NASDAQ:WDC on Wednesday; the AI-demand bar was set Monday night when $NYSE:PLTR reported after the close 9 10 .
Friday 08:30 ET: July nonfarm payrolls — the week's dominant macro release; a strong print would reinforce the no-cut hike-side debate and pressure long-duration bonds further 9 .
$SPY vs. the $760 wall — spot closed $757.67, 0.3% below the dominant call wall. A close through $760 can extend the breakout; failure keeps the tape pinned in the $755–$760 ladder 5 .
$QQQ reclaim of $700 — the wall coincides with the 20-day average; a sustained move above confirms broadening tech participation after a −8.8% July drawdown 4 5 .

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7. Risk Assessment

Elevated

Renewed energy shock Middle East escalation — the largest single variable for TIPS and breakeven valuations; a new supply disruption would push near-term inflation expectations already at 4.6% per Michigan higher 1 2 .
Fed forced to hike — three dissents already favor one; if underlying inflation 2.4%–2.8% per Paulson does not moderate, "more restrictive policy" is the stated response. Long-duration TIPS and nominal bonds would take capital losses 1 2 .
Tariff pass-through still evolving — core goods inflation jumped 0.6% → 2.4% YoY; the aftermath of the February Supreme Court ruling and replacement tariffs is unresolved 1 .

Moderate

$QQQ structure — still −3.46% on the month and untested above its 20-day average; tech earnings today are a binary for the index 4 9 .
Payrolls surprise — Friday's release is the week's macro pivot; a hot print pressures both equities and long bonds 9 .
AI capex sustainability — demand-driven price pressure in semiconductors electronics is a genuine second-round inflation channel, per the Fed's own report 1 .

Data gaps unverified

Exact real-yield and breakeven levels by tenor 5y 10y 30y TIPS are not captured in this research pass; the Fed's weekly TIPS yield-curve data is the authoritative refresh source 3 .
TIPS ETF flows $VTIP $STIP $SCHP are unverified — investor positioning is inferred from prices and open interest only.
Options figures are open-interest estimates , not observed dealer positioning 5 .

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8. Sources

Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Report, July 2026 PCE 4.1%, core 3.4%, energy +24%, inflation expectations, FOMC dissents, task force — https: www.federalreserve.gov monetarypolicy 2026-07-mpr-part1.htm
Reuters, "Fed's Paulson keeps open mind on rate policy outlook amid high inflation," Aug 4, 2026 — https: www.reuters.com business feds-paulson-keeps-open-mind-rate-policy-outlook-amid-high-inflation-2026-08-04
Federal Reserve TIPS Yield Curve and Inflation Compensation methodology and data — https: www.federalreserve.gov data tips-yield-curve-and-inflation-compensation.htm
Live market data $SPY $QQQ $IWM $VTIP $STIP $SCHP $TLT $GLD, daily window 2026-07-01 → 08-03, latest candle 2026-08-03 , fetched 2026-08-04
Options open interest gamma exposure by strike $SPY $QQQ $IWM, expirations 2026-08-10 11 12 , fetched 2026-08-04 — open-interest estimates, not observed dealer positioning
Market data QA $VTIP, daily window 2026-07-01 → 08-03 , fetched 2026-08-04 — freshness and liquidity checks passed
Research base: research latest.md TIPS & Inflation-Protected Bonds, 2026-08-04
Trading Strategy Guides, "Stock Market Preview August 3, 2026: Oil Collapse Drives Futures" — https: tradingstrategyguides.com stock-market-preview-august-3-2026-oil-collapse-drives-futures
Reuters, "Wall St starts the month strong as Mideast deal hopes rise," Aug 3, 2026 — https: www.reuters.com business wall-st-futures-edge-up-mideast-deal-hopes-healthcare-focus-2026-08-03
MarketBeat earnings calendar $NYSE:PLTR, Aug 3 — https: www.marketbeat.com earnings reports 2026-8-3-palantir-technologies-inc-stock

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⚠️ This report is analysis only — not a trade instruction. Gamma figures are open-interest-based estimates, not observed dealer positioning, and are not financial advice. All investment decisions require human portfolio manager approval.

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Report details

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Field Value --- --- Loop Daily premarket research and report loop-aaca4a8f-86da-4e19-9ef8-be8c7e4f6b68 Run looprun-65b40cb4-0c64-4848-8ec3-b11ca4c17015 Session Build reviewed premarket report candidate loopsession-ccb305d6-f0b2-4099-8f91-2a83a1363695 Owner Research Lead assignment pending Workspace ws-01 Status Research complete — awaiting human review and evaluation Data window Market data 2026-07-01 → 08-03 daily ; options open interest expirations 2026-08-10 11 12; fetched 2026-08-04 Operational status No active incidents or alarm alerts at report time Publication Pending service-authored publisher session after evaluation

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