Public Kempax report

Daily premarket research and report · 2026-08-12

Kempax Research

Loop report · 2026-08-12

Premarket Report — Wednesday, August 12, 2026

As of: Tuesday, August 11, 2026 daily close — all market levels through August 11 unless noted. Premarket context for Wednesday, August 12 headline evidence captured 12:20 UTC . Focus: July CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET, futures edging higher, oil Strait of Hormuz re-escalation, and $SPY 0.8% below its record high.

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Summary

July CPI is today's binary event 8:30 a.m. ET . Dated live coverage confirms the release for Wednesday, August 12 W1 W2 W3 , and Reuters' preview describes US consumer prices rising moderately in July with gasoline prices easing W4 — a disinflationary-adjacent setup versus June's −0.4% SA print +3.5% YoY; core 0.0% SA +2.6% YoY, BLS W14 . Index futures were edging higher into the print per TipRanks, with TheStreet and Barron's running live coverage W5 W15 W16 ; direction is title-level only, no numeric premarket levels were captured.

$SPY sits 0.8% below the record after fading an up-gap. Tuesday's close was 770.56 −0.32% : the session opened with an up gap +0.19% at 774.53 and faded to mid-range M1 M2 . The 776.85 record intraday high Aug 5 remains the breakout trigger. Technicals show no stress — RSI 65.36, realized volatility 13.76%, all five major proxies above their 50-day averages — and the relative-strength new-high signal remains the only active trigger in the monitored set M1 M5 .

Oil Strait of Hormuz is the overnight theme, and tech has a premarket mover. Attacks are denting hopes for the strait's reopening, lifting oil prices Al Jazeera, Aug 12 W7 W8 ; $XLE gained +1.25% Tuesday as the momentum sector M7 . $NASDAQ:SMCI is rallying premarket on an AI-capex narrative flagged among today's movers W9 , though the specific driver is unverified — the stock remains in a three-month decline with one bull thesis at +55% upside W10 .

Options flow is net-negative gamma. $SPY weekly expirations 08-18 19 20 show net gamma −$247.1M with the primary gamma wall at 770 and net wall at 768; heaviest put open interest clusters 765–770 O1 . CPI-driven moves through that zone could amplify — an open-interest estimate, not observed dealer positioning.

Stance: constructive while $SPY holds 736.88 seven-touch, high-strength support . A sustained close above 776.85 opens the breakout case; a break of 736.88 shifts risk toward 729.10, then 719.59 M2 .

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Market structure — $SPY coiling below the record

Tuesday's gap-up fade open 774.53 → close 770.56, −0.32% leaves $SPY 0.8% below the 776.85 record intraday high from August 5. The 6.2% range 729.10–776.85 remains intact with no base detected; momentum is positive, volatility is expanding, and ATR14 is 9.01 M2 . Secondary resistance at 753.27 six touches now sits below price; the seven-touch support at 736.88 is the risk line, with 729.10 and 719.59 behind it M2 .

Tuesday's session and window performance

Energy led Tuesday +1.25% on the oil Hormuz theme while small caps showed relative strength $IWM +0.34% ; the large-cap proxies faded their opening gaps M1 M3 M4 M7 M8 . Over the May 1 → Aug 11 window, tech leads +14.96% and energy trails +3.53% despite the recent oil strength — all five proxies are positive on the window.

Options & gamma context

The structure is put-heavy: heaviest put open interest clusters 765–770, and the net wall at 768 sits just below the underlying 774.2 O1 . This is an open-interest estimate, not observed dealer positioning — treat the amplification zone as indicative, not precise.

Premarket context headline evidence, Aug 12

CPI confirmed for today, 8:30 a.m. ET — dated live coverage from Yahoo Finance, WSJ and a calendar listing W1 W2 W3 ; preview coverage from Reuters, Kiplinger, NBC News and Business Insider W4 W11 W12 W13 . Consensus figures were not captured in recorded evidence.
Futures edge higher into the print TipRanks, Aug 12 W5 ; TheStreet and Barron's live pages W15 W16 ; an ambiguous Yahoo Finance slug is treated as a hint only W6 . No numeric futures levels were captured.
Oil Strait of Hormuz: "Oil prices rise as attacks dent hopes for Strait of Hormuz reopening" Al Jazeera, Aug 12 W7 ; US–Iran context CNBC, Aug 11 W8 ; EIA and IEA supply-side references surfaced W17 W18 .
Premarket mover: AI-capex surge and Super Micro rally flagged for Aug 12 W9 ; $NASDAQ:SMCI premarket quote page W19 . Driver unverified.
Global session: no dated Asia Europe direction titles recorded this cycle — only generic market pages W20 W21 W22 .

Data notes & limitations

Market data: daily closes through 2026-08-11 for $SPY, $QQQ, $IWM, $XLE, $XLK; technicals, market structure, trigger scan and the risk model computed from that window M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 M6 M7 M8 ; options context from the weekly expiry scan O1 .
Premarket state: recorded news headline evidence captured 12:20 UTC ; futures direction at title level only — no numeric premarket levels.
News evidence: recorded titles URLs; article bodies could not be retrieved, so the $NASDAQ:SMCI rally driver and CPI consensus figures remain unverified.
Scope: index ETF technical focus; no issuer-level fundamentals were pulled this cycle.
Operational context: no active incidents and no enabled alarm rules at composition time prior recorded check .

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⚠️ This report is analysis only — not a trade instruction or recommendation. All investment decisions require human portfolio manager approval. Data vintage: daily closes through 2026-08-11; premarket headline evidence captured 2026-08-12.

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Report details

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Field Value ------- ------- Loop Daily premarket research and report loop-aaca4a8f-86da-4e19-9ef8-be8c7e4f6b68 Run looprun-35c5d1e2-211d-4196-b699-03e5beaa47eb Session Draft reviewed premarket report candidate loopsession-1ffd711e-fe7a-4041-8a40-443570b0c863 Agent Stock Researcher Owner Research Lead Workspace ws-01 Status Research complete Coverage tags psdtag-premarket, psdtag-daily Data window Daily closes through 2026-08-11; premarket headline evidence 2026-08-12 Operational status No active incidents; no enabled alarm rules Publication Pending service-authored publisher session after current-run evaluation

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