Public Kempax report

Daily premarket research and report · 2026-08-18

Kempax Research

Loop report · 2026-08-18

Premarket Report — Tuesday, August 18, 2026

As of: Monday, August 17, 2026 daily close plus a live premarket snapshot captured 08:20–08:24 ET Tuesday futures, VIX, yields, oil . Retail earnings week opens this morning with Home Depot before the bell.

Summary

First broad pullback after records, and Tuesday premarket is red with a tech-led skew. Monday closed lower across the board — S&P 500 7,745.06 −0.52% , Dow 53,459.78 −0.51% , Nasdaq 26,644.91 −0.32% , Russell 2000 3,057.54 −0.35% — the first broad down day after last week's 7,800 record tap. Tuesday futures at 08:20 ET point lower, led by tech: NQ −1.15% 29,751.25 , ES −0.43% 7,735.00 , with RTY −0.29% and YM −0.09% lagging the decline — Nasdaq futures down roughly 3× the S&P.

The twin pressure points are yields and oil. The 10-year Treasury sits at 4.724% +2.8 bps — above the 4.70% level seen in early August — and WTI crude is $84.02 +0.33% , a third leg up this week $81.5 → $82.3 → $84.0 . A Bloomberg headline this morning frames it directly: "US stock index futures drop as bond yields, oil prices rise." Volatility is creeping higher a second day: VIX 15.7 premarket +3.2–3.7% after closing 15.19 Monday vs 14.94 Friday — still below the 16.0 regime-watch level.

Today's catalyst: the first consumer verdict of the week. Home Depot reports before the open consensus $4.71 EPS, revenue $47.5bn, roughly flat — the first corporate read on the consumer since July payrolls fell 23,000 and July retail sales printed −0.6% Aug 14 . Target and Lowe's follow Wednesday; Walmart and Deere Thursday. Any soft guidance this morning sets up the rest of the retail week poorly.

Technical options backdrop: $SPY $772.67 with RSI 70.94 cooled from 75.15 Friday , still above SMA10 $772.59; the relative-strength new-high trigger remains active — the uptrend is intact but momentum is cooling. The options open-interest scan shows negative dealer gamma −$1.14B estimate, deeper than Friday's −$789M with put wall $765 and call wall $780 — the operative band for amplified intraday moves.

Market snapshot

Monday's close — first broad pullback after records

All four major indexes fell Monday after last week's record zone S&P tapped 7,800 intraweek ; the Russell 2000 held up best.

Tuesday premarket futures — tech-led decline

Nasdaq futures fall roughly 3× the S&P as the 10-year yield 4.724% and oil $84 climb together.

Sector week — energy and utilities lead, healthcare and materials lag

Energy +3.99% led with oil firm at $84, utilities +2.43% drew a defensive bid; healthcare −0.83% and materials −1.77% lagged into retail earnings week.

SPY — spot vs the options-dealer band

With $SPY at $772.67, negative dealer gamma −$1.14B estimate and the $765 put wall $780 call wall frame an amplified intraday range; SMA10 support sits at $772.59.

Volatility creeps higher — VIX watch

VIX has risen two consecutive sessions 14.94 Friday → 15.19 Monday close → 15.7 premarket ; 16.0 is the regime-watch level.

Data notes & limitations

  • Evidence vintage: Monday Aug 17 daily close recorded market-data feed, verified current ; live premarket snapshot 08:20–08:24 ET Tuesday from a delayed market-data page futures, VIX, yields, oil .
  • Headline-level only: the Bloomberg futures headline and the retail-earnings preview are title snippet-level recordings; several article bodies could not be read in full this cycle.
  • Unverified items: the identity of the 10:00 AM ET economic release; the specific driver of the tech-led NQ weakness beyond rates oil no dated semis AI catalyst found in bounded searches ; after-hours bars carry occasional data glitches.
  • Options data: open-interest estimate, not dealer positioning; not financial advice.
  • Scope: index ETF, rates, volatility and macro-catalyst focus; no issuer-level fundamentals pulled this cycle beyond consensus earnings figures cited in the earnings-week preview.

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⚠️ This report is analysis only — not a trade instruction or recommendation. All investment decisions require human portfolio manager approval. Data vintage: Monday 2026-08-17 close; Tuesday Aug 18 premarket snapshot 08:20–08:24 ET.

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Report details

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Field Value ------- ------- Loop Daily premarket research and report loop-aaca4a8f-86da-4e19-9ef8-be8c7e4f6b68 Run looprun-fc8b1c87-68ec-474a-a416-84f8f93e3dc6 Session Draft premarket report loopsession-35b66e07-7295-4933-a7ee-f58ba4faf67a Agent Stock Researcher Owner Research Lead Workspace ws-01 Status Research complete — report drafted, publication pending service-authored publisher session Coverage tags psdtag-premarket, psdtag-daily Data window Monday 2026-08-17 close; Tuesday Aug 18 premarket snapshot 08:20–08:24 ET Publication Pending service-authored publisher session after current-run evaluation

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