Public Kempax report

Daily premarket research and report · 2026-08-25

Kempax Research

Loop report · 2026-08-25

Premarket Report — Tuesday, August 25, 2026

As of: Monday, August 24, 2026 official daily close ETF level and Tuesday premarket headlines 08:20 ET . Numeric Tuesday futures levels were not available at writing time. Analysis only — not a recommendation; all investment decisions require human portfolio manager approval.

Summary

Premarket is green and tech-led after a mixed Monday. US stock futures point higher as semiconductor stocks rebound ahead of Wednesday's $NASDAQ:NVDA earnings, and investors shrug off the expanded US sanctions against Iran as oil prices retreat Reuters, U.S. News, TipRanks — headline-level; no numeric futures levels were available . The same-day catalyst is Consumer Confidence at 10:00 ET, preceded by a downbeat retailer signal: $NYSE:DKS cut its annual forecasts as athleticwear demand weakens.

Monday's cash session closed mixed and slightly lower, with the Dow diverging from tech. Feed-sourced ETF closes: $SPY 763.47 −0.29% , $QQQ 706.32 −1.00% , $IWM 297.97 −0.66% while $DIA rose 533.65 +0.27% ; $NASDAQ:NVDA fell −2.91% to 208.48 ahead of Wednesday's print — matching the recorded headline "Dow Rises, Tech Slumps Ahead of Nvidia Earnings." The hard-asset bid stayed intact: $GLD +0.79% to 426.69 spot gold near records at $4,666.70 as of Friday's close and long bonds firmed $TLT +0.62% to 82.56 . Friday's index closes carry-over : S&P 500 7,674.37, Nasdaq 26,180.46, Dow 53,277.01, Russell 2000 3,017.87, VIX 15.13.

The week pivots on Super Wednesday. July Core PCE 08:30 ET, +0.2% m m expected and the Q2 GDP second estimate +1.5% expected stack with $NASDAQ:NVDA Q2 FY2027 earnings after the close est. EPS $2.09; also $NYSE:CRM, $NASDAQ:CRWD . Jackson Hole Aug 27–29 then hosts Fed Chair Warsh's keynote Friday — framed as the "tiebreaker for September" FOMC Sep 16, hike odds 1-in-3 in a 3.50–3.75% fed-funds world — alongside the preliminary annual nonfarm-payroll revision.

Sector breadth still favors real assets. August month-to-date through Friday carry-over : energy $XLE +8.25%, RSI 75.4 and healthcare $XLV +7.63%, RSI 77.1 lead; utilities $XLU −3.58%, RSI 32.0 and industrials $XLI −1.59% lag. Monday nibbled at the leaders $XLE −0.83% ; whether today's premarket semis rebound sticks will test the tech rotation ahead of Wednesday. The fiscal-credibility theme — Treasury Secretary Bessent's expanded long-duration buybacks Aug 19 , weak dollar, gold at records, breakevens at 2-month highs — remains the dominant cross-asset undercurrent.

$SPY — daily price action through Monday

The Aug 13 record-close zone intraday high 779.37 gave way to a pullback that continued into Monday: $SPY closed 763.47, −0.29%, the first down close after Friday's bounce and −2.0% from the Aug 13 peak. Higher-highs higher-lows structure from the prior register remains intact with no breakout breakdown signal.

Monday's session — a mixed tape

One session, two markets: the Dow rose while tech slumped ahead of $NASDAQ:NVDA, and the hard-asset bid $GLD held — all feed-sourced official closes.

Sector rotation — real assets lead August

Energy and healthcare still lead August through Friday's close; utilities and industrials lag. Monday's $XLE −0.83% trims the leader only slightly.

Data notes & limitations

Evidence vintage: official daily closes through Monday Aug 24, 2026 at ETF level market-data feed, current run — F1 ; Friday index closes, yields and prior technicals are carry-over as of the Fri 8 21 close E1 E9 E10 E11 E6a–j . Tuesday premarket is direction-only from recorded headlines R1 R2 R3 R13 .
Not available this session: numeric Tuesday futures levels; Monday index levels ETF-level closes used instead ; a current VIX level 15.13 as of Fri 8 21 close carry-over ; Tuesday yield levels; a numeric DXY proxy $UUP carry-over ; a numeric gold spot level for Monday $GLD proxy; spot $4,666.70 as of Fri 8 21 .
Headline-level items flagged: futures direction, Monday session character now directionally confirmed by F1 closes , DKS earnings detail, oil direction, gold '3-month high' characterization, Jackson Hole schedule, Treasury buyback news, weekend 'Trade War' headline detail unverified — caution flag, not fact .
DKS is one retailer sporting goods, with a Foot Locker read-through — not presented as a broad consumer verdict.
Discrepancies carried from the prior register: WTI spot $86.77 vs front-month futures $91.08 gap; one calendar source's core PCE y y +3.3% inconsistent with core CPI 2.5% — the +0.2% m m estimate is preferred until release.

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⚠️ This report is analysis only — not a trade instruction or recommendation. All investment decisions require human portfolio manager approval. Data vintage: Monday 2026-08-24 official close ETF level ; Tuesday premarket headline-level.

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Report details

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Field Value ------- ------- Loop Daily premarket research and report loop-aaca4a8f-86da-4e19-9ef8-be8c7e4f6b68 Run looprun-97626c8c-cfa1-4ced-b9ee-16b3bc296237 Session Draft premarket report loopsession-0035dc40-2f72-40a5-9a3e-422a48d6aedc Owner Research Lead Workspace ws-01 Coverage tags psdtag-premarket, psdtag-daily Data window Monday 2026-08-24 close ETF level ; Tuesday 2026-08-25 premarket headline-level ; carry-over as of Friday 2026-08-21 close

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