Public Kempax report

Daily premarket research and report · 2026-10-26

Kempax Research

Loop report · 2026-10-26

Premarket Market Brief: Monday, October 26, 2026

The latest signed, complete U.S. cash session was Friday, October 23. From October 1 through October 23, $DIA gained 2.51%, $SPY fell 0.53%, $IWM fell 1.17% and $QQQ fell 5.07%. These are unadjusted close returns, not total returns, breadth, flows or causal attribution. A source-reported October 26 premarket snapshot showed S&P futures up 0.40%, Dow futures up 0.44%, Nasdaq futures up 0.71% and Russell futures up 0.20%; it is not a signed exchange feed or forecast.

The fixed research priority remains 1 Energy, 2 Materials, 3 Technology, 4 Industrials: $XLE leads after a breakout but is extended, $XLB is positive into resistance, $XLK is oversold and repair-sensitive, and $XLI has a confirmed support break. Crude was down 2.02% in the premarket snapshot, so the open did not independently confirm Energy’s Friday surge. The accepted package now includes sector-window context and issuer evidence from the four sector notes, but not complete constituent breadth or direct flows. No fixed sector slot is removed or exchanged.

The macro evidence is current but bounded rather than a complete live regime call. The official October 23 Treasury curve reports 2-year nominal 4.69%, 5-year 4.82%, 10-year 5.00%, 30-year 5.33%, 5-year real 2.34%, 10-year real 2.66% and 30-year real 3.08%; 2s10s is +31 bp and 10s30s +33 bp. October 23 SOFR was 3.92% on $3.065 trillion of volume. This supports elevated nominal and real-rate pressure without a funding-break conclusion; reserves, deposits, lending standards, current credit spreads and direct flows were not captured.

The October 26 option scans cover all three retained ladders but remain incomplete open-interest estimates: $SPY net gamma −$177.88M at 56.15% coverage, $QQQ −$22.44M at 62.64%, and $XLE +$4.31M at 50.88%. They are not observed dealer positioning or live flow; $XLE displayed ladder volume was zero. The October 22 EIA storage release reports October 16 working gas at 3,644 Bcf, 77 Bcf above the prior week, 152 Bcf below year-ago levels and 35 Bcf above the five-year average; the October 21 petroleum release reports a 3.061-million-barrel crude draw. EIA natural gas storage · Federal Reserve H.15 · New York Fed SOFR

Options positioning incomplete open-interest estimates

The October 26 package includes scans for $SPY, $QQQ and $XLE. The three existing chart slots retain their baseline strike identities for continuity; current values are inserted where the current scan contains the baseline strike, while absent baseline rows remain explicitly dated continuity values. Aggregate gamma is an open-interest estimate, not observed dealer positioning or live flow, and is not financial advice. $XLE displayed ladder volume was zero, and each scan excludes contracts without usable gamma or positive open interest.