Public Kempax report

Weekly Dollar Liquidity Report · 2026-08-08

Kempax Research

Loop report · 2026-08-08

Weekly Dollar Liquidity Report — Week of Aug 3–7, 2026

Executive summary

  • The dominant event this week was a policy-pivot repricing, not a balance-sheet move. The FOMC held the federal funds rate at the Jul 29 meeting with a hike still on the table Trepp, iTrustCapital . Five days later, the July jobs report shocked to the downside — nonfarm payrolls -23,000 ecmsource with unemployment steady at 4.1% IndexBox — and markets repriced: September hike odds tumbled and rate-cut expectations jumped Reuters, CNBC . The rate environment has shifted toward easing — supportive for liquidity conditions across assets.
  • Fed balance sheet: runoff has ended; the sheet sits near $6.7T. Quantitative tightening was wound down earlier in 2026 SVB, Banking Exchange; size ≈ $6.7T per PrimeRates . The weekly H.4.1 release for the week ending Aug 5 was published Aug 6 ALFRED, H.4.1 , so the data pipeline is current; exact weekly levels of total assets, securities holdings, and reserve balances could not be independently verified this week flagged gap .
  • Treasury General Account: broadly flat, slightly drained. Recorded daily changes: Jul 31 -$12.14B IndexBox , Aug 3 -$6.48B IndexBox , Aug 4 +$5.41B IndexBox , Aug 5 +$5.10B IndexBox , Aug 6 +$0.32B IndexBox . Net ≈ -$7.8B drawn Jul 31→Aug 6 ≈ +$4.4B over Aug 3–6 — a small net injection of reserves into the banking system.
  • Treasury issuance: $125B August refunding announced; Q3 borrowing estimate raised $68B. Coupon auctions of 3-, 10-, and 30-year securities $125B are scheduled for mid-August Treasury PR sb0590, newsroomamerica ; the Q3 net borrowing estimate jumped +$68B PrimeRates . Heavier supply ahead is the main offsetting liquidity drag.
  • Money markets: Treasury yields fell after the jobs miss WSJ, Briefs after holding steady into the report CNBC . Money-market fund assets sit at record territory — $7.92T in June 2026 ecmsource and recently reported at $7.8T Crypto Briefing — a large cash buffer that should help absorb upcoming supply canonical source: ICI .
  • Global dollar funding: mid-2026 USD funding pressure remains a live theme. Multiple August-2026 analyses describe USD funding strains in FX markets — Treasury cash flows and RRP dynamics shaping USD FX volatility contentwave , funding pressure reshaping FX carry contentwave , and a dedicated dollar-liquidity pulse tracker CondorEdge . Cross-currency basis levels in basis points could not be verified this week flagged gap; CME publishes an index: CME .
  • Risk assets responded to the pivot; the dollar softened. $SPY closed at $773.26 on Aug 7, +3.5% week-over-week measured daily data; see chart below , with equities rallying through the week on the jobs shock Motley Fool, Alphatrader, Investopedia . In FX, weak jobs data triggered a "Fed rate shift" narrative with gold surging FinanceFeeds ; the dollar had drifted higher pre-payrolls on Iran-talks headlines CNBC . Brent crude was $82.27 on Aug 7, +5.45% over the past month TradingEconomics — an inflation cross-current.

Bottom line: Dollar liquidity conditions are stable-to-improving — no runoff, a mild TGA draw, near-record money-fund cash — and the rate regime repriced decisively toward easing this week. The main offsets are heavier Treasury supply mid-August refunding + raised Q3 borrowing and a persistent, unquantified USD funding-pressure theme in FX markets. Net bias for risk appetite: positive.

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Week-over-week change summary

Dimension This week Aug 3–7, 2026 Change vs prior week Driver evidence --- --- --- --- Fed policy Hold at Jul 29 FOMC; hike bias Pivot to cut repricing after Aug 7 jobs shock Trepp, Reuters, CNBC Balance sheet QT Ended 2026 ; $6.7T post-QT Stable; runoff no longer draining reserves SVB, PrimeRates, Banking Exchange H.4.1 weekly levels Release for week ending Aug 5 published Aug 6 Levels unverified this week ALFRED, H.4.1 TGA Net ≈ -$7.8B drawn Jul 31→Aug 6 Small liquidity add mild draw IndexBox daily trackers URLs above ON RRP n a Level unverified this week FRED RRPONTSYD, NY Fed Issuance $125B refunding; Q3 est. +$68B Supply headline; mid-Aug auctions pending Treasury, PrimeRates Rates Yields fell after jobs miss Bullish for bonds WSJ, Briefs Money funds $7.8T record $7.92T in June Near-record cash on the sidelines Crypto Briefing, ecmsource Credit HY IG spreads — level unverified this week n a FRED HY OAS, FRED BBB OAS, FRED CCC Global dollar funding Mid-2026 USD funding pressure theme ongoing Levels unverified this week contentwave Aug 2026, CME Risk appetite $SPY +3.5% w w; gold surged; dollar softer bias Improvement through the week Fool, FinanceFeeds

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Charts

$SPY daily, week of Aug 3–7, 2026 measured data; prior week included for context

Treasury General Account daily cash changes, Jul 31 – Aug 6, 2026 negative = TGA drawdown = reserves injection

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Detailed findings

1. Fed policy and the rate regime primary driver this week - FOMC meeting Jul 28–29, 2026: rates held , with a hike still framed as on the table Trepp, iTrustCapital; statement: Fed press release . - July jobs report Aug 7 : NFP -23,000 "shock", ecmsource ; unemployment steady at 4.1% IndexBox ; described as "unexpected turbulence" Indeed Hiring Lab . - Market reaction: September hike odds tumbled CNBC, Reuters ; rate-cut expectations built for August September stockwirex, Forbes . - Liquidity implication: an easing bias loosens the binding constraint on risk assets; the previous hike-tilt — the week's key tightening risk — has reversed in market pricing.

2. Fed balance sheet H.4.1 - Quantitative tightening ended in 2026 — "The Federal Reserve Ends QT: Key Market Liquidity Insights" SVB ; the end of runoff came early relative to plans Banking Exchange . - Balance sheet size reported at ≈ $6.7 trillion after QT PrimeRates ; Fed's own May 2026 balance-sheet developments report Fed . - Weekly H.4.1 publishing is on schedule: release dated 2026-08-06 week ending Aug 5 ALFRED; current: H.4.1 . - GAP: exact H.4.1 levels total assets, securities holdings, reserve balances for the week ending Aug 5 could not be read from the source pages this week; any older figures should be treated as stale.

3. Treasury General Account - Recorded daily changes from Treasury's daily statement, via IndexBox trackers : see chart above — Jul 31 -$12.14B link , Aug 3 -$6.48B link , Aug 4 +$5.41B link , Aug 5 +$5.10B link , Aug 6 +$0.32B link . Net ≈ -$7.8B Jul 31→Aug 6. - Interpretation: a TGA drawdown injects an equivalent amount of reserves back into the banking system — mildly liquidity-positive this week. July's swings were of the same order e.g., -$3.96B on Jul 22 , IndexBox . - GAP: the TGA level was not retrievable this week; authoritative level source: Treasury Fiscal Data — daily treasury statement, FRED WTREGEN.

4. ON RRP reverse repo - GAP: no take-up figure verified for this week. Series pages: FRED RRPONTSYD series data visible through 2026-08-04 in search indexes , NY Fed repo desk, FRED graph. - Context: an August 2026 analysis notes Treasury cash flows and RRP dynamics are shaping USD FX volatility this month contentwave .

5. Treasury issuance net supply - August 2026 quarterly refunding: $125B of 3-, 10-, and 30-year securities, auctions scheduled for mid-August Treasury PR sb0590, newsroomamerica, Traders Union . - Q3 2026 net borrowing estimate raised $68B PrimeRates — heavier coupon supply ahead; a "mixed bag for global liquidity" per Euro Pacific. - Auction data source: Treasury auction data.

6. Money markets - Treasury yields fell after the July jobs miss WSJ, Briefs , after holding steady into the data CNBC . - Money-market funds: record $7.92T in June 2026 ecmsource, Serrari, ICI data PR ; latest reported $7.8T Crypto Briefing — a large dry-powder reserve that caps upward rate pressure and should support supply absorption. Canonical weekly source: ICI MMF stats. - GAP: SOFR EFFR prints, T-bill yields, and the bill-vs-coupon net issuance split not verified this week. Sources: NY Fed SOFR, NY Fed EFFR, FRED SOFR, FRED DGS3MO, Treasury daily bill rates 2026, Treasury yield curve 2026.

7. Credit conditions - GAP: HY IG option-adjusted-spread levels not verified this week. Series anchors: ICE BofA HY OAS, ICE BofA BBB OAS, CCC OAS, HY effective yield. - Data freshness: $HYG high-yield ETF daily data is current through 2026-08-07 recorded market-data QA . - Signal: risk appetite improved with the rate repricing; credit spreads typically compress in that regime, but that is inference, not measured evidence this week.

8. Global dollar funding FX - Mid-2026 USD funding pressure is a documented theme: how mid-2026 USD funding pressure is reshaping FX carry, June-2026 USD funding strains and their continuing impact on FX, cross-currency basis as a leading USD-funding signal, post-2026 FX swap spreads and hedged carry; live tracker: CondorEdge dollar liquidity pulse. CME publishes the EUR-USD cross-currency basis index CME watch, EUR xccy . - This week's FX: dollar drifted higher pre-payrolls on Iran-talks headlines CNBC ; after the weak jobs data, a "Fed rate shift" narrative with gold surging FinanceFeeds . - GAP: FX-swap basis levels bp and eurodollar SOFR futures pricing not verified this week. Anchors: FRED DTWEXAFEGS, MarketWatch DXY.

9. Cross-market impact assessment with evidence - Equities — positive. $SPY closed $773.26 on Aug 7, +3.5% w w measured daily data; rally coverage: Fool, Investopedia, WSJ live, Barron's . The rate-cut repricing loosens the constraint on equity valuations. - Bonds — positive. Yields fell post-jobs WSJ ; offsetting supply pressure from the $125B mid-August refunding and the +$68B Q3 borrowing revision PrimeRates . - Dollar — mixed-to-soft. Pre-jobs strength on Iran talks CNBC reversed into a "rate shift" + gold surge FinanceFeeds ; the mid-2026 USD funding-pressure theme keeps FX-swap markets in focus contentwave . - Risk appetite — improved, with a commodity cross-current. Stocks rallied through the week Alphatrader ; gold surged FinanceFeeds ; Brent $82.27 Aug 7 , +5.45% m m TradingEconomics amid Iran talks AP .

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Gaps and limitations explicit

  • Page-level values not independently readable this week — several quantitative figures rest on recorded search-result snippets titles with source URLs, rather than full page reads: H.4.1 levels, ON RRP take-up, SOFR EFFR prints, T-bill yields, HY IG OAS, FX-swap basis bp , eurodollar pricing, and the TGA level.
  • IndexBox TGA values are parsed from published article titles e.g., "-6483-billion" read as -$6.48B ; treat as approximate until confirmed against the Treasury daily statement.
  • The $6.7T post-QT balance-sheet figure is from an article title with unspecified date; the H.4.1 level for week ending Aug 5, 2026 remains the authoritative checkpoint.

Unresolved risk

  • September FOMC is binary. The hike-tilt reversed to cut-pricing on a single weak jobs print Reuters — elevated two-way policy risk for liquidity conditions.
  • Stagflation vector. Weak payrolls + unemployment steady at 4.1% IndexBox + Brent +5.45% m m TradingEconomics — a growth scare combined with oil pressure would test the risk-asset rally.
  • Supply absorption. $125B mid-August refunding + Q3 borrowing estimate +$68B PrimeRates against a roughly flat TGA; money-fund demand and the bill-vs-coupon mix at the Aug 11–13 auctions are the key watchpoints.
  • Data-verification risk. The level gaps above mean several quantitative claims rest on titles anchors only; re-verify before any investment decision.

Sources index primary

  • Fed H.4.1 current release · ALFRED H.4.1 release 2026-08-06 · Fed May 2026 balance sheet report
  • Treasury daily statement fiscaldata · Treasury refunding PR sb0590 · Treasury daily bill rates 2026
  • NY Fed SOFR · NY Fed repo desk · FRED RRPONTSYD · FRED WALCL · FRED WTREGEN · FRED HY OAS
  • ICI MMF statistics · CME cross-currency basis watch

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<sub Report details — Prepared 2026-08-08 · Coverage week Mon Aug 3 – Fri Aug 7, 2026 vs Jul 27–31 · Market data as of 2026-08-07; TGA daily through 2026-08-06; H.4.1 for week ending Aug 5, 2026 released Aug 6 · Loop: Weekly Dollar Liquidity Report loop-095c989a-df34-4d81-836c-e6c12657aea7 · Run: looprun-017a1d06-317a-4801-a4ff-456978e2ba03 · Session: loopsession-5aba30da-53e5-4750-9edb-7e87795a4da7 · Workspace ws-01 · Status: research complete — pending investment-team review. This report is for internal review and does not constitute an investment recommendation; no trading actions were taken.< sub