Public Kempax report

Weekly Dollar Liquidity Report · 2026-08-29

Kempax Research

Loop report · 2026-08-29

Weekly Dollar Liquidity Report — Week of Aug 24–28, 2026

As of: 2026-08-30 UTC · Latest complete market close: Aug 28, 2026

Liquidity stance: Watch — observed market prices were mildly constructive, but liquidity confirmation is incomplete. The Treasury General Account TGA rose from $933.2B on Aug 21 to $950.8B on Aug 27 , after a $994.0B Aug 25 peak ; the observed Aug 25–27 draw was $43.2B , but Aug 24 and Aug 28 are missing. Current Fed balance-sheet, reserve, ON RRP, credit-spread, and cross-currency-basis rows were not verified. Overnight rates stayed contained through Aug 27, while equities, credit ETFs, duration, and the volatility proxy improved; the dollar proxy also rose. That combination is more consistent with an orderly, policy rate-sensitive tape than with a confirmed broad liquidity expansion.

Executive summary

• The Fed balance-sheet signal is unresolved, not positive or negative. The Aug 27 H.4.1 release was located, but current total assets, Treasury holdings, reserve balances, reverse repos, and swap-line rows were not readable. The last verified observation remains Aug 19: total assets $6.7457T and reserves $2.9308T , versus $6.760T and $2.948T on Aug 12 H.4.1 Aug 27, H.4.1 current .
• TGA cash was higher versus the prior Friday, despite a partial late-week draw. The indexed daily sequence was $933.2B Aug 21 → $994.0B Aug 25 → $959.4B Aug 26 → $950.8B Aug 27 : +$17.6B versus Aug 21 and −$43.2B from the Aug 25 peak. This is a partial stock path, not a complete weekly flow Aug 21, Aug 25, Aug 26, Aug 27 .
• Treasury supply remained a term-premium risk, not evidence of funding failure. Two-, five-, and seven-year notes settled Aug 25–27. Indexed results report provisional stops of 4.393% for the five-year and 4.512% for the seven-year; bid-to-cover, allocations, and cash settlement were not verified. The comparable prior reference is the Aug 19 20-year reopening at 5.204% , which is not a like-for-like auction comparison Treasury auctions, five-year result, seven-year result .
• Overnight funding looked contained through Aug 27. SOFR printed 3.65%, 3.66%, 3.64%, and 3.64% on Aug 24–27; EFFR was 3.63% each day. The SOFR low was 2bp above the prior verified Aug 17–20 low of 3.62%, while the Aug 28 print remains missing. This supports “no spike in retrieved prints,” not a full-week no-stress conclusion New York Fed SOFR, Aug 27 SOFR, Aug 27 EFFR .
• Credit proxies improved, but cash-spread confirmation is missing. $HYG rose 0.16% and $LQD 0.41% over Aug 21–28, versus −0.13% and −0.19% the prior week. The last verified high-yield OAS was 275bp on Aug 20 , up from 271bp on Aug 13; no Aug 28 OAS is asserted HY OAS, weekly $HYG history .
• Global dollar funding remains an open question. No current cross-currency basis or FX-swap premium was retrieved, and the last verified Fed swap-line stock— $123M on Aug 19 —is stale. The dollar proxy $UUP nevertheless gained 1.00% for the week, versus −0.75% the prior week CME basis watch, Fed swap operations, weekly $UUP history .
• Cross-asset price action was mildly constructive but internally mixed. $SPY +0.47% , $QQQ +0.42% , $TLT +1.01% , $HYG +0.16% , $LQD +0.41% , and $VIXY −3.02% ; six-month changes were +12.15%, +17.97%, −8.74%, −0.73%, −4.45%, and −36.61% , respectively. The simultaneous rise in $UUP and $TLT argues against reading the week as a simple “easy liquidity” signal market histories .

Bottom line: the evidence supports watch mildly constructive observed price action , not a firm liquidity-expansion call. A TGA draw would be reserve-positive mechanically, but current reserves and ON RRP are unverified; the partial TGA sequence ended above Aug 21. Funding evidence is incomplete, and the dollar’s strength alongside improving risk proxies points to policy, rates, or defensive demand as a competing explanation.

Charts

TGA ended above Aug 21 despite a partial late-week draw

Overnight rates stayed contained through Aug 27; Friday is missing

Current-week market proxies improved while the dollar strengthened

Detailed findings

1. Federal Reserve balance sheet H.4.1 release Aug 27 — week ending Aug 26

The Federal Reserve’s Aug 27 H.4.1 release is available, but current total assets, securities held outright, Treasury bills, Agency MBS, reserve balances, total reverse repos, foreign-official repos, and central-bank swaps were not readable in the evidence set. No Aug 26 value is asserted H.4.1 Aug 27; H.4.1 current .

The last verified observation remains the week ending Aug 19: total assets $6.7457T , Treasury securities held outright $4.542T , T-bills $537.8B , Agency MBS $1.931T , reserve balances $2.9308T , total reverse repos $373.7B , and central-bank liquidity swaps $123M . On Aug 12, total assets were $6.760T and reserves $2.948T . These are stale baselines, not current-week readings H.4.1 Aug 20 .

2. Treasury General Account

The indexed TGA sequence shows a cash build followed by a partial draw: $933.2B Aug 21 → $994.0B Aug 25 → $959.4B Aug 26 → $950.8B Aug 27 . The observed path was +$17.6B from Aug 21 to Aug 27 but −$43.2B from the Aug 25 peak to Aug 27. Aug 24 and Aug 28 are unavailable, so neither figure is a complete Aug 24–28 weekly flow. The Aug 27 indexed level is $14.4B above the last verified Aug 19 H.4.1 DTS reference of $936.4B. These are stock-to-stock calculations, not a claim about reserve movements Aug 21, Aug 25, Aug 26, Aug 27, Treasury DTS .

The mechanical interpretation is conditional: a TGA draw returns cash to the private sector, all else equal, while a TGA build absorbs cash. The current reserve counterpart cannot be confirmed without the Aug 26 H.4.1 rows.

3. Reverse repo facility

The current ON RRP amount was not verified. The last verified reading was $0.20B on Aug 21 , effectively zero; it should not be carried into a current-week net-liquidity estimate. The remaining private cash buffer is therefore an open input, not a confirmed cushion FRED RRPONTSYD, New York Fed repo operations .

4. Bank reserves

Current Aug 26 reserve balances were not verified. The last verified reading was $2.9308T on Aug 19 , down $16.8B from Aug 12’s $2.948T ; reserves had fallen $72.2B over the two weeks from Aug 5. The prior data showed an ample-reserve plateau, but it is not valid to extend that classification through Aug 28 without the current H.4.1 release H.4.1 Aug 20, H.4.1 Aug 27 .

5. Treasury issuance, auctions, and the buyback program

Treasury auctioned two-, five-, and seven-year notes on Aug 25–27. Indexed results report provisional stops of 4.393% for the five-year Aug 26 auction and 4.512% for the seven-year Aug 27 auction; bid-to-cover, allocations, cash settlement, and the two-year result were not verified. The last verified prior reference was the Aug 19 20-year reopening at 5.204% , which is not a like-for-like comparison. Do not infer auction quality from yield alone Treasury auction data, TreasuryDirect results, five-year result, seven-year result .

The Aug 19 long-end buyback expansion remains a prior-week policy input; no current-week operation or settlement is asserted. The issuance channel remains a supply and term-premium risk, not a demonstrated funding failure.

6. Money markets

SOFR was 3.65% Aug 24, 3.66% Aug 25, 3.64% Aug 26, and 3.64% Aug 27 . EFFR was 3.63% on each date. Compared with the prior verified Aug 17–20 SOFR range of 3.62–3.66% , the current observed range has a 2bp higher low and the same high. The Aug 28 print is missing; current values are title-level secondary observations. The defensible conclusion is only that no spike appears in the retrieved prints New York Fed SOFR, Aug 24 SOFR, Aug 25 SOFR, Aug 26 SOFR, Aug 27 SOFR .

7. Credit conditions

The latest directly verified high-yield OAS remains 275bp on Aug 20 , up from 271bp on Aug 13 . Current Aug 28 HY IG OAS and Chicago Fed NFCI observations were not verified. The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index was −0.8107 on Aug 21 , a dated reading consistent with below-average measured stress at that time; it is not a current-week value HY OAS, FSI, Chicago Fed NFCI .

ETF proxies were orderly: $HYG +0.16% and $LQD +0.41% over Aug 21–28, after −0.13% and −0.19% the prior week. That is observed price improvement, not proof that cash credit spreads tightened. Six-month returns remained −0.73% for $HYG and −4.45% for $LQD weekly $HYG, six-month $HYG, weekly $LQD, six-month $LQD .

8. Global dollar funding FX

No current numeric cross-currency basis, FX-swap-implied dollar premium, or offshore-dollar stress measure was retrieved. The last verified Fed swap-line stock was $123M on Aug 19 , too stale to rule out a current-week move. The correct status is unresolved , not “no global dollar stress” CME basis watch, CME EUR USD basis index, Fed swap operations .

9. Cross-market impact assessment

Close-to-close market history for Aug 21–28, Aug 14–21, and Feb 27–Aug 28 shows:

• Equities: $SPY +0.47% this week versus −1.37% prior week; six-month +12.15% ; latest close 769.35 . $QQQ +0.42% versus −2.41% ; six-month +17.97% ; latest 716.43 weekly $SPY, six-month $SPY, weekly $QQQ, six-month $QQQ .
• Bonds: $TLT +1.01% versus +0.01% ; six-month −8.74% ; latest 82.88 . This is consistent with lower duration yields over the week, but no current Treasury curve level was verified, so the mechanism is an inference weekly $TLT, six-month $TLT .
• U.S. dollar: $UUP +1.00% versus −0.75% ; six-month +4.06% ; latest 28.18 . This is a dollar ETF proxy, not a direct DXY observation weekly $UUP, six-month $UUP .
• Overall risk appetite: $VIXY −3.02% versus −2.25% ; six-month −36.61% ; latest 17.66 . $HYG and $LQD also rose, which is consistent with orderly risk appetite, but $VIXY is a volatility-futures ETF rather than spot VIX weekly $VIXY, six-month $VIXY .

The implications are conditional: equities and credit proxies are mildly constructive; $TLT improved but does not establish that term premium eased; $UUP strengthened, arguing against a simple reserve-abundance narrative; and the combined tape is orderly but not liquidity-confirmed. The simultaneous rise in $UUP and $TLT alongside improving equities and credit proxies is compatible with policy rate repricing or defensive dollar demand, not a single proven driver. The official Aug 28 Federal Reserve speech and a same-day indexed report of higher rate-hike expectations are event markers, not a full policy interpretation because the speech text was not verified in the current evidence set official speech, indexed report .

Unresolved risks

• Primary-series gap: current Aug 26 H.4.1 reserves, ON RRP, reverse repos, and swap-line rows are missing; current Aug 28 SOFR EFFR, DTS, HY IG OAS, NFCI, Treasury curve, and cross-currency-basis FX-swap values are also unverified.
• TGA ambiguity: the Aug 27 level was higher than Aug 21, while the Aug 25–27 segment was a sizable draw. Missing endpoints prevent a complete weekly liquidity-flow call and a reserve reconciliation.
• Plumbing versus prices: equities, credit ETFs, duration, and volatility improved, but current funding confirmation is absent. A TGA draw is reserve-positive mechanically, not an observed Aug 24–28 reserve increase.
• Dollar risk disagreement: $UUP rose with $SPY, $QQQ, $HYG, and $LQD. This is inconsistent with a one-factor “more dollars, weaker dollar, higher beta” story and leaves policy rates or defensive demand as credible alternatives.
• Evidence quality: TGA and auction figures are indexed or provisional; SOFR EFFR current values are title-level; no missing value is interpolated. Human review is required before any investment decision.

Next-week watch

• Reconcile the Aug 26 H.4.1 total assets, Treasury holdings, reserve balances, ON RRP, foreign-official repo, and swap-line rows with the partial TGA sequence.
• Capture the missing Aug 28 SOFR EFFR, ON RRP, and DTS observations and verify current Treasury auction award and settlement data.
• Refresh HY IG OAS, NFCI, Treasury curve, and cross-currency-basis FX-swap readings before treating the price action as a confirmed liquidity signal.
• Monitor post–Jackson Hole follow-through in the dollar, duration, and front-end rate expectations; a renewed TGA build with firmer funding rates would shift the stance more defensive.

Sources index primary

• Federal Reserve H.4.1 Aug 27, 2026 · H.4.1 current series · H.4.1 Aug 20 PDF
• Treasury Daily Treasury Statement · Treasury securities auctions · TreasuryDirect results
• New York Fed reference rates · repo operations · swap operations
• FRED HY OAS · FRED RRPONTSYD · FRED financial stress · Chicago Fed NFCI
• CME cross-currency basis watch · official Aug 28 Federal Reserve speech
• Weekly market history for $SPY · six-month market history for $SPY

<sub Report details — Coverage: Aug 24–28, 2026 · Data as of: 2026-08-30 UTC; market close Aug 28 · Status: research complete; candidate for human review · Owner: research lead portfolio managers · Closure: report candidate written; no trading, scheduling, external communication, or publication action was taken · Next step: refresh the open primary series and obtain human review before any investment decision.< sub