Public Kempax report

Weekly Dollar Liquidity Report · 2026-08-15

Kempax Research

Loop report · 2026-08-15

Weekly Dollar Liquidity Report — Week of Aug 10–14, 2026

Liquidity stance: Ample — a refunding-week drain absorbed without market stress. The August quarterly refunding moved $52B from bank reserves into the Treasury General Account TGA to $959.4B, 95.5th percentile since 2003 and pulled reserves down $55.4B to $2.948T — yet SOFR eased 2–3bp to 3.62%, commercial paper stayed orderly, and the S&P 500 printed an all-time high. This is fiscal plumbing a cash raise , not a tightening signal: the policy base case is a September hold at 73.5% with a 25% hike tail. The real stress point is the long end, where the 30-year auction cleared at 5.216% — the highest since 2001 — against record money-fund cash.

Executive summary

  • Refunding-week drain absorbed without stress. H.4.1 release of Aug 13 week ending Aug 12 : total assets $6.760T +$10.9B WoW , bank reserves $2.948T −$55.4B , TGA $959.4B +$52.1B , ON RRP $0.25B on Aug 14 Fed H.4.1, eco3min TGA, eco3min ON RRP .
  • The TGA build is the August refunding cash raise, not a policy shift. Daily DTS path: $966.9B Aug 10 → $997.3B Aug 11; public-debt cash issues $299.4B vs redemptions $261.9B → $959.4B Aug 12, −$37.9B . TGA at the 95.5th percentile since 2003 IndexBox Aug 11, IndexBox Aug 12 .
  • QT remains over; the $10B week T-bill buying continues. SOMA bills $533.5B +$8.6B WoW; +$338B since Dec 3, 2025 ; MBS $1.931T. Net liquidity balance sheet − TGA − ON RRP ≈ $5.80T , down $40B WoW — a modest, refunding-driven drag H.4.1 .
  • Money markets calm through the drain. SOFR eased to 3.62–3.64% Aug 10–13: 3.63 3.64 3.62 3.62 , mid-range of the 3.50–3.75% funds target; commercial paper normal AA fin 1-day 3.61%, A2 P2 30-day 3.91% on Aug 13 sofrrate.com, Fed CP release .
  • Supply absorbed, but at a price at the long end. 10-yr auction Aug 12 : 4.683% high yield, bid-to-cover 2.53x down 0.06 ; 30-yr auction Aug 13 : 5.216% — highest 30-year yield since 2001 , bid-to-cover 2.39x, dealers just 11.5% thevaultreport, PrimeRates .
  • Policy: September base case swung back to a hold. Polymarket: Hold 73.5% Hike 25% Cut 1.7% for the Sep 15–16 FOMC; July PPI "consolidated expectations of a Federal Reserve hold" and reduced hike expectations are "largely priced in." The prior week's post-jobs cut pricing 34% fully unwound. July FOMC minutes release Aug 19 macroodds, Saxo, Fed calendar .
  • Macro cross-currents: inflation cooling, consumer cracking. July CPI: headline +0.1% m m, 3.4% YoY from 3.5% ; core +0.2% m m, 2.5% YoY from 2.6% . July PPI: final demand flat m m, 4.7% YoY from 5.5% . July retail sales −0.6% m m — largest decline since May 2025. UMich Aug prelim 51.0 from 55.2 , with 1-yr inflation expectations 4.3% from 4.2% usinflationcalculator, Saxo, marketdaily, wallstreettimes .
  • Credit: HY OAS flat at 271 bps Aug 13 — 9th percentile of the trailing 5 years, "very tight"; unchanged WoW dollarliquidity.com . MMF assets at a record $7.928T +$18.3B WoW — dry powder at an all-time high ICI via PR Newswire .
  • Markets: risk-on week, then a consumer-data wobble. S&P 500 record close 7,798.99 on Aug 13 first print above 7,800 at 7,816.70 intraday , 7,785.76 −0.17% on Aug 14 after the soft retail-sales UMich prints; third straight weekly gain. 10-yr 4.65–4.68% ≈flat WoW , 2-yr 4.15–4.20%; DXY 99.8 ≈flat WoW, −2% from late-July 101.70 ; gold $4,357.63 +2.5% WoW Saxo, Fool, yieldcurve.pro, OneUpTrader, goldprice.org .
  • Global dollar funding: no stress signals. Fed FX-swap line usage $132M — effectively idle; the Fed's own books show no dollar-funding stress H.4.1 .

Bottom line: dollar liquidity is ample and the refunding drain was absorbed with falling short rates and record cash on the sidelines — a resilience signal, not a tightening signal. The offsets: a live 25% September hike tail, 30-year supply at 25-year-high yields, and stagflation-lite consumer prints UMich 51.0, retail sales −0.6%, 1-yr inflation expectations 4.3% . Net bias for risk appetite: constructive but guarded .

---

Charts

Reserves fell $55B as the TGA built $52B — refunding plumbing, not policy

TGA daily path DTS : refunding raise peaked at $997B on Aug 11

SOFR eased 2–3bp through the drain — no funding stress

---

Detailed findings by segment

1. Federal Reserve balance sheet H.4.1, release 2026-08-13 — week ending Aug 12 - Total assets $6,759,955M $6.760T , +$10.9B WoW prior $6.749T — consistent with the ongoing $10B week T-bill purchase program H.4.1 20260813 . - Treasury securities held outright $4,538,288M $4.538T , of which T-bills $533,509M $533.5B , +$8.6B WoW from $524.9B; +$338.0B since Dec 3, 2025's $195.5B . Agency MBS $1,930,855M $1.931T — principal roll continues into bills H.4.1; PrimeRates context . - Reserve balances $2,947,630M $2.948T , −$55.4B WoW from $3.003T Aug 5 — the largest weekly reserve draw since April's range-high readings H.4.1 . - Reverse repurchase agreements total $358,117M — dominated by foreign-official accounts $355B ; the ON RRP facility itself was $0.25B on Aug 14 H.4.1, eco3min . - Central bank liquidity swaps $132M — swap lines effectively idle H.4.1 . - Net liquidity assets − TGA − ON RRP ≈ $5.80T derived , down $40B WoW from ≈$5.84T — a modest, refunding-driven drag; the ON RRP cushion that once absorbed balance-sheet swings remains exhausted. - Driver: August refunding settlements moved cash from bank reserves into the TGA; the Fed's bill purchases +$8.6B offset part of the draw. Not a policy shift.

2. Treasury General Account - Weekly H.4.1 WTREGEN, Aug 12 close : $959,405M $959.4B ; weekly average $963,950M — +$52.1B WoW from $907.3B; 95.5th percentile since 2003 "historically high" H.4.1, eco3min TGA . - Daily DTS, IndexBox : Aug 10 $966,851M +$12,738M; tracker ; Aug 11 +$30.5B to $997.3B public-debt cash issues $299.4B vs redemptions $261.9B — the August refunding settlement; tracker ; Aug 12 −$37.9B to ≈$959.4B tracker ; Aug 13 ≈$966.6B title-only, unverified; tracker . - Driver and interpretation: the classic refunding-week pattern — cash raised into the TGA on auction settlements, then drawn down on benefit coupon payments. A $950–1,000B TGA is a persistent passive drain on reserves, but the weekly move is already reversing as disbursements occur; watch the next leg as Aug 14–17 settlements complete.

3. Reverse repo facility - ON RRP $0.25B on Aug 14 — effectively zero all week; 7.4th percentile, "historically low"; the $2,553.7B Dec-30-2022 peak is fully drained eco3min . - Driver: the facility's drain offset 110% of QT through early 2026; that cushion is gone, so any renewed balance-sheet contraction or further TGA build now hits reserves one-for-one — this week's −$55.4B reserves draw is the mechanical demonstration.

4. Bank reserves - $2.948T Aug 12 , −$55.4B WoW — largest weekly draw since April; the "ample" plateau $2.88–3.18T intact since Jan 2026 H.4.1 . - Driver: the TGA refunding build, partially offset by Fed T-bill purchases. See chart above.

5. Treasury issuance and auctions - August quarterly refunding $125B: 3- 10- 30-yr settled this week. - 10-yr Aug 12 : high yield 4.683%, bid-to-cover 2.53x down 0.06 , indirect 76.7% — "demand softened" thevaultreport . - 30-yr Aug 13 : high yield 5.216% — highest since 2001 ; bid-to-cover 2.39x vs 2.44 July reopening ; indirect 66.8% $16.6B , direct 21.6%, dealers just 11.5% — "real money showed up," but "demand was not present at 5.058%, where the same maturity cleared five weeks earlier"; secondary 30-yr closed 5.24% on Aug 12 PrimeRates, thevaultreport . - 3-yr Aug 11 : results not retrieved data gap . - Q3 2026 net borrowing estimate +$68B — coupon supply headwind continues PrimeRates . - Driver and interpretation: long-end absorption worked at a price — the highest 30-year auction yield in 25 years, a real-money signal about deficit inflation concerns rather than a liquidity-stress signal. Indirect foreign-official demand stayed strong at 66.8–76.7%.

6. Money markets - SOFR 3.62% Aug 13 ; Aug 10–13: 3.63 3.64 3.62 3.62 — eased 2–3bp WoW; MTD avg 3.64%, MTD range 3.62–3.66%; daily volumes $2.93–3.06T; mid-range of the 3.50–3.75% funds target sofrrate.com . - Commercial paper Aug 13 : AA financial 1-day 3.61%, 90-day 3.79%; AA nonfinancial 1-day 3.62%, 30-day 3.71%, 90-day 3.77%; A2 P2 nonfinancial 1-day 3.81%, 30-day 3.91% — orderly, A2 P2-to-AA spreads 19–21bp at the front Fed CP release . - Front-end yields: 2-yr 4.15–4.20%; 10-yr 4.65% Aug 13 close , 4.68% Aug 14 ; 30-yr 5.2–5.24% — curve very steep 10s30s ≈ 55bp; 2s10s ≈ 50bp Saxo, yieldcurve.pro . - Money market funds: $7,927.58B $7.928T week ended Aug 12, +$18.26B WoW from $7,909.32B — new all-time record ; government funds +$20.69B, prime +$1.79B, tax-exempt −$4.22B ICI via PR Newswire . - Driver: the drain pulled cash from reserves into bills MMFs rather than stressing funding; record cash provides a large absorption pool for upcoming supply.

7. Credit conditions - HY OAS 271.0 bps Aug 13 — flat WoW 271 bps on Aug 6 ; 9th percentile of the trailing 5 years "very tight," "easing bias" ; <350 bps remains the late-cycle complacency zone dollarliquidity.com; FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 . - Gaps: IG BBB OAS level and SLOOS Q3 content not retrieved this run.

8. Global dollar funding FX - Fed swap lines $132M — idle; the Fed's own books show no dollar-funding stress H.4.1 . - Cross-currency basis: no fresh live prints retrievable this run. The mid-2026 theme persists qualitatively — elevated basis baseline with episodic stress-window spikes illustrative 1-yr EUR USD basis 25–75bp quiet, 100–200+bp in stress; published Jul 15, 2026, illustrative contentwave . Gap: live basis levels anchors: CME cross-currency basis watch . - Dollar: soft but stable. DXY 99.84 on Aug 14 ≈flat WoW; −2% from 101.70 late-July; August low 99.50; 200-day MA 99.18 below; RSI 41.2 — "recovery from oversold rather than a shift to strength" ; geopolitical floor US–Iran gridlock, oil $83 vs rate-expectations headwind OneUpTrader . - Gold $4,357.63 oz Aug 14 −1.26% on the day; +2.5% WoW from $4,252.16 Aug 7 — extended safe-haven dollar-hedge bid; silver $64.57 goldprice.org Aug 14, Aug 7 . - Gap: TIC foreign-official holdings monthly, lags; next release mid late-August .

Likely impact on markets

  • Equities — positive. S&P 500 record close 7,798.99 on Aug 13 +0.65%; first intraday print above 7,800 at 7,816.70 ; Aug 14 7,785.76 −0.17% on the soft retail-sales UMich prints; Nasdaq 26,729.16 −0.28% , Dow 53,732.41 −0.20% on Aug 14; third consecutive weekly gain . The refunding drain was absorbed with falling SOFR — the liquidity regime remains a tailwind; the consumer-data wobble and the September FOMC are the two watch items Saxo, Fool .
  • Bonds — mixed. Front end steady money rates 3.6%; 2-yr 4.15–4.20% ; the long end is the story — the 30-yr auction at 5.216% highest since 2001 is supply term-premium stress, not funding stress. The CPI PPI cool prints put a floor under duration on Aug 13, but deficit inflation concerns keep the 10-yr pinned near 4.65–4.70% 97th percentile of its 52-week range ; record MMF cash means the buyers exist, at concession prices that erode long-end carry yieldcurve.pro, PrimeRates .
  • Dollar — soft-to-flat. DXY 99.8 with a geopolitical floor; gold +2.5% WoW to a record-adjacent $4,357.63 as the mirror of dollar softness OneUpTrader, goldprice.org .
  • Risk appetite — constructive but guarded. Record MMF cash $7.93T , tight HY spreads 271 bp , record equity index, easing inflation prints — versus UMich 51.0, retail sales −0.6%, 1-yr inflation expectations 4.3%, oil $83, and a 25% September hike tail. The dominant liquidity event this week refunding TGA build, −$55B reserves was absorbed with falling SOFR and normal CP — a resilience signal, not a tightening signal.

Evidence references and caveats

Evidence tiers: recorded search results IndexBox TGA daily trackers, auction trackers, ICI MMF release, CPI PPI retail-sales articles, DXY trackers, FOMC probability pages — titles, URLs, and snippets recorded . Page-level values H.4.1 tables, SOFR, CP, auction details, yield DXY gold levels were retrieved directly from publisher pages because the usual page-reading service was unavailable this week; they are second-tier evidence — all URLs are real and citable, but re-verify against primary sources Fed H.4.1, FRED, ICI, Treasury before any investment decision. One source tickerdaily.com's Aug 14 recap was discarded because it contradicted multiple independent sources on every material figure S&P level, yields, CPI, DXY, September odds .

Data gaps explicit : 1. Aug 13 daily TGA $966.6B is title-only from the IndexBox tracker page 403 — unverified; Aug 14 daily TGA not retrieved; Aug 12 level is derived $997.3B − $37.9B . 2. 3-year auction results Aug 11 not retrieved. 3. Cross-currency basis live levels not retrieved — qualitative theme only. 4. EFFR latest print not retrieved 3.63% prior week used as last known; SOFR CP consistency supports no material change . 5. IG BBB OAS, CP outstandings, SLOOS content not retrieved. 6. TIC foreign-official holdings — monthly, no fresh print. 7. TGA series basis: daily DTS vs weekly WTREGEN differ by design $966.9B DTS Aug 10 vs $959.4B weekly Aug 12 — series are not interchangeable.

Unresolved risk: - September FOMC Sep 15–16 is a live two-way event — hold base case 73.5% with a 25% hike tail and 2% cut, after the post-jobs cut pricing fully unwound macroodds, Saxo . July minutes Aug 19 are the next policy input. - Long-end supply valuation risk: 30-yr at 5.216% highest since 2001 with +$68B Q3 net borrowing ahead — record MMF cash means buyers exist, but at concession prices that erode long-end carry and argue for steepness. - Stagflation-lite: UMich 51.0 + 1-yr inflation expectations 4.3% + retail sales −0.6% + oil $83 versus cooling CPI PPI — a consumer-led growth scare with sticky inflation expectations would test the record-equity rally-in-gold backdrop wallstreettimes, marketdaily . - ON RRP cushion exhausted: any further TGA build or balance-sheet change hits reserves one-for-one; this week's −$55.4B draw is the mechanical demonstration eco3min . - Data-verification risk: second-tier values should be re-verified against primary sources before decisions; the next H.4.1 releases on Aug 20.

Sources index primary

  • Fed H.4.1 release 2026-08-13 · H.4.1 current · Fed CP rates release Aug 13 · Fed August 2026 calendar FOMC minutes Aug 19
  • eco3min: TGA dataset $963.95B wk-avg, 95.5th pct · eco3min: ON RRP dataset $0.25B Aug 14
  • IndexBox: TGA Aug 10 · Aug 11 $997.3B · Aug 12 −$37.9B · Aug 13 title-only
  • sofrrate.com SOFR Aug 2026 · NY Fed SOFR · FRED SOFR · FRED RRPONTSYD · FRED WTREGEN · FRED WALCL
  • ICI MMF weekly assets record $7.928T · dollarliquidity.com HY OAS 271bp · FRED HY OAS · FRED BBB OAS
  • thevaultreport: 10-yr 4.683%, 2.53x & 30-yr 5.216%, 2.39x auctions · PrimeRates: 30-yr auction costliest since 2001 · PrimeRates: Q3 borrowing +$68B
  • yieldcurve.pro: 10-yr 4.68% Aug 14 · Saxo: S&P record close Aug 13; PPI · Fool: Aug 14 pullback; retail sales
  • macroodds: Sep 15–16 FOMC odds Hold 73.5% Hike 25% Cut 1.7% · OneUpTrader: DXY 99.84 Aug 14
  • goldprice.org Aug 14 $4,357.63 · goldprice.org Aug 7 $4,252.16
  • usinflationcalculator: July CPI 3.4% YoY · wallstreettimes: UMich 51.0 · marketdaily: retail sales −0.6%
  • contentwave: mid-2026 FX-swap cross-currency theme Jul 15, 2026 · CME cross-currency basis watch
  • Prior-week baseline Aug 3–7 for WoW deltas: reserves $3.003T, TGA $907.3B, total assets $6.749T, HY OAS 271, SOFR 3.65%.

---

<sub Report details — Prepared 2026-08-16 · Coverage week Mon Aug 10 – Fri Aug 14, 2026 vs prior week Aug 3–7 · Data as of: H.4.1 week ending Aug 12 released Aug 13 ; ON RRP through Aug 14; SOFR through Aug 13; CP Aug 13; MMF week ended Aug 12; TGA daily DTS Aug 10–13; markets through Aug 14 close · Loop: Weekly Dollar Liquidity Report loop-095c989a-df34-4d81-836c-e6c12657aea7 · Run: looprun-d74cdc3d-e79c-46cc-90c4-2a62b88aa55b · Session: Author weekly dollar liquidity report · Workspace ws-01 · Status: research complete. This report is for internal review and does not constitute an investment recommendation; no trading actions were taken.< sub